Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 27, 2020

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DAY 58 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/28/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.75°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.25°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.00°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.514 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 16 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.72 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.29 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.01 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 59 in SWE DAY: 35 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.70 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 20.21 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 138 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-28 06:59:09	OBSERVATION	2021	58	138	35.74994	22.24994	28.99994	59.15834625	0	0.72	11.29	12.01	T	T	3.74994	15.74994	35	341.69510574531	20.214117377611	0.51408936627017	91	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-28 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	58	138	35.74994	22.24994	28.99994	59.15834625	0	0.72	11.29	12.01	T	T	3.74994	15.74994	35	341.69510574531	20.214117377611	0.51408936627017	91	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-27 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	58	138	44.87	31.89	38.38	60.623842235086	0.0127	0.7327	11.29	12.0227	T	T	12.87	24.87	35	342.64701976241	20.772578868399	0.83933606468589	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-27 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	44.77	24.7	34.735	60.171188458293	0.0133	0.7333	11.29	12.0233	T	T	12.77	24.77	35	342.35337627496	20.599809523173	0.83676283728538	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-27 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	39.34	25.27	32.305	60.291411635861	0.0161	0.7361	11.29	12.0261	T	T	7.34	19.34	35	342.43139983434	20.645672484456	0.65973866317152	91	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-26 22:59:11	FORECAST	2021	58	138	44.16	27.25	35.705	58.622781911243	0.0409	0.6609	11.29	11.9509	T	T	12.16	31.16	35	341.34634450316	20.010672310009	0.82049171040484	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-26 18:59:52	FORECAST	2021	58	138	44.09	28.49	36.29	58.598586684301	0.0328	0.6528	11.29	11.9428	T	T	12.09	31.09	35	341.33057728893	20.001489421268	0.81856157716911	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-26 14:59:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	43.25	27.84	35.545	58.678238681331	0.0387	0.6587	11.29	11.9487	T	T	11.25	30.25	35	341.38248015627	20.031722652235	0.79439946217949	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-26 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	43.32	28.13	35.725	58.593645904828	0.017	0.637	11.29	11.927	T	T	11.32	30.32	35	341.32735743026	19.9996143189	0.79648294034801	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-26 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	43.21	27.79	35.5	58.653464545682	0.0127	0.6427	11.29	11.9327	T	T	11.21	24.21	35	341.36633794882	20.02231839997	0.79320325102261	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	43.22	27.69	35.455	58.605899740593	0.0079	0.6279	11.29	11.9179	T	T	11.22	24.22	35	341.33534306351	20.004264893501	0.79350268865761	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-25 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	42.01	26.36	34.185	55.812768993004	0.016	0.196	11.29	11.486	T	T	10.01	31.01	35	339.50865964963	18.948918392149	0.75544645751325	91	4	4	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-25 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.67	25.91	33.79	55.742537718691	0.0183	0.2083	11.29	11.4983	T	T	9.67	34.67	35	339.46256176923	18.922504653504	0.74411168329622	91	4	4	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-25 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.87	26.38	34.125	55.751767606871	0.0197	0.2197	11.29	11.5097	T	T	9.87	34.87	35	339.46862048379	18.925975639037	0.750812159974	91	4	4	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-25 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	42.39	26.15	34.27	56.33413708501	0.001	0.191	11.29	11.481	T	T	10.39	36.39	35	339.85061435891	19.145191097719	0.76778814208578	91	4	4	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-25 06:59:57	FORECAST	2021	58	138	43.03	26.87	34.95	57.507755036142	0.0028	0.3528	11.29	11.6428	T	T	11.03	35.03	35	340.61871147917	19.58821742047	0.78776964048298	91	4	4	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	43.27	26.77	35.02	58.183883921874	0.003	0.473	11.29	11.763	T	T	11.27	27.27	35	341.06017877965	19.844205852489	0.7949960273032	91	4	4	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-24 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	42.18	26.42	34.3	58.067928517337	0.0032	0.7632	11.47	12.2332	T	T	10.18	34.18	35	340.9845214466	19.80026481688	0.76101091271271	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-24 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	58	138	42.56	28.05	35.305	57.956679891956	0.0042	0.7542	11.47	12.2242	T	T	10.56	34.56	35	340.91191419439	19.758122682318	0.77319533699569	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-24 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	58	138	42.31	28.47	35.39	58.371049025512	0.001	0.891	11.47	12.361	T	T	10.31	39.31	35	341.18225124823	19.915165914245	0.76521900866427	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	36.75	26.1	31.425	57.554267463807	0.0002	0.8302	11.47	12.3002	T	T	4.75	27.75	35	340.64910529814	19.605809717636	0.55574193410847	91	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	36.95	26.32	31.635	57.448846238894	0.0012	0.9612	11.49	12.4512	T	T	4.95	28.95	35	340.58021202553	19.565940232665	0.5640133203552	91	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	42.58	25.07	33.825	57.323720888878	0.0006	0.9906	11.49	12.4806	T	T	10.58	38.58	35	340.49841806792	19.51863628043	0.77382678196663	91	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-23 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.41	24.61	33.01	54.621328779601	0.0229	0.8829	11.16	12.0429	T	T	9.41	40.41	35	338.72551635286	18.50163779475	0.73526273062477	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.41	26.94	34.175	54.574747589321	0.0234	0.9434	11.05	11.9934	T	T	9.41	39.41	35	338.69484999264	18.484185948152	0.73526273062477	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 14:59:22	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.27	26.6	33.935	55.16250879627	0.0235	1.1535	11.11	12.2635	T	T	9.27	45.27	35	339.08153213815	18.704587999223	0.7304343598947	91	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	40.79	27.61	34.2	54.861878804274	0.0687	0.9687	11.27	12.2387	T	T	8.79	40.79	35	338.88382283376	18.591803217035	0.71355250320814	91	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 07:00:29	FORECAST	2021	58	138	40.8	27.62	34.21	55.670873103581	0.0687	1.0587	11.41	12.4687	T	T	8.8	32.8	35	339.41551460577	18.895558043004	0.71390926067715	91	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	40.43	27.26	33.845	56.304544587338	0.0705	1.2705	11.6	12.8705	T	T	8.43	40.43	35	339.83121736228	19.134041930144	0.70057099364643	91	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-22 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	40.12	26.31	33.215	58.056953632934	0.0046	1.4146	11.3	12.7146	T	T	8.12	39.12	35	340.97735951788	19.796106751409	0.68918356234108	91	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	40.14	26.31	33.225	57.495745191596	0.0046	1.2446	11.37	12.6146	T	T	8.14	38.14	35	340.61086299243	19.583675388102	0.68992388531177	91	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-22 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	40.5	24.24	32.37	57.373980872045	0.0052	1.1852	11.29	12.4752	T	T	8.5	36.5	35	340.53127594846	19.5376349126	0.70311596335324	91	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-22 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.17	26.31	33.74	57.952857392883	0.0032	1.6532	11.48	13.1332	T	T	9.17	38.17	35	340.90941904701	19.756674945922	0.72695874678433	91	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.19	26.31	33.75	57.829657122933	0.0032	1.7632	11.44	13.2032	T	T	9.19	40.19	35	340.82898673815	19.710023440624	0.72765564061744	91	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.42	26.79	34.105	59.587977136056	0.0034	1.8634	11.51	13.3734	T	T	9.42	30.42	35	341.97454003026	20.377571072436	0.73560592610171	91	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.29	27.5	34.395	62.603062537577	0.0021	1.7121	11.6	13.3121	T	T	9.29	29.29	35	343.92701244165	21.530884268247	0.73112681613638	91	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.32	27.51	34.415	67.595519389743	0.0021	1.4521	11.63	13.0821	T	T	9.32	27.32	35	347.12726950507	23.464248076539	0.73216382512325	91	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	41.12	27.58	34.35	67.227020360886	0.0034	1.4434	11.57	13.0134	T	T	9.12	35.12	35	346.89243947379	23.320545091542	0.72521265883629	91	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-21 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	58	138	37.46	23.55	30.505	68.549289582779	0.0197	1.3897	11.67	13.0597	T	T	5.46	20.46	35	347.73405029309	23.836922111334	0.58497085532693	91	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	37.47	23.56	30.515	67.924839073558	0.0197	1.3897	11.54	12.9297	T	T	5.47	18.47	35	347.33694616516	23.59280617257	0.58537958330689	91	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-21 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	38.84	22.87	30.855	71.375750858564	0.0011	1.8711	11.52	13.3911	T	T	6.84	20.84	35	349.52361307996	24.94751032638	0.64032330185469	91	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	58	138	40.05	22.86	31.455	72.362177196294	0.0011	1.9311	11.66	13.5911	T	T	8.05	33.05	35	350.14514684598	25.337265160491	0.68658641598145	91	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	40.06	22.86	31.46	72.752489493663	0.0011	1.9311	11.66	13.5911	T	T	8.06	35.06	35	350.3906476174	25.491791909463	0.68695800736767	91	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	40.78	27.01	33.895	73.070513050724	0.0005	1.8405	11.83	13.6705	T	T	8.78	29.78	35	350.59049995201	25.617827702203	0.71319553499182	91	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	58	138	36.18	28.56	32.37	69.544155722668	0.0013	1.5213	11.75	13.2713	T	T	4.18	37.18	35	348.36541159185	24.226778432135	0.53204705367505	91	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 07:00:24	FORECAST	2021	58	138	29.73	28.56	29.145	68.646477938771	0.001	1.521	11.56	13.081	T	T	-2.27	30.73	35	347.79579824341	23.874956591314	0.27562436587126	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	58	138	29.85	29.63	29.74	66.862371313895	0.001	1.311	11.39	12.701	T	T	-2.15	23.85	35	346.65984641953	23.178499370921	0.27984351663721	91	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L