MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 24, 2020

[ Monday, November 23, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 25, 2020 ]

DAY 55 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2020 03:00:07 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.78°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.88°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.606
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.61 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.66 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 55 in
SWE DAY: 38
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 135

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-24 03:00:07FORECAST20215513538.9828.7833.8855.3356653006280.61441.664410.4712.1344TT6.983.9838342.1278261997818.9318708806220.606281221028858934151220WETL
2020-11-23 23:00:01FORECAST20215513539.2327.2133.2252.8333542391360.63951.329510.4711.7995TT7.2310.2338340.496994301117.9895983172710.615923854247598934141216WETL
2020-11-23 19:00:03FORECAST20215513539.1229.2134.16552.6632347575730.53381.223810.4711.6938TT7.1210.1238340.38574553217.9258144250830.611689539754448934141216WETL
2020-11-23 14:59:20FORECAST20215513539.5126.8333.1752.8184689550560.591.2810.4711.75TT7.5110.5138340.4872620642917.9840158809350.626638803370268934141216WETL
2020-11-23 11:00:06FORECAST20215513538.3227.7533.03552.806435535350.74921.439210.4711.9092TT6.329.3238340.4793941530517.9795031784580.580524576888488934141216WETL
2020-11-23 07:00:29FORECAST20215513538.4927.6733.0853.3245404810110.69961.579610.4712.0496TT6.493.4938340.8179334057118.1739596865470.587196687382478934151220WETL
2020-11-23 03:00:07FORECAST20215513538.0527.7632.90553.3329821822020.78611.766110.4712.2361TT6.056.0538340.8234456799818.1771307557270.569880709028168934151220WETL
2020-11-22 23:00:06FORECAST20215513538.3327.9933.1654.5322233777560.85621.466210.4711.9362TT6.336.3338341.6053280977518.6284980588580.580917715306368934141216WETL
2020-11-22 19:00:06FORECAST20215513538.1929.6233.90554.3132260082080.86391.543910.4712.0139TT6.197.1938341.4627236775418.5459420844760.575406601601978934151220WETL
2020-11-22 15:00:05FORECAST20215513538.329.7534.02554.408340331230.83351.463510.4711.9335TT6.34.338341.524668973718.5817904210320.579738059281628934141216WETL
2020-11-22 11:00:06FORECAST20215513533.428.2730.83554.3119731332650.82631.646310.4712.1163TT1.44.438341.4619076152918.5454699524350.385229611313198924151217.5WETL
2020-11-22 07:00:07FORECAST20215513538.2928.4833.38553.9405761615010.83371.613710.4712.0837TT6.296.2938341.2198830358718.4055970887150.57934468085598934151220WETL
2020-11-22 03:00:07FORECAST20215513538.3228.4333.37554.3582842975670.85161.681610.4712.1516TT6.320.3238341.4920707456518.5629230669570.580524576888488934151220WETL
2020-11-21 23:00:06FORECAST20215513539.328.1433.7257.4633584773880.91941.759410.4812.2394TT7.34.338343.5063777243419.7390301224420.618611269080648934151220WETL
2020-11-21 19:00:06FORECAST20215513537.2327.332.26560.0316018335890.99221.792210.4812.2722TT5.232.2338345.1604723642220.7205360456630.537274176875248934151220WETL
2020-11-21 15:00:06FORECAST20215513539.2427.7133.47559.7549354949960.8861.72610.4812.206TT7.243.2438344.9828016639420.6144250603120.616308115339518934151220WETL
2020-11-21 11:00:04FORECAST20215513534.328.4731.38560.8077255451040.88421.834210.4812.3142TT2.3-3.738345.6582207200621.0186902179550.420261940718388924151217.5WETL
2020-11-21 07:00:07FORECAST20215513534.2628.4931.37560.0746783075950.83541.695410.4812.1754TT2.26-5.7438345.1881241557920.7370655142610.418689227041228924151217.5WETL
2020-11-21 03:00:07FORECAST20215513536.8726.5631.71560.1021816014140.78671.676710.4812.1567TT4.87-2.1338345.2057775779520.7476203338470.522866268938698934151220WETL
2020-11-20 23:00:05FORECAST20215513534.7626.9130.83560.5677376314980.85361.803610.512.3036TT2.761.7638345.5044150022320.9264207583790.438433521112358924151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 19:00:05FORECAST20215513535.626.9431.2760.701138049630.80941.799410.512.2994TT3.63.638345.5899214935320.977701533140.471926433508828924151217.5WETL
2020-11-20 15:00:06FORECAST20215513537.0226.5631.7961.5929284869080.81321.973210.512.4732TT5.023.0238346.1607942905521.3210570477090.528874285828238934151220WETL
2020-11-20 11:00:06FORECAST20215513539.8325.8732.8559.925174468490.72241.902410.4912.3924TT7.837.8338345.0921411877720.6797067683820.638765242640898934151220WETL
2020-11-20 07:00:24FORECAST20215513539.8425.932.8758.7638035192230.72241.712410.4912.2024TT7.847.8438344.3452867575120.2350387737890.639142030226538934151220WETL
2020-11-20 03:00:07FORECAST20215513539.6428.2333.93558.2760502099990.66921.519210.5112.0292TT7.640.6438344.0309648298820.048765780220.631581085769218934151220WETL
2020-11-19 23:00:06FORECAST20215513537.3227.1632.2447.8439713869710.77681.78689.7511.5368TT5.324.3238337.2141598616116.13366461570.540869268364228934151220WETL
2020-11-19 19:00:06FORECAST20215513537.3427.1932.26549.292423185060.77681.98689.7611.7468TT5.34-2.6638338.1714785813316.6692916313480.541667734389968934151220WETL
2020-11-19 15:00:06FORECAST20215513538.0127.7332.8748.5519313015660.80571.85579.7611.6157TT6.013.0138337.6825086565516.3951379620340.568299316100868934151220WETL
2020-11-19 10:59:34FORECAST20215513538.8726.2432.55550.4144089483170.83231.62239.8311.4523TT6.872.8738338.9106106021617.0859781198210.602017344266858934151220WETL
2020-11-19 07:00:07FORECAST20215513538.8826.2632.5748.8545603862230.83231.57239.9511.5223TT6.882.8838337.8824552277516.5070988123690.602405481556318934151220WETL
2020-11-19 03:00:23FORECAST20215513538.2427.8133.02550.8688893529520.81851.748510.1911.9385TT6.24-0.7638339.2094103350517.2552059618140.577376607791138934151220WETL
2020-11-18 23:00:06FORECAST20215513538.4625.9632.2156.1755197269070.83552.00559.9411.9455TT6.462.4638342.6728655822419.2498263203910.586021026636098934151220WETL
2020-11-18 19:00:00FORECAST20215513538.4725.9832.22555.9951482570350.83552.00559.8511.8555TT6.471.4738342.5559081314419.1814688621430.586412999754518934151220WETL
2020-11-18 15:00:05FORECAST20215513539.0826.432.7454.5263164189890.65872.05879.8311.8887TT7.085.0838341.6014827068718.6262705352710.610146463200268934151220WETL
2020-11-18 11:00:06FORECAST20215513539.0626.0432.5563.7677099221771.51653.83659.9513.7865TT7.061.0638347.5475540598222.1623116114490.609374271945088934151220WETL
2020-11-18 07:00:07FORECAST20215513539.0726.0532.5663.4459914690851.51653.836510.1213.9565TT7.076.0738347.3428912254222.0375141135350.60976042168778934151220WETL
2020-11-18 03:00:21FORECAST20215513537.0926.4731.7865.6830685859171.55514.335110.2314.5651TT5.095.0938348.7625635509722.9077953819180.531675863281778934151220WETL
2020-11-17 23:00:06FORECAST20215513531.8124.0927.9574.5597967075372.09065.560610.2615.8206TT-0.19-13.1938354.3169850170226.4178023728970.325724571581548924151217.5WETL
2020-11-17 19:00:00FORECAST20215513531.8324.1127.9773.7070121947171.99175.461710.2815.7417TT-0.17-7.1738353.7887946643826.0767150026820.326449820418128924151217.5WETL
2020-11-17 15:00:06FORECAST20215513531.5824.8828.2371.5109351599991.68365.183610.3715.5536TT-0.42-13.4238352.4233288860825.2021218208440.317432121832348924151217.5WETL
2020-11-17 11:00:06FORECAST20215513534.3228.3831.3565.7188109202260.53974.609710.4615.0697TT2.32-25.6838348.785180598322.9217473355160.421048776808778924151217.5WETL
2020-11-17 07:00:07FORECAST20215513534.3429.3731.85564.1438266819750.34614.416110.5714.9861TT2.34-8.6638347.7866106988322.3083640789780.421835928325838924151217.5WETL
2020-11-17 03:00:07FORECAST20215513534.6133.0933.8566.5530730149450.72355.943510.4716.4135TT2.61-5.3938349.3125024064323.2478204776890.4324917926178924151217.5WETL