Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 23, 2020

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DAY 54 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.42°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.09°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.26°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.212 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -3 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.46 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.05 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.96 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.01 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 55 in SWE DAY: 39 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.64 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 18.72 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 134 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-24 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	54	134	29.42006	23.09	26.25503	54.624085454545	0.45999999999998	1.05	10.96	12.01	T	T	-2.57994	-2.57994	39	342.63696713478	18.716230972657	0.21156702530921	89	1	4	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-24 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	54	134	29.42006	23.09	26.25503	54.624085454545	0.45999999999998	1.05	10.96	12.01	T	T	-2.57994	-2.57994	39	342.63696713478	18.716230972657	0.21156702530921	89	1	4	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-23 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.3	26.38	30.84	52.020044920215	0.1011	0.6911	10.96	11.6511	T	T	3.3	3.3	39	340.94299429699	17.735869878562	0.45020326750055	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-23 07:00:29	FORECAST	2021	54	134	29.25	25.79	27.52	52.580708356225	0.2933	0.8833	10.96	11.8433	T	T	-2.75	-2.75	39	341.30866251407	17.946251243106	0.20595187595698	89	1	4	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	31.69	27.84	29.765	52.385065833333	0.3898	0.9798	10.96	11.9398	T	T	-0.31	-0.31	39	341.1811223787	17.872795556899	0.29457800090987	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	31.95	26.22	29.085	53.449744731693	0.4252	0.6052	10.96	11.5652	T	T	-0.050000000000001	-0.049999999999997	39	341.87442536836	18.273100766233	0.30496435677902	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 19:00:04	FORECAST	2021	54	134	33.25	27.06	30.155	53.284415935079	0.5026	0.6826	10.96	11.6426	T	T	1.25	1.25	39	341.76688865432	18.210849047894	0.35913986416711	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	54	134	30.46	25.26	27.86	53.33324828101	0.4482	0.6282	10.96	11.5882	T	T	-1.54	-1.54	39	341.79865593914	18.229232579317	0.24779556845525	89	1	4	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-22 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	34.91	27.33	31.12	53.180793471329	0.6354	0.8154	10.96	11.7754	T	T	2.91	2.91	39	341.69946527588	18.1718486921	0.43251640267322	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	32.47	27.23	29.85	53.219586481391	0.5883	0.7783	10.96	11.7383	T	T	0.47	0.47	39	341.7247085586	18.186447679962	0.32620819738162	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	32.08	27.68	29.88	53.507581617295	0.6072	0.8272	10.96	11.7872	T	T	0.079999999999998	-5.92	39	341.91203421937	18.294886076928	0.31021774613385	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	54	134	34.32	27.78	31.05	56.421087260649	0.6309	0.8509	10.96	11.8109	T	T	2.32	-2.68	39	343.79943080393	19.39753768555	0.40602548949237	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	54	134	33.81	28.16	30.985	57.831856374343	0.6211	0.8111	10.96	11.7711	T	T	1.81	-3.19	39	344.70833354781	19.935122836776	0.38346368570591	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	33.93	27.81	30.87	57.974013913639	0.6971	0.8471	10.96	11.8071	T	T	1.93	-4.07	39	344.79973952923	19.989424896887	0.38874001003157	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	54	134	32.14	25.65	28.895	58.834644970064	0.8037	0.9637	10.96	11.9237	T	T	0.14	-5.86	39	345.35241313526	20.318686616368	0.31265558943131	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	31.79	26.66	29.225	58.023830100777	0.6985	0.8685	10.96	11.8285	T	T	-0.21	-8.21	39	344.83176306762	20.008459633587	0.29855345288042	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-21 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	32.3	26.13	29.215	58.242189697963	0.7223	0.9023	10.96	11.8623	T	T	0.3	-6.7	39	344.97208424144	20.091929570892	0.31919643425993	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	54	134	33.44	25.9	29.67	57.825145166685	0.7399	0.9599	10.98	11.9399	T	T	1.44	-0.56	39	344.70401748753	19.932559850756	0.36733442348624	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-20 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	54	134	33.69	26.37	30.03	57.930831683269	0.7853	0.9953	10.98	11.9753	T	T	1.69	-0.31	39	344.771977245	19.972927382888	0.37820887888649	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	36.69	27.81	32.25	58.671598411189	0.8708	1.1708	10.98	12.1508	T	T	4.69	-2.31	39	345.24780185691	20.256240382894	0.51380351932005	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-20 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.64	26.92	31.28	57.836393414155	0.8877	1.1777	10.98	12.1577	T	T	3.64	-0.36	39	344.71125133231	19.936855546341	0.46570497216591	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-20 07:00:24	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.66	26.1	30.88	56.629403654301	0.8148	0.9948	10.98	11.9748	T	T	3.66	-0.34	39	343.93384585777	19.476768587456	0.46661869325815	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	36.31	25.74	31.025	56.433591944005	0.6154	0.8454	11	11.8454	T	T	4.31	-6.69	39	343.80750139155	19.402292240818	0.49638290748188	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.34	26.38	30.86	44.988703775252	0.7821	1.0121	10.24	11.2521	T	T	3.34	-0.66	39	336.31261801328	15.130268747679	0.45202352265407	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.22	26.48	30.85	46.371163480693	0.8783	1.2083	10.25	11.4583	T	T	3.22	-7.78	39	337.22955757669	15.637726944911	0.44656593569813	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-19 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	34.69	26.57	30.63	45.525639309326	0.6801	1.0501	10.25	11.3001	T	T	2.69	-3.31	39	336.66913197232	15.327077468756	0.42259620514924	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-19 10:59:34	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.46	26.4	30.93	47.338291252973	0.5164	0.7864	10.32	11.1064	T	T	3.46	-3.54	39	337.86910984922	15.994146327425	0.45749019033743	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.47	26.4	30.935	46.249644861361	0.5164	0.7364	10.44	11.1764	T	T	3.47	-3.53	39	337.14908732532	15.593025554128	0.45794612373909	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-19 03:00:23	FORECAST	2021	54	134	32.86	24.37	28.615	48.457229414863	0.6521	0.9321	10.68	11.6121	T	T	0.86	-7.14	39	338.60709519241	16.407961693239	0.34252447481523	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	33.46	25.01	29.235	53.58046130144	0.8288	1.1688	10.43	11.5988	T	T	1.46	-3.54	39	341.95941689174	18.322343303431	0.36820060836565	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-18 18:59:59	FORECAST	2021	54	134	33.48	25.01	29.245	53.313599498362	0.8288	1.1688	10.34	11.5088	T	T	1.48	-4.52	39	341.78587413788	18.221835207985	0.36906746346107	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-18 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.26	26	30.63	53.130710826997	1.056	1.396	10.32	11.716	T	T	3.26	-1.74	39	341.66687195417	18.153003772962	0.44838405924293	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-18 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	37.84	28.28	33.06	56.186009960911	1.6475	2.3175	10.44	12.7575	T	T	5.84	-6.16	39	343.64766297824	19.308191015139	0.56622788188481	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-18 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	37.86	28.29	33.075	55.638160661177	1.6475	2.3175	10.61	12.9275	T	T	5.86	-1.14	39	343.2936151094	19.100225311413	0.5671320651279	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-18 03:00:21	FORECAST	2021	54	134	38.35	28.63	33.49	56.511372804352	2.1736	2.7936	10.71	13.5036	T	T	6.35	0.35	39	343.85769580729	19.431870439411	0.5891635552681	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-17 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	40.2	30.17	35.185	61.04174744863	2.8131	3.4831	10.74	14.2231	T	T	8.2	-12.8	39	346.76424399587	21.167095406211	0.66931422178264	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-17 19:00:00	FORECAST	2021	54	134	40.2	30.2	35.2	60.554752403797	2.8131	3.4931	10.75	14.2431	T	T	8.2	-6.8	39	346.45340504004	20.979400161652	0.66931422178264	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-17 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	36.71	32	34.355	59.626990318631	2.6863	3.5063	10.85	14.3563	T	T	4.71	-13.29	39	345.86016848113	20.622600917624	0.51471995502302	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-17 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.23	30.45	32.84	63.288920584227	2.152	4.222	10.8	15.022	T	T	3.23	-27.77	39	348.19359849801	22.036797003277	0.44702036282696	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.24	30.47	32.855	62.909211574539	2.152	4.222	10.91	15.132	T	T	3.24	-10.76	39	347.95265026723	21.889426893583	0.44747485952054	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	35.37	31.64	33.505	66.592214348279	2.8963	5.3763	10.8	16.1763	T	T	3.37	-7.63	39	350.27996172389	23.325918293024	0.45338937825782	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	54	134	38.99	28.42	33.705	70.086826491098	2.7152	4.9852	11.21	16.1952	T	T	6.99	-6.01	39	352.4681890802	24.703376811695	0.61751107726196	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-16 18:59:44	FORECAST	2021	54	134	38.99	29.1	34.045	63.648371564442	2.4111	4.6811	11.61	16.2911	T	T	6.99	-0.009999999999998	39	348.42147777006	22.176459678141	0.61751107726196	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-16 15:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	38.55	31.62	35.085	60.788408777298	1.9527	4.1927	11.66	15.8527	T	T	6.55	-14.45	39	346.60259109841	21.069419990961	0.59807989657605	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-16 10:59:44	FORECAST	2021	54	134	32.93	31.63	32.28	56.470669768395	0.7171	1.2871	11.57	12.8571	T	T	0.93	-13.07	39	343.83143010524	19.416391145468	0.34658784906548	88	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-16 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	32.95	31.95	32.45	57.414296061978	0.4788	1.0488	11.88	12.9288	T	T	0.95	-8.05	39	344.43965520246	19.77576033928	0.34743189787413	88	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-16 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	54	134	28.1	27.85	27.975	62.007771572962	0.2	1.04	11.73	12.77	T	T	-3.9	-20.9	39	347.3797007385	21.540241132477	0.1718919860053	88	1	4	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L