Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 24, 2020

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DAY 55 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/25/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.05°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.25°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.15°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.334 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -3 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.41 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.46 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.47 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.93 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 56 in SWE DAY: 38 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.86 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 19.36 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 135 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 14.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-25 06:59:57	OBSERVATION	2021	55	135	32.05004	22.24994	27.14999	56.460003478261	0.41000000000003	1.46	10.47	11.93	T	T	0.050040000000003	-2.94996	38	342.85722321737	19.3577200154	0.33447181169825	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-25 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	55	135	32.05004	22.24994	27.14999	56.460003478261	0.41000000000003	1.46	10.47	11.93	T	T	0.050040000000003	-2.94996	38	342.85722321737	19.3577200154	0.33447181169825	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-24 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	55	135	40.2	26.59	33.395	55.757307520811	0.5876	1.6376	10.47	12.1076	T	T	8.2	5.2	38	342.40160421137	19.091391541632	0.65261396101343	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.7	28.33	34.015	55.37024641163	0.6095	1.6595	10.47	12.1295	T	T	7.7	4.7	38	342.15029122341	18.944945934851	0.63385487688811	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.98	28.78	33.88	55.335665300628	0.6144	1.6644	10.47	12.1344	T	T	6.98	3.98	38	342.12782619978	18.931870880622	0.60628122102885	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-23 23:00:01	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.23	27.21	33.22	52.833354239136	0.6395	1.3295	10.47	11.7995	T	T	7.23	10.23	38	340.4969943011	17.989598317271	0.61592385424759	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-23 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.12	29.21	34.165	52.663234757573	0.5338	1.2238	10.47	11.6938	T	T	7.12	10.12	38	340.385745532	17.925814425083	0.61168953975444	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-23 14:59:20	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.51	26.83	33.17	52.818468955056	0.59	1.28	10.47	11.75	T	T	7.51	10.51	38	340.48726206429	17.984015880935	0.62663880337026	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.32	27.75	33.035	52.80643553535	0.7492	1.4392	10.47	11.9092	T	T	6.32	9.32	38	340.47939415305	17.979503178458	0.58052457688848	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-23 07:00:29	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.49	27.67	33.08	53.324540481011	0.6996	1.5796	10.47	12.0496	T	T	6.49	3.49	38	340.81793340571	18.173959686547	0.58719668738247	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.05	27.76	32.905	53.332982182202	0.7861	1.7661	10.47	12.2361	T	T	6.05	6.05	38	340.82344567998	18.177130755727	0.56988070902816	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-22 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.33	27.99	33.16	54.532223377756	0.8562	1.4662	10.47	11.9362	T	T	6.33	6.33	38	341.60532809775	18.628498058858	0.58091771530636	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.19	29.62	33.905	54.313226008208	0.8639	1.5439	10.47	12.0139	T	T	6.19	7.19	38	341.46272367754	18.545942084476	0.57540660160197	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-22 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.3	29.75	34.025	54.40834033123	0.8335	1.4635	10.47	11.9335	T	T	6.3	4.3	38	341.5246689737	18.581790421032	0.57973805928162	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-22 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	33.4	28.27	30.835	54.311973133265	0.8263	1.6463	10.47	12.1163	T	T	1.4	4.4	38	341.46190761529	18.545469952435	0.38522961131319	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.29	28.48	33.385	53.940576161501	0.8337	1.6137	10.47	12.0837	T	T	6.29	6.29	38	341.21988303587	18.405597088715	0.5793446808559	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.32	28.43	33.375	54.358284297567	0.8516	1.6816	10.47	12.1516	T	T	6.32	0.32	38	341.49207074565	18.562923066957	0.58052457688848	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-21 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.3	28.14	33.72	57.463358477388	0.9194	1.7594	10.48	12.2394	T	T	7.3	4.3	38	343.50637772434	19.739030122442	0.61861126908064	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	37.23	27.3	32.265	60.031601833589	0.9922	1.7922	10.48	12.2722	T	T	5.23	2.23	38	345.16047236422	20.720536045663	0.53727417687524	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.24	27.71	33.475	59.754935494996	0.886	1.726	10.48	12.206	T	T	7.24	3.24	38	344.98280166394	20.614425060312	0.61630811533951	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-21 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	55	135	34.3	28.47	31.385	60.807725545104	0.8842	1.8342	10.48	12.3142	T	T	2.3	-3.7	38	345.65822072006	21.018690217955	0.42026194071838	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	34.26	28.49	31.375	60.074678307595	0.8354	1.6954	10.48	12.1754	T	T	2.26	-5.74	38	345.18812415579	20.737065514261	0.41868922704122	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	36.87	26.56	31.715	60.102181601414	0.7867	1.6767	10.48	12.1567	T	T	4.87	-2.13	38	345.20577757795	20.747620333847	0.52286626893869	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	55	135	34.76	26.91	30.835	60.567737631498	0.8536	1.8036	10.5	12.3036	T	T	2.76	1.76	38	345.50441500223	20.926420758379	0.43843352111235	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	55	135	35.6	26.94	31.27	60.70113804963	0.8094	1.7994	10.5	12.2994	T	T	3.6	3.6	38	345.58992149353	20.97770153314	0.47192643350882	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	37.02	26.56	31.79	61.592928486908	0.8132	1.9732	10.5	12.4732	T	T	5.02	3.02	38	346.16079429055	21.321057047709	0.52887428582823	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.83	25.87	32.85	59.92517446849	0.7224	1.9024	10.49	12.3924	T	T	7.83	7.83	38	345.09214118777	20.679706768382	0.63876524264089	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 07:00:24	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.84	25.9	32.87	58.763803519223	0.7224	1.7124	10.49	12.2024	T	T	7.84	7.84	38	344.34528675751	20.235038773789	0.63914203022653	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.64	28.23	33.935	58.276050209999	0.6692	1.5192	10.51	12.0292	T	T	7.64	0.64	38	344.03096482988	20.04876578022	0.63158108576921	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	37.32	27.16	32.24	47.843971386971	0.7768	1.7868	9.75	11.5368	T	T	5.32	4.32	38	337.21415986161	16.1336646157	0.54086926836422	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	37.34	27.19	32.265	49.29242318506	0.7768	1.9868	9.76	11.7468	T	T	5.34	-2.66	38	338.17147858133	16.669291631348	0.54166773438996	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.01	27.73	32.87	48.551931301566	0.8057	1.8557	9.76	11.6157	T	T	6.01	3.01	38	337.68250865655	16.395137962034	0.56829931610086	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 10:59:34	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.87	26.24	32.555	50.414408948317	0.8323	1.6223	9.83	11.4523	T	T	6.87	2.87	38	338.91061060216	17.085978119821	0.60201734426685	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.88	26.26	32.57	48.854560386223	0.8323	1.5723	9.95	11.5223	T	T	6.88	2.88	38	337.88245522775	16.507098812369	0.60240548155631	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-19 03:00:23	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.24	27.81	33.025	50.868889352952	0.8185	1.7485	10.19	11.9385	T	T	6.24	-0.76	38	339.20941033505	17.255205961814	0.57737660779113	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.46	25.96	32.21	56.175519726907	0.8355	2.0055	9.94	11.9455	T	T	6.46	2.46	38	342.67286558224	19.249826320391	0.58602102663609	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-18 19:00:00	FORECAST	2021	55	135	38.47	25.98	32.225	55.995148257035	0.8355	2.0055	9.85	11.8555	T	T	6.47	1.47	38	342.55590813144	19.181468862143	0.58641299975451	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-18 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.08	26.4	32.74	54.526316418989	0.6587	2.0587	9.83	11.8887	T	T	7.08	5.08	38	341.60148270687	18.626270535271	0.61014646320026	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-18 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.06	26.04	32.55	63.767709922177	1.5165	3.8365	9.95	13.7865	T	T	7.06	1.06	38	347.54755405982	22.162311611449	0.60937427194508	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-18 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	39.07	26.05	32.56	63.445991469085	1.5165	3.8365	10.12	13.9565	T	T	7.07	6.07	38	347.34289122542	22.037514113535	0.6097604216877	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-18 03:00:21	FORECAST	2021	55	135	37.09	26.47	31.78	65.683068585917	1.5551	4.3351	10.23	14.5651	T	T	5.09	5.09	38	348.76256355097	22.907795381918	0.53167586328177	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-17 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	31.81	24.09	27.95	74.559796707537	2.0906	5.5606	10.26	15.8206	T	T	-0.19	-13.19	38	354.31698501702	26.417802372897	0.32572457158154	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 19:00:00	FORECAST	2021	55	135	31.83	24.11	27.97	73.707012194717	1.9917	5.4617	10.28	15.7417	T	T	-0.17	-7.17	38	353.78879466438	26.076715002682	0.32644982041812	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	31.58	24.88	28.23	71.510935159999	1.6836	5.1836	10.37	15.5536	T	T	-0.42	-13.42	38	352.42332888608	25.202121820844	0.31743212183234	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	55	135	34.32	28.38	31.35	65.718810920226	0.5397	4.6097	10.46	15.0697	T	T	2.32	-25.68	38	348.7851805983	22.921747335516	0.42104877680877	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	34.34	29.37	31.855	64.143826681975	0.3461	4.4161	10.57	14.9861	T	T	2.34	-8.66	38	347.78661069883	22.308364078978	0.42183592832583	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	55	135	34.61	33.09	33.85	66.553073014945	0.7235	5.9435	10.47	16.4135	T	T	2.61	-5.39	38	349.31250240643	23.247820477689	0.432491792617	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L