Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 22, 2020

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DAY 53 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/23/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.96°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.34°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.15°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.637 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 12 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.59 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.60 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.15 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.75 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 52 in SWE DAY: 40 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.15 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 17.92 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 133 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-23 07:00:29	OBSERVATION	2021	53	133	39.95996	28.34006	34.15001	52.385065833333	0.59000000000003	0.60000000000003	12.15	12.75	T	T	7.95996	11.95996	40	342.15480294892	17.92380187767	0.63695631299762	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-23 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	53	133	39.95996	28.34006	34.15001	52.385065833333	0.59000000000003	0.60000000000003	12.15	12.75	T	T	7.95996	11.95996	40	342.15480294892	17.92380187767	0.63695631299762	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-22 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	53	133	39.93	27.12	33.525	52.872950069937	0.184	0.194	12.15	12.344	T	T	7.93	11.93	40	342.47153274607	18.107480251258	0.63581751248988	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	40.12	27.34	33.73	52.594784856135	0.1925	0.2025	12.15	12.3525	T	T	8.12	12.12	40	342.29099863825	18.00272143157	0.64301884112475	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	34.45	27.37	30.91	52.740553827559	0.2225	0.2325	12.15	12.3825	T	T	2.45	6.45	40	342.38562116751	18.057607282967	0.41778226741948	89	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-21 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	53	133	38.46	27.63	33.045	55.859124	0.2091	0.2291	12.15	12.3791	T	T	6.46	7.46	40	344.40159856041	19.237971599784	0.57865639375495	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-21 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	53	133	37.9	27.65	32.775	56.246608919984	0.1817	0.2017	12.15	12.3517	T	T	5.9	6.9	40	344.650971914	19.385448431139	0.55636333535841	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-21 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	53	133	37.29	27.75	32.52	56.245778001549	0.138	0.158	12.15	12.308	T	T	5.29	6.29	40	344.65043742305	19.385131991433	0.53187757791087	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-21 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	53	133	37.02	26.82	31.92	56.044729832235	0.1543	0.1743	12.15	12.3243	T	T	5.02	6.02	40	344.52107937994	19.308590815359	0.52099538686455	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	37.12	26.87	31.995	55.604721585926	0.1593	0.1793	12.15	12.3293	T	T	5.12	4.12	40	344.23773948727	19.141243663558	0.5250280876827	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-21 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	36.52	26.5	31.51	55.67010925972	0.1675	0.1875	12.15	12.3375	T	T	4.52	4.52	40	344.2798654072	19.166097723141	0.50080788744576	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-20 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	53	133	36.1	26.26	31.18	55.516669486809	0.2076	0.2476	12.15	12.3976	T	T	4.1	10.1	40	344.18100098661	19.107782875413	0.48384665640049	89	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-20 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	53	133	36.21	26.59	31.4	55.389164505934	0.1955	0.2355	12.15	12.3855	T	T	4.21	10.21	40	344.09881757152	19.059346012767	0.48828730720571	89	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-20 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	53	133	31.97	27.36	29.665	55.957527116604	0.2876	0.3276	12.15	12.4776	T	T	-0.030000000000001	4.97	40	344.46495102599	19.275406837757	0.32323082639809	89	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-20 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	53	133	36.17	27.24	31.705	55.608570739197	0.2904	0.3204	12.15	12.4704	T	T	4.17	8.17	40	344.24021949284	19.142706596944	0.48667232808509	89	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-20 07:00:24	FORECAST	2021	53	133	37.53	27.1	32.315	54.886843489593	0.1844	0.2144	12.15	12.3644	T	T	5.53	7.53	40	343.77478714454	18.868712937671	0.54153093273378	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	37.31	27.03	32.17	55.226137378902	0.2338	0.2838	12.15	12.4338	T	T	5.31	1.31	40	343.9936995558	18.997443309145	0.53268281967579	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	36.65	27.17	31.91	42.556062236275	0.2328	0.3528	11.32	11.6728	T	T	4.65	7.65	40	335.68958452652	14.28562685118	0.50605892704099	89	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	36.27	26.92	31.595	43.021108142905	0.331	0.461	11.32	11.781	T	T	4.27	1.27	40	335.99912896721	14.45505486322	0.49071012775432	89	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-19 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	35.28	27.6	31.44	43.053590066013	0.3711	0.5011	11.32	11.8211	T	T	3.28	6.28	40	336.02073596751	14.466899020025	0.45084387835153	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-19 10:59:34	FORECAST	2021	53	133	34.52	27.24	30.88	45.646768183966	0.2663	0.4663	11.32	11.7863	T	T	2.52	4.52	40	337.73998062681	15.416738602129	0.42055163059088	89	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	35.49	27.26	31.375	44.814684255008	0.2166	0.4566	11.4	11.8566	T	T	3.49	5.49	40	337.18955274238	15.111043340237	0.45927265801066	89	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-19 03:00:23	FORECAST	2021	53	133	34.39	26.37	30.38	46.235437987391	0.275	0.505	11.65	12.155	T	T	2.39	4.39	40	338.12868675611	15.63352792827	0.41541176242061	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	34.31	25.73	30.02	50.732700038013	0.3433	0.5533	11.42	11.9733	T	T	2.31	7.31	40	341.07918240877	17.303867850355	0.41225588565444	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-18 18:59:59	FORECAST	2021	53	133	34.32	25.74	30.03	50.410427392085	0.3433	0.5433	11.34	11.8833	T	T	2.32	6.32	40	340.86886987847	17.183345415231	0.4126500646177	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-18 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	53	133	33.46	25.06	29.26	50.237013025554	0.3391	0.4791	11.38	11.8591	T	T	1.46	7.46	40	340.75562979859	17.118545012723	0.37911272977273	89	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-18 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	32.35	28	30.175	53.943389238354	0.6686	0.8486	11.46	12.3086	T	T	0.35	0.35	40	343.16507788914	18.511487369584	0.33716767199713	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-18 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	32.37	28.02	30.195	53.359190071239	0.6686	0.8786	11.6	12.4786	T	T	0.37	5.37	40	342.78680484481	18.290826273627	0.33790762779585	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-18 03:00:21	FORECAST	2021	53	133	34.97	28.18	31.575	53.38479337955	0.6068	0.7868	11.74	12.5268	T	T	2.97	5.97	40	342.8033949295	18.30048840812	0.4384428842035	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	35.64	28.33	31.985	58.870235986308	0.6643	0.8543	11.76	12.6143	T	T	3.64	-9.36	40	346.33301585972	20.388706373511	0.46530466813505	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 19:00:00	FORECAST	2021	53	133	35.64	28.36	32	58.329299381358	0.6643	0.8343	11.8	12.6343	T	T	3.64	-3.36	40	345.98713054715	20.181186919782	0.46530466813505	89	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	33.32	29.18	31.25	58.879140965835	0.8145	1.0145	11.86	12.8745	T	T	1.32	-5.68	40	346.33870590043	20.392125486636	0.37373105781141	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-17 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	32.48	27.96	30.22	62.143693186216	1.919	2.289	11.78	14.069	T	T	0.48	-18.52	40	348.41601835169	21.651858145611	0.34198851633816	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	32.49	27.97	30.23	61.737759971467	1.919	2.309	11.87	14.179	T	T	0.49	-1.51	40	348.158650152	21.494535175074	0.3423604315116	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	33.25	27.21	30.23	66.178572817187	2.3191	2.7291	11.75	14.4791	T	T	1.25	1.25	40	350.95982098871	23.226020069208	0.37104934840624	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	33.69	27.35	30.52	64.481185919076	1.8505	2.7105	11.97	14.6805	T	T	1.69	-1.31	40	349.89287396142	22.561507457666	0.38800466061218	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 18:59:44	FORECAST	2021	53	133	33.72	27.36	30.54	62.780778396416	1.8505	2.6605	12.42	15.0805	T	T	1.72	4.72	40	348.81940597288	21.899153826753	0.3891689293314	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 15:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	32.45	27.72	30.085	60.939999443965	1.7467	2.8367	12.26	15.0967	T	T	0.45	-8.55	40	347.65208326498	21.185917760861	0.34087369106664	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 10:59:44	FORECAST	2021	53	133	34.99	28.72	31.855	56.492700435062	0.5025	1.0225	12.32	13.3425	T	T	2.99	-2.01	40	344.80922144015	19.479204054065	0.4431366506855	88	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-16 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	35.01	28.73	31.87	57.436764061978	0.5025	1.0225	12.63	13.6525	T	T	3.01	3.01	40	345.41538622967	19.83954204225	0.44393530832518	88	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-16 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	33.93	26.66	30.295	60.678958186061	0.5872	1.1772	12.59	13.7672	T	T	1.93	-5.07	40	347.48610266611	21.085094693914	0.40121652684835	88	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-15 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	53	133	29.65	25.61	27.63	48.485384968854	0.3913	0.5513	11.24	11.7913	T	T	-2.35	-5.35	40	339.60901087326	16.466073631082	0.24730907864268	88	1	4	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-15 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	29.68	25.63	27.655	49.326199365875	0.3386	0.4986	11.35	11.8486	T	T	-2.32	-4.32	40	340.16004619639	16.778802254988	0.24826863260546	88	1	4	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-15 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	32.86	25.07	28.965	48.389590611226	0.3004	0.4704	11.65	12.1204	T	T	0.86	2.86	40	339.54615646553	16.430499504982	0.36002590950666	88	2	4	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-15 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	53	133	31.45	29.55	30.5	49.710051384771	0.2368	0.8268	11.05	11.8768	T	T	-0.55	0.45	40	340.41121609727	16.921859044148	0.30819922339708	88	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-15 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	31.48	29.9	30.69	50.701797865578	0.0328	0.6228	11.39	12.0128	T	T	-0.52	1.48	40	341.0590233618	17.292305662722	0.3092675133614	88	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-15 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	53	133	28.49	28.25	28.37	52.310107962418	0.0003	0.5903	11.47	12.0603	T	T	-3.51	0.48999999999999	40	342.10610622002	17.895607350972	0.21176810685599	88	1	4	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L