MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 29, 2020

[ Saturday, November 28, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, November 30, 2020 ]

DAY 60 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/30/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.865
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 44

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 33
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 140

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-30 07:00:07OBSERVATION20216014047.7100425.8499436.7799958.48413500.2410.4510.69TT15.7100443.7100433339.29805460297 19.8435532306370.8650940680153787 5312129WETL
2020-11-30 03:00:07OBSERVATION20216014047.7100425.8499436.7799958.48413500.2410.4510.69TT15.7100443.7100433339.29805460297 19.8435532306370.8650940680153787 5312129WETL
2020-11-29 11:00:02FORECAST20216014045.5831.0438.3159.671454952760.01230.252310.4510.7023TT13.5841.5833340.0767696451720.2928756403620.81339314171031874312128WETL
2020-11-29 07:00:07FORECAST20216014044.2430.9837.6159.6659736427010.01630.256310.4510.7063TT12.2440.2433340.0731800691520.2907973985950.77532708421352874312128WETL
2020-11-29 02:59:08FORECAST20216014039.5530.4334.9959.8394407987350.01240.252410.4510.7024TT7.5535.5533340.1867552387520.3565852006230.61323778639353873312127WETL
2020-11-28 22:59:05FORECAST20216014043.8529.1936.5258.6688916479430.00670.016710.4510.4667TT11.8547.8533339.4193833406519.9133590244240.76347387446251874311124WETL
2020-11-28 19:00:03FORECAST20216014043.3831.0337.20558.6270048126480.0070.01710.4510.467TT11.3847.3833339.3918814627419.8975294678890.74874411024408874311124WETL
2020-11-28 15:00:04FORECAST20216014043.3231.7737.54558.6431299259910.00550.015510.4510.4655TT11.3247.3233339.402469166619.9036230965390.7468294615332874311124WETL
2020-11-28 11:00:05FORECAST20216014043.6631.3237.4958.4842189802640.0150.02510.4510.475TT11.6647.6633339.2981097653119.8435849511040.75757709095338874311124WETL
2020-11-28 06:59:09FORECAST20216014043.5130.3536.9358.6807714877130.01230.032310.4510.4823TT11.5146.5133339.4271828220819.9178489519010.7528661442269874311124WETL
2020-11-28 03:00:07FORECAST20216014043.2430.6936.96558.981867499840.01420.114210.4510.5642TT11.2442.2433339.6247830933220.0317039560720.74426472705799874312128WETL
2020-11-27 23:00:05FORECAST20216014042.8829.5436.2161.3486100942850.05880.368810.4510.8188TT10.8851.8833341.1727538288820.9304742494410.73255798109718874312128WETL
2020-11-27 19:00:05FORECAST20216014042.9629.7236.3461.3473589903350.06230.352310.4510.8023TT10.9649.9633341.171937998720.9299973578350.73518262104215874312128WETL
2020-11-27 15:00:04FORECAST20216014043.1232.0237.5761.3194946703410.06120.361210.4510.8112TT11.1251.1233341.153767331420.9193766176440.74039237859527874312128WETL
2020-11-27 11:00:04FORECAST20216014042.8232.7837.860.7910522017250.03930.439310.4510.8893TT10.8250.8233340.8089198914720.7181328399360.73058093874785874312128WETL
2020-11-27 07:00:07FORECAST20216014042.1330.636.36560.5040752178270.00910.389110.4510.8391TT10.1350.1333340.6214523494120.6089859737540.70733255201062874312128WETL
2020-11-27 03:00:07FORECAST20216014042.4229.235.8160.9000585956040.03090.440910.4510.8909TT10.4244.4233340.8800924497420.7596176042640.71721653039408874312128WETL
2020-11-26 22:59:13FORECAST20216014043.8930.8737.3859.2280364652130.0020.43210.3510.782TT11.8963.8933339.7862241470420.1248708741580.76470518367395874312128WETL
2020-11-26 18:59:54FORECAST20216014043.3531.5737.4659.4174926333980.00310.473110.3510.8231TT11.3561.3533339.9104034331520.1966238920040.7477877426206874312128WETL
2020-11-26 14:59:10FORECAST20216014042.9429.2536.09559.4127921127540.0020.44210.3510.792TT10.9455.9433339.9073231937820.1948431305150.73452768906192874312128WETL
2020-11-26 11:00:06FORECAST20216014037.0530.0833.56559.3604176421740.01690.416910.3510.7669TT5.0550.0533339.8729998469520.1750032162130.51512821005481873312127WETL
2020-11-26 07:00:07FORECAST20216014043.0431.3737.20559.291844801620.01740.427410.3610.7874TT11.0455.0433339.8280540762220.1490322415240.73779412014967874312128WETL
2020-11-26 03:00:07FORECAST20216014042.4330.236.31559.096972729110.00180.321810.3510.6718TT10.4354.4333339.7002832791520.0752583770190.71755448062924874312128WETL
2020-11-25 23:00:06FORECAST20216014040.2229.4234.8256.1440394203990.00330.36339.9110.2733TT8.2258.2233337.756388126218.9630079694490.63860220585092873312127WETL
2020-11-25 19:00:04FORECAST20216014040.2230.0635.1456.1357355959390.00220.45229.9210.3722TT8.2261.2233337.7509011936418.9598952866960.63860220585092873312127WETL
2020-11-25 15:00:06FORECAST20216014040.8729.1935.0356.7281394532090.00260.46269.9310.3926TT8.8758.8733338.1420546915519.1821696335370.66264191420885873312127WETL
2020-11-25 11:00:06FORECAST20216014041.5129.535.50557.1419561336750.00090.28099.9210.2009TT9.5159.5133338.4149413650619.3376917344620.68568111507699873312127WETL
2020-11-25 06:59:57FORECAST20216014041.5229.5135.51557.9494471717730.00090.230910.0810.3109TT9.5263.5233338.9466068712619.6417684889380.68603572517446873312127WETL
2020-11-25 03:00:07FORECAST20216014040.8627.1734.01558.5468379991450.00090.210910.210.4109TT8.8653.8633339.3392377219619.8672393776610.66227675347147873312127WETL
2020-11-24 23:00:06FORECAST20216014040.6428.6834.6658.5965485562870.0020.23210.6710.902TT8.6456.6433339.371882787819.8860210084140.65420511322581873312127WETL
2020-11-24 19:00:05FORECAST20216014040.6428.6834.6658.4517663692740.0020.23210.6610.892TT8.6457.6433339.2767924281119.8313278055240.65420511322581873312127WETL
2020-11-24 15:00:06FORECAST20216014040.7629.3235.0458.4831058981820.0020.21210.811.012TT8.7661.7633339.2973786376419.8431645258410.65861679581808873312127WETL
2020-11-24 11:00:06FORECAST20216014041.4131.2336.3257.0950127971400.0310.7410.77TT9.4156.4133338.3839995405419.3200387841150.68212563735892873311123.5WETL
2020-11-24 07:00:07FORECAST20216014041.4131.2436.32556.98866223889400.0310.8910.92TT9.4157.4133338.3138869055319.2800558315860.68212563735892873311123.5WETL
2020-11-24 03:00:07FORECAST20216014041.3629.7935.57556.96811422221100.0410.9210.96TT9.3666.3633338.3003382433219.2723323104580.68034155998831873311123.5WETL
2020-11-23 23:00:05FORECAST20216014040.3826.7433.5654.3176554462680.0020.19210.4610.652TT8.3867.3833336.5467743929918.2804317330310.64457505737214873312127WETL
2020-11-23 19:00:06FORECAST20216014040.4126.7533.5854.2695435893210.0020.19210.4110.602TT8.4166.4133336.5148340013318.2625064522890.64569107865986873312127WETL
2020-11-23 14:59:23FORECAST20216014040.0726.8733.4754.878460796270.00210.202110.6810.8821TT8.0772.0733336.9187928194718.489584763270.63297179161636873312127WETL
2020-11-23 11:00:06FORECAST20216014043.4332.0137.7254.3015454709400.1310.6110.74TT11.4369.4333336.5360797733818.2744292384260.75033379130473874312128WETL
2020-11-23 07:00:29FORECAST20216014043.4532.0437.74555.10654910358100.1310.8410.97TT11.4561.4533337.0699470050218.5747615859730.7509681669433874312128WETL
2020-11-23 03:00:07FORECAST20216014042.4430.2336.33555.81894058733800.1911.2411.43TT10.4468.4433337.5414855533918.8412081278660.71789223672572874312128WETL
2020-11-22 23:00:07FORECAST20216014039.930.7135.30557.70440829960.11410.344111.1511.4941TT7.965.933338.7853844397519.5494101496490.62655597890114873312127WETL
2020-11-22 19:00:06FORECAST20216014039.9130.7235.31557.1435278582630.01160.241611.0511.2916TT7.9164.9133338.4159772741719.3382828250480.62693437196278873312127WETL
2020-11-22 15:00:06FORECAST20216014041.3732.0536.7156.9244022053780.00220.202210.9111.1122TT9.3766.3733338.2715136762219.2559036991270.68069871094622873312127WETL
2020-11-22 11:00:06FORECAST20216014033.4931.132.29557.7117227262160.00050.120511.5711.6905TT1.4960.4933338.7901983931319.5521659920240.37530335041763872312126WETL
2020-11-22 07:00:08FORECAST20216014033.531.2332.36557.59404378960.00050.120511.6411.7605TT1.562.533338.712737731619.5078362490090.37568245958599872312126WETL
2020-11-22 03:00:07FORECAST20216014034.3632.9533.65559.3157371360560.00050.070511.8111.8805TT2.3652.3633339.8437150917620.1580804717230.40869799213661872311123WETL