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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 27, 2020

[ Thursday, November 26, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 28, 2020 ]

DAY 58 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2020 03:00:07 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.774
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 39

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.99 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 57 in
SWE DAY: 35
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 138

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 18.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-24 03:00:07FORECAST20215813842.5825.0733.82557.3237208888780.00060.990611.4912.4806TT10.5838.5835340.4984180679219.518636280430.773826781966639144141218WETL
2020-11-23 23:00:05FORECAST20215813841.4124.6133.0154.6213287796010.02290.882911.1612.0429TT9.4140.4135338.7255163528618.501637794750.735262730624779144131213.5WETL
2020-11-23 19:00:06FORECAST20215813841.4126.9434.17554.5747475893210.02340.943411.0511.9934TT9.4139.4135338.6948499926418.4841859481520.735262730624779144131213.5WETL
2020-11-23 14:59:22FORECAST20215813841.2726.633.93555.162508796270.02351.153511.1112.2635TT9.2745.2735339.0815321381518.7045879992230.73043435989479144141218WETL
2020-11-23 11:00:06FORECAST20215813840.7927.6134.254.8618788042740.06870.968711.2712.2387TT8.7940.7935338.8838228337618.5918032170350.713552503208149144131213.5WETL
2020-11-23 07:00:29FORECAST20215813840.827.6234.2155.6708731035810.06871.058711.4112.4687TT8.832.835339.4155146057718.8955580430040.713909260677159144141218WETL
2020-11-23 03:00:07FORECAST20215813840.4327.2633.84556.3045445873380.07051.270511.612.8705TT8.4340.4335339.8312173622819.1340419301440.700570993646439144141218WETL
2020-11-22 23:00:06FORECAST20215813840.1226.3133.21558.0569536329340.00461.414611.312.7146TT8.1239.1235340.9773595178819.7961067514090.689183562341089134141216WETL
2020-11-22 19:00:06FORECAST20215813840.1426.3133.22557.4957451915960.00461.244611.3712.6146TT8.1438.1435340.6108629924319.5836753881020.689923885311779134141216WETL
2020-11-22 15:00:06FORECAST20215813840.524.2432.3757.3739808720450.00521.185211.2912.4752TT8.536.535340.5312759484619.53763491260.703115963353249144141218WETL
2020-11-22 11:00:06FORECAST20215813841.1726.3133.7457.9528573928830.00321.653211.4813.1332TT9.1738.1735340.9094190470119.7566749459220.726958746784339144151222.5WETL
2020-11-22 07:00:07FORECAST20215813841.1926.3133.7557.8296571229330.00321.763211.4413.2032TT9.1940.1935340.8289867381519.7100234406240.727655640617449144151222.5WETL
2020-11-22 03:00:07FORECAST20215813841.4226.7934.10559.5879771360560.00341.863411.5113.3734TT9.4230.4235341.9745400302620.3775710724360.735605926101719144151222.5WETL
2020-11-21 23:00:06FORECAST20215813841.2927.534.39562.6030625375770.00211.712111.613.3121TT9.2929.2935343.9270124416521.5308842682470.731126816136389144151222.5WETL
2020-11-21 19:00:06FORECAST20215813841.3227.5134.41567.5955193897430.00211.452111.6313.0821TT9.3227.3235347.1272695050723.4642480765390.732163825123259144141218WETL
2020-11-21 15:00:06FORECAST20215813841.1227.5834.3567.2270203608860.00341.443411.5713.0134TT9.1235.1235346.8924394737923.3205450915420.725212658836299144141218WETL
2020-11-21 11:00:05FORECAST20215813837.4623.5530.50568.5492895827790.01971.389711.6713.0597TT5.4620.4635347.7340502930923.8369221113340.584970855326939134141216WETL
2020-11-21 07:00:07FORECAST20215813837.4723.5630.51567.9248390735580.01971.389711.5412.9297TT5.4718.4735347.3369461651623.592806172570.585379583306899134141216WETL
2020-11-21 03:00:07FORECAST20215813838.8422.8730.85571.3757508585640.00111.871111.5213.3911TT6.8420.8435349.5236130799624.947510326380.640323301854699134151220WETL
2020-11-20 23:00:05FORECAST20215813840.0522.8631.45572.3621771962940.00111.931111.6613.5911TT8.0533.0535350.1451468459825.3372651604910.686586415981459134151220WETL
2020-11-20 19:00:06FORECAST20215813840.0622.8631.4672.7524894936630.00111.931111.6613.5911TT8.0635.0635350.390647617425.4917919094630.686958007367679134151220WETL
2020-11-20 15:00:06FORECAST20215813840.7827.0133.89573.0705130507240.00051.840511.8313.6705TT8.7829.7835350.5904999520125.6178277022030.713195534991829144151222.5WETL
2020-11-20 11:00:06FORECAST20215813836.1828.5632.3769.5441557226680.00131.521311.7513.2713TT4.1837.1835348.3654115918524.2267784321350.532047053675059134151220WETL
2020-11-20 07:00:24FORECAST20215813829.7328.5629.14568.6464779387710.0011.52111.5613.081TT-2.2730.7335347.7957982434123.8749565913140.275624365871269124151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 03:00:07FORECAST20215813829.8529.6329.7466.8623713138950.0011.31111.3912.701TT-2.1523.8535346.6598464195323.1784993709210.279843516637219124141214WETL