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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 28, 2020

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DAY 59 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2020 03:00:07 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.39°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.25°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.595
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 50

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.08 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 57 in
SWE DAY: 34
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 139

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-24 03:00:07FORECAST20215913937.3929.2533.3257.1907168888780.03520.075210.8810.9552TT5.3950.3934339.4311274280919.4123095120120.59541020804369883411124WETL
2020-11-23 23:00:05FORECAST20215913938.0227.8632.9454.5068021129350.17380.243810.4110.6538TT6.0252.0234337.6630883847718.4049351394310.6223832664981883412128WETL
2020-11-23 19:00:06FORECAST20215913938.0327.8632.94554.4598382559880.17380.253810.3510.6038TT6.0351.0334337.6320433412618.3873864704040.62280701639942883412128WETL
2020-11-23 14:59:22FORECAST20215913937.5827.7532.66555.0566741296030.18390.253910.6310.8839TT5.5856.5834338.0263010490318.6106039040920.60359926968718883412128WETL
2020-11-23 11:00:06FORECAST20215913935.6231.3833.554.6858521376070.05610.176110.5610.7361TT3.6250.6234337.7814138569118.4718644530110.51758126344916883412128WETL
2020-11-23 07:00:29FORECAST20215913935.6431.3933.51555.4932611035810.05610.176110.7910.9661TT3.6442.6434338.3143232996118.7741650779460.51847020086185883412128WETL
2020-11-23 03:00:07FORECAST20215913937.0329.3633.19556.1463392540040.11670.236711.1911.4267TT5.0351.0334338.7445718721919.0192676527880.57978176880187883412128WETL
2020-11-22 23:00:06FORECAST20215913937.7530.3134.0357.9178269662670.22990.269911.1111.3799TT5.7550.7534339.9080426125619.6867351964770.61088790824747883412128WETL
2020-11-22 19:00:06FORECAST20215913937.7630.3234.0457.3556345249290.22990.259911.0211.2799TT5.7649.7634339.5393749862119.4744962985320.61131546679554883412128WETL
2020-11-22 15:00:06FORECAST20215913939.2130.9335.0757.1653728720450.19280.242810.8711.1128TT7.2150.2134339.4144882683119.4027557800320.67164655060964883412128WETL
2020-11-22 11:00:06FORECAST20215913939.5429.1634.3557.7492787262160.12130.231311.4611.6913TT7.5451.5434339.7975693772319.6230645444570.68483746801892883412128WETL
2020-11-22 07:00:07FORECAST20215913939.5529.1834.36557.6252584562660.12130.231311.5311.7613TT7.5553.5534339.7162513397219.5762367852450.68523364924284883412128WETL
2020-11-22 03:00:07FORECAST20215913939.4429.2334.33559.3480998027220.0650.12511.7511.875TT7.4443.4434340.8435993720420.2284199526510.68086402879763883412128WETL
2020-11-21 23:00:06FORECAST20215913937.6527.832.72562.4608198709110.07690.136911.6911.8269TT5.6540.6534342.8679535689321.4158134873770.60660501853845883412128WETL
2020-11-21 19:00:06FORECAST20215913937.6727.8232.74567.452730056410.07570.105711.4911.5957TT5.6738.6734346.0812059388423.3441221617890.60746264712138883412128WETL
2020-11-21 15:00:06FORECAST20215913935.5128.1231.81567.6573857979270.13640.166411.4211.5864TT3.5144.5134346.2120737732223.4238038431750.5126906635774883412128WETL
2020-11-21 11:00:05FORECAST20215913932.3128.8730.5968.6219664631550.02650.186511.3411.5265TT0.3126.3134346.8279631904223.8000168585370.37256530144603882412127WETL
2020-11-21 07:00:07FORECAST20215913930.1428.8829.5168.002121026690.02610.186111.2111.3961TT-1.8622.1434346.432362178723.5581354204380.28532740541205882412127WETL
2020-11-21 03:00:07FORECAST20215913930.5730.3330.4571.37575085856400.2711.5611.83TT-1.4325.5734348.5779872585124.8800155733430.30183588266214882412127WETL