Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 25, 2020

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DAY 56 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/26/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.86°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.37°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.12°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.184 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 1 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.59 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.46 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.74 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.20 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 59 in SWE DAY: 37 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.47 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 20.23 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 136 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-26 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	56	136	27.86	22.37	25.115	58.90244125	0.58999999999997	1.46	10.74	12.2	T	T	-4.14	0.86	37	343.46955673258	20.231195386604	0.18362742742096	91	1	4	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-26 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	56	136	27.86	22.37	25.115	58.90244125	0.58999999999997	1.46	10.74	12.2	T	T	-4.14	0.86	37	343.46955673258	20.231195386604	0.18362742742096	91	1	4	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	56	136	34.85	25.51	30.18	56.56736942019	0.1538	1.0238	10.74	11.7638	T	T	2.85	7.85	37	341.95602479187	19.343552779861	0.47083737617334	91	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-25 06:59:57	FORECAST	2021	56	136	32.89	24.03	28.46	57.762928786867	0.3119	1.1819	10.74	11.9219	T	T	0.89	5.89	37	342.73207626062	19.797208514017	0.38001592716855	91	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.22	22.94	27.08	58.423264001416	0.4389	1.3089	10.74	12.0489	T	T	-0.78	4.22	37	343.15969831431	20.048509649263	0.30735882553289	91	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-24 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.19	24.12	27.155	58.25254916217	0.739	1.789	10.74	12.529	T	T	-1.81	11.19	37	343.04921497027	19.983491260099	0.26584637307219	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-24 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	56	136	29.53	24.56	27.045	58.14861915073	0.7243	1.7743	10.74	12.5143	T	T	-2.47	10.53	37	342.98193001134	19.943925623812	0.2408247990904	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-24 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.22	26.2	28.71	58.582648319815	0.8516	1.9016	10.74	12.6416	T	T	-0.78	12.22	37	343.2628055299	20.109244217631	0.30735882553289	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.35	26.31	28.33	57.68426479714	0.7851	1.8351	10.74	12.5751	T	T	-1.65	11.35	37	342.68108694838	19.767306560502	0.27210446407412	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.66	27.04	28.85	57.580866238894	0.9161	1.9861	10.74	12.7261	T	T	-1.34	11.66	37	342.61404940583	19.728013750403	0.28443394640753	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.93	27.07	29	57.636304888878	0.9462	2.0162	10.74	12.7562	T	T	-1.07	10.93	37	342.64999475445	19.74907956784	0.2953851618267	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	56	136	33.42	25.59	29.505	54.903900779601	0.81	1.55	10.74	12.29	T	T	1.42	19.42	37	340.87231983106	18.715220026517	0.40414602013088	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.84	26.8	28.82	54.858248922654	0.8645	1.4945	10.74	12.2345	T	T	-1.16	16.84	37	340.84251427418	18.698023491476	0.29171326780238	91	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-23 14:59:21	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.6	27.7	29.65	55.507455462936	1.0803	1.7703	10.74	12.5103	T	T	-0.4	18.6	37	341.26604881568	18.942810005649	0.32336271062186	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	33.72	25.84	29.78	55.07341739039	0.8494	1.6994	10.74	12.4394	T	T	1.72	18.72	37	340.98296498049	18.779097153383	0.41797452472694	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 07:00:29	FORECAST	2021	56	136	32.86	25.96	29.41	55.881208467683	0.9431	1.9331	10.74	12.6731	T	T	0.86	11.86	37	341.5095641932	19.083967150388	0.3786629722825	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	33.09	25.89	29.49	56.545283918253	1.1522	2.3322	10.74	13.0722	T	T	1.09	15.09	37	341.9416666552	19.335188624499	0.3890724270529	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	33.02	26.06	29.54	58.309859392647	1.3671	2.6571	10.33	12.9871	T	T	1.02	15.02	37	343.08631038561	20.005314518127	0.38589551245845	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.75	26.44	28.595	57.767493191596	1.2111	2.5711	10.33	12.9011	T	T	-1.25	13.75	37	342.73503455525	19.798943775192	0.28806276693812	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.96	26.2	28.58	57.662074205378	1.1418	2.4218	10.33	12.7518	T	T	-1.04	10.96	37	342.66670135785	19.758872761408	0.29661382995389	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	32.25	26.01	29.13	58.085489645264	1.5403	3.0103	10.33	13.3403	T	T	0.25	12.25	37	342.94105089066	19.919898860446	0.3514961381675	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	32.26	26.02	29.14	57.961159256414	1.6458	3.0658	10.34	13.4058	T	T	0.26	14.26	37	342.86052234689	19.872593338485	0.35193587369225	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	28.41	25.69	27.05	59.835360309532	1.8006	3.2606	10.37	13.6306	T	T	-3.59	4.41	37	344.07174501879	20.587656835529	0.20145966297412	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-21 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	28.21	26.14	27.175	62.727120738817	1.6514	3.2014	10.37	13.5714	T	T	-3.79	8.21	37	345.92930140442	21.69914905629	0.19485866776418	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	27.75	26.12	26.935	67.717546466752	1.4216	3.0316	10.34	13.3716	T	T	-4.25	5.75	37	349.10304451648	23.640401638729	0.18018243058812	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	29.69	26.21	27.95	67.41779862379	1.4096	2.9996	10.3	13.2996	T	T	-2.31	8.69	37	348.91354845743	23.522983347015	0.24677072338965	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-21 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	56	136	29.42	25.5	27.46	67.902173848581	1.2344	2.9144	10.31	13.2244	T	T	-2.58	1.42	37	349.21969137882	23.712776195353	0.23678256073058	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	29.43	25.53	27.48	67.265514230114	1.2344	2.7744	10.32	13.0944	T	T	-2.57	-0.57	37	348.81722128179	23.463369761839	0.23714849086162	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-21 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.31	23.94	27.625	69.82156076597	1.5978	3.1078	10.33	13.4378	T	T	-0.69	5.31	37	350.42911773649	24.467507938204	0.31111773103624	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.89	24.01	27.45	70.43538398654	1.6048	3.1948	10.39	13.5848	T	T	-1.11	8.89	37	350.81465168312	24.709764699405	0.29375058644907	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.91	24.02	27.465	70.77475515445	1.6048	3.2048	10.38	13.5848	T	T	-1.09	10.91	37	351.02754816506	24.843888773849	0.29456735152625	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.76	24.07	27.915	71.28715158621	1.5439	3.2239	10.47	13.6939	T	T	-0.24	10.76	37	351.34864044212	25.046643790806	0.33020244819068	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.76	23.86	27.81	68.397245599869	1.303	2.913	10.46	13.373	T	T	-0.24	15.76	37	349.53220592048	23.907040133407	0.33020244819068	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 07:00:24	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.78	23.87	27.825	67.433015182567	1.303	2.833	10.35	13.183	T	T	-0.22	15.78	37	348.92317161258	23.5289415289	0.33106147652333	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.7	24.12	27.91	66.476279986689	1.2435	2.5335	10.42	12.9535	T	T	-0.3	8.7	37	348.31739542762	23.154844702681	0.32763073954934	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	29.52	26.28	27.9	53.961989593475	0.8972	2.4572	9.66	12.1172	T	T	-2.48	9.52	37	340.25665664405	18.360926164937	0.24045578061732	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	29.55	26.31	27.93	55.57854962777	0.8972	2.5572	9.77	12.3272	T	T	-2.45	2.55	37	341.31238737979	18.969647460561	0.2415637580346	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-19 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	32.08	24.45	28.265	56.958785976325	1.1666	2.6566	9.81	12.4666	T	T	0.079999999999998	11.08	37	342.21035734418	19.491886502848	0.34405143908338	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-19 10:59:34	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.16	23.23	26.695	56.86509793981	0.8185	2.1685	9.78	11.9485	T	T	-1.84	9.16	37	342.14950425006	19.456365069237	0.26468114357147	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.17	23.24	26.705	55.002064836396	0.8185	2.1685	9.85	12.0185	T	T	-1.83	9.17	37	340.93639827685	18.752205883111	0.26506926499311	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-19 03:00:23	FORECAST	2021	56	136	29.77	23.15	26.46	56.465622642722	0.8076	2.2776	10.15	12.4276	T	T	-2.23	4.77	37	341.88987089822	19.305024435508	0.24977285337004	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.5	23.22	27.36	60.246696064864	0.5113	2.1813	9.96	12.1413	T	T	-0.5	9.5	37	344.33680446653	20.745154802641	0.31911778342437	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-18 19:00:00	FORECAST	2021	56	136	31.52	23.22	27.37	60.131521275116	0.4954	2.1654	9.87	12.0354	T	T	-0.48	8.52	37	344.26261523241	20.701034772075	0.31996489819248	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-18 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	56	136	27.2	25.82	26.51	57.412896426723	0.3328	2.0528	9.85	11.9028	T	T	-4.8	8.2	37	342.50511012212	19.664210413064	0.16357036741762	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-18 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	56	136	26.27	23.34	24.805	67.315998114172	0.3742	3.5442	10.3	13.8442	T	T	-5.73	3.27	37	348.84915888603	23.483129321703	0.13781377049705	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-18 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	56	136	26.28	24.63	25.455	66.527854426179	0.3145	3.4845	10.47	13.9545	T	T	-5.72	8.28	37	348.35008837686	23.174983968882	0.13807515975226	91	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-18 03:00:21	FORECAST	2021	56	136	30.57	29.51	30.04	70.076175207009	0.6326	4.3626	10.52	14.8826	T	T	-1.43	11.57	37	350.5891105329	24.567943935373	0.28082708675141	91	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L