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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 26, 2020

[ Wednesday, November 25, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, November 27, 2020 ]

DAY 57 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2020 03:00:07 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.560
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 23

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.60 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.75 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 36
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 137

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-24 03:00:07FORECAST20215713735.7226.431.0657.5806542222110.04331.603311.1512.7533TT3.7222.7236341.6419792914719.6719686773740.559578711728748734151220WETL
2020-11-23 23:00:05FORECAST20215713731.0927.0629.07554.9039007796010.04791.497910.7912.2879TT-0.9126.0936339.8937565537318.6614930854320.360343027506358724141214WETL
2020-11-23 19:00:06FORECAST20215713731.5226.7829.1554.8582489226540.061.4510.7912.24TT-0.4824.5236339.8638375202618.6443349984950.378123060266788724141214WETL
2020-11-23 14:59:21FORECAST20215713735.8627.4531.65555.4465021296030.04981.719810.7912.5098TT3.8630.8636340.2490977519918.8656223231010.565624432884368734151220WETL
2020-11-23 11:00:06FORECAST20215713731.5427.7829.6655.0893468042740.04511.645110.7912.4351TT-0.4626.5436340.015257365818.7312184317690.378956689828778724151217.5WETL
2020-11-23 07:00:29FORECAST20215713730.9827.829.3955.8997077702480.04931.689310.9812.6693TT-1.0218.9836340.5455199664119.0363950485890.355840982257498724151217.5WETL
2020-11-23 03:00:07FORECAST20215713735.5626.5731.06556.5140272540040.04881.988811.0813.0688TT3.5626.5636340.9467754243519.2682753584970.55265235254118734151220WETL
2020-11-22 23:00:06FORECAST20215713735.4426.2930.86558.2765496329340.04382.273810.7112.9838TT3.4426.4436342.0945343139719.9360891081040.547446906653348734151220WETL
2020-11-22 19:00:06FORECAST20215713735.4425.3730.40557.7165985249290.03292.102910.7812.8829TT3.4425.4436341.7304495338419.7235191594880.547446906653348734151220WETL
2020-11-22 15:00:06FORECAST20215713735.8425.7930.81557.5982782053780.04112.011110.7312.7411TT3.8422.8436341.6534504038119.6786504861860.564761663381468734151220WETL
2020-11-22 11:00:06FORECAST20215713735.7525.830.77558.172592288780.11122.481210.9213.4012TT3.7523.7536342.0269795390419.8965960324870.560875442679768734151220WETL
2020-11-22 07:00:07FORECAST20215713735.7525.830.77558.0499426308540.11122.591210.8813.4712TT3.7525.7536341.9472549657619.8500185335410.560875442679768734151220WETL
2020-11-22 03:00:07FORECAST20215713735.9627.2931.62559.8196831777020.05792.707910.9313.6379TT3.9615.9636343.0952165835520.5238471558130.569933513650668734151220WETL
2020-11-21 23:00:06FORECAST20215713730.7126.3228.51562.8325532042440.06312.633110.9513.5831TT-1.2914.7136345.037716413421.6796006740160.344876471927588724151217.5WETL
2020-11-21 19:00:06FORECAST20215713730.7226.3328.52567.8261033897430.03192.441910.9113.3519TT-1.2812.7236348.224671109423.6187225455250.34528031963688724151217.5WETL
2020-11-21 15:00:06FORECAST20215713735.6827.4431.5667.4568390275530.02812.328110.9513.2781TT3.6820.6836347.9903829026923.4743312426030.557848745152848734151220WETL
2020-11-21 11:00:05FORECAST20215713733.4223.628.5168.6159102406260.13642.246411.0613.3064TT1.4210.4236348.7250450636823.9280863907480.459308525072458724151217.5WETL
2020-11-21 07:00:07FORECAST20215713733.4223.6128.51567.9908675058120.13642.206410.9713.1764TT1.428.4236348.3291385865723.6832003100540.459308525072458724151217.5WETL
2020-11-21 03:00:07FORECAST20215713728.1123.0425.57571.5047641918970.27322.66321113.6632TT-3.899.1136350.546721776525.0657606788710.246933347902468714151215WETL
2020-11-20 23:00:05FORECAST20215713734.5525.5230.03572.5222958629610.33362.783611.0813.8636TT2.5519.5536351.1851884309625.468756138080.508644665017398734151220WETL
2020-11-20 19:00:06FORECAST20215713734.5725.5230.04572.9132094936630.33362.743611.1213.8636TT2.5721.5736351.4300350783525.6238917700330.509518909581958734151220WETL
2020-11-20 15:00:06FORECAST20215713729.3926.4627.92573.2343490507240.2982.64811.2913.938TT-2.6116.3936351.6309972939525.7514671928790.293266328663598724151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 11:00:06FORECAST20215713735.8727.131.48569.5753157226680.22152.241511.313.5415TT3.8727.8736349.3315177470724.3048506391310.566055700731238734151220WETL
2020-11-20 07:00:24FORECAST20215713735.8827.1231.568.6464779387710.22152.241511.1113.3515TT3.8827.8836348.7443907428723.94007412540.566486889970098734151220WETL
2020-11-20 03:00:07FORECAST20215713735.8925.830.84566.8623713138950.07231.982310.9912.9723TT3.8920.8936347.6127473447323.2422125864060.566918000097618734151220WETL
2020-11-19 23:00:06FORECAST20215713735.9224.4730.19554.3669950697540.07021.750210.3912.1402TT3.9221.9236339.5416629619418.4598599162280.568210850782758734151220WETL
2020-11-19 19:00:06FORECAST20215713735.9324.4930.2156.0025281801630.071.7510.612.35TT3.9314.9336340.6127228750919.0751736113350.568641639437028734151220WETL
2020-11-19 15:00:06FORECAST20215713736.0126.4531.2357.6857817941630.11422.094210.4412.5342TT4.0123.0136341.7103972065719.7118314100550.572084968114518734151220WETL
2020-11-19 10:59:34FORECAST20215713728.9723.2726.1256.9666831090380.01321.663210.2511.9132TT-3.0313.9736341.2420365633919.4394269603890.27762777085218724151217.5WETL
2020-11-19 07:00:07FORECAST20215713724.8823.2824.0855.0689356507880.01181.661810.3211.9818TT-7.129.8836340.0018871575618.7235420450260.149555551662728714151215WETL
2020-11-19 03:00:23FORECAST20215713723.2723.0423.15556.4840073645460.00211.632110.7512.3821TT-8.734.2736340.9271818605619.2569334509860.11218378303778714151215WETL