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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 25, 2020

[ Tuesday, November 24, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 26, 2020 ]

DAY 56 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2020 03:00:07 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.295
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 11

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.95 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.74 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 37
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 136

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-24 03:00:07FORECAST20215613630.9327.072957.6363048888780.94622.016210.7412.7562TT-1.0710.9337342.6499947544519.749079567840.29538516182679124151217.5WETL
2020-11-23 23:00:04FORECAST20215613633.4225.5929.50554.9039007796010.811.5510.7412.29TT1.4219.4237340.8723198310618.7152200265170.404146020130889124151217.5WETL
2020-11-23 19:00:06FORECAST20215613630.8426.828.8254.8582489226540.86451.494510.7412.2345TT-1.1616.8437340.8425142741818.6980234914760.291713267802389124141214WETL
2020-11-23 14:59:21FORECAST20215613631.627.729.6555.5074554629361.08031.770310.7412.5103TT-0.418.637341.2660488156818.9428100056490.323362710621869124151217.5WETL
2020-11-23 11:00:06FORECAST20215613633.7225.8429.7855.073417390390.84941.699410.7412.4394TT1.7218.7237340.9829649804918.7790971533830.417974524726949124151217.5WETL
2020-11-23 07:00:29FORECAST20215613632.8625.9629.4155.8812084676830.94311.933110.7412.6731TT0.8611.8637341.509564193219.0839671503880.37866297228259124151217.5WETL
2020-11-23 03:00:07FORECAST20215613633.0925.8929.4956.5452839182531.15222.332210.7413.0722TT1.0915.0937341.941666655219.3351886244990.38907242705299124151217.5WETL
2020-11-22 23:00:06FORECAST20215613633.0226.0629.5458.3098593926471.36712.657110.3312.9871TT1.0215.0237343.0863103856120.0053145181270.385895512458459124151217.5WETL
2020-11-22 19:00:06FORECAST20215613630.7526.4428.59557.7674931915961.21112.571110.3312.9011TT-1.2513.7537342.7350345552519.7989437751920.288062766938129124151217.5WETL
2020-11-22 15:00:05FORECAST20215613630.9626.228.5857.6620742053781.14182.421810.3312.7518TT-1.0410.9637342.6667013578519.7588727614080.296613829953899124151217.5WETL
2020-11-22 11:00:06FORECAST20215613632.2526.0129.1358.0854896452641.54033.010310.3313.3403TT0.2512.2537342.9410508906619.9198988604460.35149613816759124151217.5WETL
2020-11-22 07:00:07FORECAST20215613632.2626.0229.1457.9611592564141.64583.065810.3413.4058TT0.2614.2637342.8605223468919.8725933384850.351935873692259124151217.5WETL
2020-11-22 03:00:07FORECAST20215613628.4125.6927.0559.8353603095321.80063.260610.3713.6306TT-3.594.4137344.0717450187920.5876568355290.201459662974129114151215WETL
2020-11-21 23:00:06FORECAST20215613628.2126.1427.17562.7271207388171.65143.201410.3713.5714TT-3.798.2137345.9293014044221.699149056290.194858667764189114151215WETL
2020-11-21 19:00:06FORECAST20215613627.7526.1226.93567.7175464667521.42163.031610.3413.3716TT-4.255.7537349.1030445164823.6404016387290.180182430588129114151215WETL
2020-11-21 15:00:06FORECAST20215613629.6926.2127.9567.417798623791.40962.999610.313.2996TT-2.318.6937348.9135484574323.5229833470150.246770723389659114151215WETL
2020-11-21 11:00:04FORECAST20215613629.4225.527.4667.9021738485811.23442.914410.3113.2244TT-2.581.4237349.2196913788223.7127761953530.236782560730589114151215WETL
2020-11-21 07:00:07FORECAST20215613629.4325.5327.4867.2655142301141.23442.774410.3213.0944TT-2.57-0.5737348.8172212817923.4633697618390.237148490861629114151215WETL
2020-11-21 03:00:07FORECAST20215613631.3123.9427.62569.821560765971.59783.107810.3313.4378TT-0.695.3137350.4291177364924.4675079382040.311117731036249124151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 23:00:05FORECAST20215613630.8924.0127.4570.435383986541.60483.194810.3913.5848TT-1.118.8937350.8146516831224.7097646994050.293750586449079124151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 19:00:06FORECAST20215613630.9124.0227.46570.774755154451.60483.204810.3813.5848TT-1.0910.9137351.0275481650624.8438887738490.294567351526259124151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 15:00:06FORECAST20215613631.7624.0727.91571.287151586211.54393.223910.4713.6939TT-0.2410.7637351.3486404421225.0466437908060.330202448190689124151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 11:00:06FORECAST20215613631.7623.8627.8168.3972455998691.3032.91310.4613.373TT-0.2415.7637349.5322059204823.9070401334070.330202448190689124151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 07:00:24FORECAST20215613631.7823.8727.82567.4330151825671.3032.83310.3513.183TT-0.2215.7837348.9231716125823.52894152890.331061476523339124151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 03:00:07FORECAST20215613631.724.1227.9166.4762799866891.24352.533510.4212.9535TT-0.38.737348.3173954276223.1548447026810.327630739549349124151217.5WETL
2020-11-19 23:00:06FORECAST20215613629.5226.2827.953.9619895934750.89722.45729.6612.1172TT-2.489.5237340.2566566440518.3609261649370.240455780617329114151215WETL
2020-11-19 19:00:06FORECAST20215613629.5526.3127.9355.578549627770.89722.55729.7712.3272TT-2.452.5537341.3123873797918.9696474605610.24156375803469114151215WETL
2020-11-19 15:00:06FORECAST20215613632.0824.4528.26556.9587859763251.16662.65669.8112.4666TT0.07999999999999811.0837342.2103573441819.4918865028480.344051439083389124151217.5WETL
2020-11-19 10:59:34FORECAST20215613630.1623.2326.69556.865097939810.81852.16859.7811.9485TT-1.849.1637342.1495042500619.4563650692370.264681143571479124151217.5WETL
2020-11-19 07:00:07FORECAST20215613630.1723.2426.70555.0020648363960.81852.16859.8512.0185TT-1.839.1737340.9363982768518.7522058831110.265069264993119124151217.5WETL
2020-11-19 03:00:23FORECAST20215613629.7723.1526.4656.4656226427220.80762.277610.1512.4276TT-2.234.7737341.8898708982219.3050244355080.249772853370049124151217.5WETL
2020-11-18 23:00:06FORECAST20215613631.523.2227.3660.2466960648640.51132.18139.9612.1413TT-0.59.537344.3368044665320.7451548026410.319117783424379124151217.5WETL
2020-11-18 19:00:00FORECAST20215613631.5223.2227.3760.1315212751160.49542.16549.8712.0354TT-0.488.5237344.2626152324120.7010347720750.319964898192489124151217.5WETL
2020-11-18 15:00:05FORECAST20215613627.225.8226.5157.4128964267230.33282.05289.8511.9028TT-4.88.237342.5051101221219.6642104130640.163570367417629114151215WETL
2020-11-18 11:00:06FORECAST20215613626.2723.3424.80567.3159981141720.37423.544210.313.8442TT-5.733.2737348.8491588860323.4831293217030.137813770497059114151215WETL
2020-11-18 07:00:07FORECAST20215613626.2824.6325.45566.5278544261790.31453.484510.4713.9545TT-5.728.2837348.3500883768623.1749839688820.138075159752269114151215WETL
2020-11-18 03:00:21FORECAST20215613630.5729.5130.0470.0761752070090.63264.362610.5214.8826TT-1.4311.5737350.589110532924.5679439353730.280827086751419124151217.5WETL