Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 26, 2020

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DAY 57 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/27/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.14°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.24°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.69°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.322 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 7 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.13 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.13 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.15 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.28 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 61 in SWE DAY: 36 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.58 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 20.81 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 137 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 14.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-27 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	57	137	30.14006	25.23992	27.68999	60.567464166667	0.13	1.13	11.15	12.28	T	T	-1.85994	7.14006	36	343.57872421902	20.809692067564	0.32216363549389	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-27 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	57	137	30.14006	25.23992	27.68999	60.567464166667	0.13	1.13	11.15	12.28	T	T	-1.85994	7.14006	36	343.57872421902	20.809692067564	0.32216363549389	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	57	137	36.75	27.93	32.34	58.944693097854	0.0334	1.0334	11.15	12.1834	T	T	4.75	13.75	36	342.52828961567	20.190224908728	0.60364304611083	87	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-26 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	31.1	26.62	28.86	59.010931892919	0.0371	1.0371	11.15	12.1871	T	T	-0.9	8.1	36	342.57125140803	20.215448785311	0.36075327683687	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	31.13	26.07	28.6	58.974432040801	0.0338	1.0338	11.15	12.1838	T	T	-0.87	8.13	36	342.54757887834	20.201548911301	0.36198498446932	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-25 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	57	137	32.11	26.8	29.455	56.111236268915	0.0345	0.5945	11.15	11.7445	T	T	0.11	16.11	36	340.68375485674	19.116186661747	0.40293772268846	87	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-25 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	57	137	36.46	26.92	31.69	56.043040385357	0.0418	0.6018	11.15	11.7518	T	T	4.46	20.46	36	340.63919663139	19.090456253649	0.59134429099158	87	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	57	137	36.45	26.66	31.555	56.009271209355	0.0478	0.6078	11.15	11.7578	T	T	4.45	20.45	36	340.61712947223	19.077717183162	0.59091851221503	87	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	36.74	25.59	31.165	56.607222519178	0.0364	0.5964	11.15	11.7464	T	T	4.74	20.74	36	341.00759315851	19.303492706653	0.6032205873484	87	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 06:59:57	FORECAST	2021	57	137	36.71	25.55	31.13	57.799239092745	0.0365	0.7565	11.15	11.9065	T	T	4.71	18.71	36	341.78421568335	19.754867600408	0.6019524860364	87	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	31.07	26.58	28.825	58.490175515713	0.0295	0.8795	11.15	12.0295	T	T	-0.93	11.07	36	342.23329920079	20.017285737576	0.35952301124307	87	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-24 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	32.07	27.19	29.63	58.320293974082	0.0236	1.3536	11.15	12.5036	T	T	0.07	19.07	36	342.12295544056	19.952711336575	0.40124171589589	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-24 19:00:04	FORECAST	2021	57	137	31.67	26.95	29.31	58.249146558623	0.0338	1.3438	11.15	12.4938	T	T	-0.33	18.67	36	342.0767286596	19.925677501987	0.38438884773135	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-24 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.78	27.64	31.71	58.639340258226	0.0388	1.4788	11.15	12.6288	T	T	3.78	23.78	36	342.33014745506	20.074013997266	0.56217152071651	87	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	31	26.48	28.74	57.68426479714	0.0374	1.4174	11.15	12.5674	T	T	-1	18	36	341.70941006195	19.711256093688	0.35665806441038	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	31.08	26.66	28.87	57.580866238894	0.0405	1.5705	11.15	12.7205	T	T	-0.92	19.08	36	341.64211729211	19.67204905737	0.35993293883213	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.72	26.4	31.06	57.580654222211	0.0433	1.6033	11.15	12.7533	T	T	3.72	22.72	36	341.64197929147	19.671968677374	0.55957871172874	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-23 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	57	137	31.09	27.06	29.075	54.903900779601	0.0479	1.4979	10.79	12.2879	T	T	-0.91	26.09	36	339.89375655373	18.661493085432	0.36034302750635	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-23 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	31.52	26.78	29.15	54.858248922654	0.06	1.45	10.79	12.24	T	T	-0.48	24.52	36	339.86383752026	18.644334998495	0.37812306026678	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-23 14:59:21	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.86	27.45	31.655	55.446502129603	0.0498	1.7198	10.79	12.5098	T	T	3.86	30.86	36	340.24909775199	18.865622323101	0.56562443288436	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	31.54	27.78	29.66	55.089346804274	0.0451	1.6451	10.79	12.4351	T	T	-0.46	26.54	36	340.0152573658	18.731218431769	0.37895668982877	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 07:00:29	FORECAST	2021	57	137	30.98	27.8	29.39	55.899707770248	0.0493	1.6893	10.98	12.6693	T	T	-1.02	18.98	36	340.54551996641	19.036395048589	0.35584098225749	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.56	26.57	31.065	56.514027254004	0.0488	1.9888	11.08	13.0688	T	T	3.56	26.56	36	340.94677542435	19.268275358497	0.5526523525411	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-22 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.44	26.29	30.865	58.276549632934	0.0438	2.2738	10.71	12.9838	T	T	3.44	26.44	36	342.09453431397	19.936089108104	0.54744690665334	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.44	25.37	30.405	57.716598524929	0.0329	2.1029	10.78	12.8829	T	T	3.44	25.44	36	341.73044953384	19.723519159488	0.54744690665334	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-22 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.84	25.79	30.815	57.598278205378	0.0411	2.0111	10.73	12.7411	T	T	3.84	22.84	36	341.65345040381	19.678650486186	0.56476166338146	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-22 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.75	25.8	30.775	58.17259228878	0.1112	2.4812	10.92	13.4012	T	T	3.75	23.75	36	342.02697953904	19.896596032487	0.56087544267976	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.75	25.8	30.775	58.049942630854	0.1112	2.5912	10.88	13.4712	T	T	3.75	25.75	36	341.94725496576	19.850018533541	0.56087544267976	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.96	27.29	31.625	59.819683177702	0.0579	2.7079	10.93	13.6379	T	T	3.96	15.96	36	343.09521658355	20.523847155813	0.56993351365066	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-21 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	30.71	26.32	28.515	62.832553204244	0.0631	2.6331	10.95	13.5831	T	T	-1.29	14.71	36	345.0377164134	21.679600674016	0.34487647192758	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	30.72	26.33	28.525	67.826103389743	0.0319	2.4419	10.91	13.3519	T	T	-1.28	12.72	36	348.2246711094	23.618722545525	0.3452803196368	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.68	27.44	31.56	67.456839027553	0.0281	2.3281	10.95	13.2781	T	T	3.68	20.68	36	347.99038290269	23.474331242603	0.55784874515284	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-21 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	57	137	33.42	23.6	28.51	68.615910240626	0.1364	2.2464	11.06	13.3064	T	T	1.42	10.42	36	348.72504506368	23.928086390748	0.45930852507245	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	33.42	23.61	28.515	67.990867505812	0.1364	2.2064	10.97	13.1764	T	T	1.42	8.42	36	348.32913858657	23.683200310054	0.45930852507245	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	28.11	23.04	25.575	71.504764191897	0.2732	2.6632	11	13.6632	T	T	-3.89	9.11	36	350.5467217765	25.065760678871	0.24693334790246	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-20 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	57	137	34.55	25.52	30.035	72.522295862961	0.3336	2.7836	11.08	13.8636	T	T	2.55	19.55	36	351.18518843096	25.46875613808	0.50864466501739	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	34.57	25.52	30.045	72.913209493663	0.3336	2.7436	11.12	13.8636	T	T	2.57	21.57	36	351.43003507835	25.623891770033	0.50951890958195	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	29.39	26.46	27.925	73.234349050724	0.298	2.648	11.29	13.938	T	T	-2.61	16.39	36	351.63099729395	25.751467192879	0.29326632866359	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.87	27.1	31.485	69.575315722668	0.2215	2.2415	11.3	13.5415	T	T	3.87	27.87	36	349.33151774707	24.304850639131	0.56605570073123	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 07:00:24	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.88	27.12	31.5	68.646477938771	0.2215	2.2415	11.11	13.3515	T	T	3.88	27.88	36	348.74439074287	23.9400741254	0.56648688997009	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.89	25.8	30.845	66.862371313895	0.0723	1.9823	10.99	12.9723	T	T	3.89	20.89	36	347.61274734473	23.242212586406	0.56691800009761	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.92	24.47	30.195	54.366995069754	0.0702	1.7502	10.39	12.1402	T	T	3.92	21.92	36	339.54166296194	18.459859916228	0.56821085078275	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	35.93	24.49	30.21	56.002528180163	0.07	1.75	10.6	12.35	T	T	3.93	14.93	36	340.61272287509	19.075173611335	0.56864163943702	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	57	137	36.01	26.45	31.23	57.685781794163	0.1142	2.0942	10.44	12.5342	T	T	4.01	23.01	36	341.71039720657	19.711831410055	0.57208496811451	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 10:59:34	FORECAST	2021	57	137	28.97	23.27	26.12	56.966683109038	0.0132	1.6632	10.25	11.9132	T	T	-3.03	13.97	36	341.24203656339	19.439426960389	0.2776277708521	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	57	137	24.88	23.28	24.08	55.068935650788	0.0118	1.6618	10.32	11.9818	T	T	-7.12	9.88	36	340.00188715756	18.723542045026	0.14955555166272	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-19 03:00:23	FORECAST	2021	57	137	23.27	23.04	23.155	56.484007364546	0.0021	1.6321	10.75	12.3821	T	T	-8.73	4.27	36	340.92718186056	19.256933450986	0.1121837830377	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L