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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 23, 2020

[ Sunday, November 22, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 24, 2020 ]

DAY 54 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2020 03:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.212
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -3

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.46 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 55 in
SWE DAY: 39
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.72 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 134

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-24 03:00:07OBSERVATION20215413429.4200623.0926.2550354.6240854545450.459999999999981.0510.9612.01TT-2.57994-2.5799439342.63696713478 18.7162309726570.2115670253092189 14141212WETL
2020-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20215413435.326.3830.8452.0200449202150.10110.691110.9611.6511TT3.33.339340.9429942969917.7358698785620.450203267500558924131210.5WETL
2020-11-23 07:00:29FORECAST20215413429.2525.7927.5252.5807083562250.29330.883310.9611.8433TT-2.75-2.7539341.3086625140717.9462512431060.20595187595698891413129WETL
2020-11-23 03:00:07FORECAST20215413431.6927.8429.76552.3850658333330.38980.979810.9611.9398TT-0.31-0.3139341.181122378717.8727955568990.294578000909878924131210.5WETL
2020-11-22 23:00:06FORECAST20215413431.9526.2229.08553.4497447316930.42520.605210.9611.5652TT-0.050000000000001-0.04999999999999739341.8744253683618.2731007662330.304964356779028924131210.5WETL
2020-11-22 19:00:04FORECAST20215413433.2527.0630.15553.2844159350790.50260.682610.9611.6426TT1.251.2539341.7668886543218.2108490478940.359139864167118924131210.5WETL
2020-11-22 15:00:03FORECAST20215413430.4625.2627.8653.333248281010.44820.628210.9611.5882TT-1.54-1.5439341.7986559391418.2292325793170.24779556845525891413129WETL
2020-11-22 11:00:06FORECAST20215413434.9127.3331.1253.1807934713290.63540.815410.9611.7754TT2.912.9139341.6994652758818.17184869210.432516402673228924131210.5WETL
2020-11-22 07:00:07FORECAST20215413432.4727.2329.8553.2195864813910.58830.778310.9611.7383TT0.470.4739341.724708558618.1864476799620.326208197381628924131210.5WETL
2020-11-22 03:00:07FORECAST20215413432.0827.6829.8853.5075816172950.60720.827210.9611.7872TT0.079999999999998-5.9239341.9120342193718.2948860769280.310217746133858924131210.5WETL
2020-11-21 23:00:05FORECAST20215413434.3227.7831.0556.4210872606490.63090.850910.9611.8109TT2.32-2.6839343.7994308039319.397537685550.406025489492378924131210.5WETL
2020-11-21 19:00:05FORECAST20215413433.8128.1630.98557.8318563743430.62110.811110.9611.7711TT1.81-3.1939344.7083335478119.9351228367760.383463685705918924131210.5WETL
2020-11-21 15:00:06FORECAST20215413433.9327.8130.8757.9740139136390.69710.847110.9611.8071TT1.93-4.0739344.7997395292319.9894248968870.388740010031578924131210.5WETL
2020-11-21 11:00:04FORECAST20215413432.1425.6528.89558.8346449700640.80370.963710.9611.9237TT0.14-5.8639345.3524131352620.3186866163680.312655589431318924131210.5WETL
2020-11-21 07:00:07FORECAST20215413431.7926.6629.22558.0238301007770.69850.868510.9611.8285TT-0.21-8.2139344.8317630676220.0084596335870.298553452880428924131210.5WETL
2020-11-21 03:00:07FORECAST20215413432.326.1329.21558.2421896979630.72230.902310.9611.8623TT0.3-6.739344.9720842414420.0919295708920.319196434259938924131210.5WETL
2020-11-20 23:00:05FORECAST20215413433.4425.929.6757.8251451666850.73990.959910.9811.9399TT1.44-0.5639344.7040174875319.9325598507560.367334423486248924131210.5WETL
2020-11-20 19:00:05FORECAST20215413433.6926.3730.0357.9308316832690.78530.995310.9811.9753TT1.69-0.3139344.77197724519.9729273828880.378208878886498924141214WETL
2020-11-20 15:00:06FORECAST20215413436.6927.8132.2558.6715984111890.87081.170810.9812.1508TT4.69-2.3139345.2478018569120.2562403828940.513803519320058934141216WETL
2020-11-20 11:00:06FORECAST20215413435.6426.9231.2857.8363934141550.88771.177710.9812.1577TT3.64-0.3639344.7112513323119.9368555463410.465704972165918924141214WETL
2020-11-20 07:00:24FORECAST20215413435.6626.130.8856.6294036543010.81480.994810.9811.9748TT3.66-0.3439343.9338458577719.4767685874560.466618693258158924141214WETL
2020-11-20 03:00:07FORECAST20215413436.3125.7431.02556.4335919440050.61540.84541111.8454TT4.31-6.6939343.8075013915519.4022922408180.496382907481888924131210.5WETL
2020-11-19 23:00:06FORECAST20215413435.3426.3830.8644.9887037752520.78211.012110.2411.2521TT3.34-0.6639336.3126180132815.1302687476790.452023522654078924141214WETL
2020-11-19 19:00:06FORECAST20215413435.2226.4830.8546.3711634806930.87831.208310.2511.4583TT3.22-7.7839337.2295575766915.6377269449110.446565935698138924141214WETL
2020-11-19 15:00:06FORECAST20215413434.6926.5730.6345.5256393093260.68011.050110.2511.3001TT2.69-3.3139336.6691319723215.3270774687560.422596205149248924141214WETL
2020-11-19 10:59:34FORECAST20215413435.4626.430.9347.3382912529730.51640.786410.3211.1064TT3.46-3.5439337.8691098492215.9941463274250.457490190337438924131210.5WETL
2020-11-19 07:00:07FORECAST20215413435.4726.430.93546.2496448613610.51640.736410.4411.1764TT3.47-3.5339337.1490873253215.5930255541280.457946123739098924131210.5WETL
2020-11-19 03:00:23FORECAST20215413432.8624.3728.61548.4572294148630.65210.932110.6811.6121TT0.86-7.1439338.6070951924116.4079616932390.342524474815238924131210.5WETL
2020-11-18 23:00:06FORECAST20215413433.4625.0129.23553.580461301440.82881.168810.4311.5988TT1.46-3.5439341.9594168917418.3223433034310.368200608365658924141214WETL
2020-11-18 18:59:59FORECAST20215413433.4825.0129.24553.3135994983620.82881.168810.3411.5088TT1.48-4.5239341.7858741378818.2218352079850.369067463461078924141214WETL
2020-11-18 15:00:05FORECAST20215413435.262630.6353.1307108269971.0561.39610.3211.716TT3.26-1.7439341.6668719541718.1530037729620.448384059242938924141214WETL
2020-11-18 11:00:06FORECAST20215413437.8428.2833.0656.1860099609111.64752.317510.4412.7575TT5.84-6.1639343.6476629782419.3081910151390.566227881884818934151220WETL
2020-11-18 07:00:07FORECAST20215413437.8628.2933.07555.6381606611771.64752.317510.6112.9275TT5.86-1.1439343.293615109419.1002253114130.56713206512798934151220WETL
2020-11-18 03:00:21FORECAST20215413438.3528.6333.4956.5113728043522.17362.793610.7113.5036TT6.350.3539343.8576958072919.4318704394110.58916355526818934151220WETL
2020-11-17 23:00:06FORECAST20215413440.230.1735.18561.041747448632.81313.483110.7414.2231TT8.2-12.839346.7642439958721.1670954062110.669314221782648934151220WETL
2020-11-17 19:00:00FORECAST20215413440.230.235.260.5547524037972.81313.493110.7514.2431TT8.2-6.839346.4534050400420.9794001616520.669314221782648934151220WETL
2020-11-17 15:00:06FORECAST20215413436.713234.35559.6269903186312.68633.506310.8514.3563TT4.71-13.2939345.8601684811320.6226009176240.514719955023028934151220WETL
2020-11-17 11:00:06FORECAST20215413435.2330.4532.8463.2889205842272.1524.22210.815.022TT3.23-27.7739348.1935984980122.0367970032770.447020362826968924151217.5WETL
2020-11-17 07:00:07FORECAST20215413435.2430.4732.85562.9092115745392.1524.22210.9115.132TT3.24-10.7639347.9526502672321.8894268935830.447474859520548924151217.5WETL
2020-11-17 03:00:07FORECAST20215413435.3731.6433.50566.5922143482792.89635.376310.816.1763TT3.37-7.6339350.2799617238923.3259182930240.453389378257828924151217.5WETL
2020-11-16 23:00:06FORECAST20215413438.9928.4233.70570.0868264910982.71524.985211.2116.1952TT6.99-6.0139352.468189080224.7033768116950.617511077261968934151220WETL
2020-11-16 18:59:44FORECAST20215413438.9929.134.04563.6483715644422.41114.681111.6116.2911TT6.99-0.00999999999999839348.4214777700622.1764596781410.617511077261968934151220WETL
2020-11-16 15:00:07FORECAST20215413438.5531.6235.08560.7884087772981.95274.192711.6615.8527TT6.55-14.4539346.6025910984121.0694199909610.598079896576058934151220WETL
2020-11-16 10:59:44FORECAST20215413432.9331.6332.2856.4706697683950.71711.287111.5712.8571TT0.93-13.0739343.8314301052419.4163911454680.346587849065488824141214WETL
2020-11-16 07:00:07FORECAST20215413432.9531.9532.4557.4142960619780.47881.048811.8812.9288TT0.95-8.0539344.4396552024619.775760339280.347431897874138824141214WETL
2020-11-16 03:00:07FORECAST20215413428.127.8527.97562.0077715729620.21.0411.7312.77TT-3.9-20.939347.379700738521.5402411324770.17189198600538814141212WETL