Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 21, 2020

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DAY 52 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/22/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.42°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.98°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.70°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.819 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 17 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.39 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.68 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.07 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 53 in SWE DAY: 41 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.36 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 18.11 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 132 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 18.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-22 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	52	132	46.41998	22.98002	34.7	52.74103625	0	1.39	11.68	13.07	T	T	14.41998	17.41998	41	343.35504523542	18.108900887381	0.81940692570461	89	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-22 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	52	132	46.41998	22.98002	34.7	52.74103625	0	1.39	11.68	13.07	T	T	14.41998	17.41998	41	343.35504523542	18.108900887381	0.81940692570461	89	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-21 11:00:01	FORECAST	2021	52	132	42.77	32.54	37.655	55.70726	0.0112	1.4012	11.68	13.0812	T	T	10.77	13.77	41	345.26563352982	19.23380241611	0.71464424369251	89	4	4	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	41.27	28.81	35.04	55.2458635	0.0093	1.3993	11.68	13.0793	T	T	9.27	12.27	41	344.96938585475	19.05813160261	0.66450871205863	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-21 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	41.51	26.94	34.225	55.235335265043	0.0128	1.4028	11.68	13.0828	T	T	9.51	12.51	41	344.96262196546	19.05412607817	0.67276171653569	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-20 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	52	132	41.74	26.02	33.88	54.804517136044	0.0116	1.4216	11.68	13.1016	T	T	9.74	18.74	41	344.68568665076	18.8903326206	0.6805924900603	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-20 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	52	132	41.52	27.38	34.45	54.808569706048	0.0115	1.4215	11.68	13.1015	T	T	9.52	18.52	41	344.68829310592	18.891872339555	0.67310380210425	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-20 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	52	132	41.08	26.35	33.715	54.819545323894	0.0078	1.4178	11.68	13.0978	T	T	9.08	18.08	41	344.69535206104	18.896042475246	0.65791810482248	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-20 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.49	27.02	33.755	54.748513918261	0.0022	1.4122	11.68	13.0922	T	T	8.49	17.49	41	344.64966481531	18.869056971065	0.63715195208863	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-20 07:00:24	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.59	26.82	33.705	54.385535062984	0.0017	1.4117	11.68	13.0917	T	T	8.59	14.59	41	344.41606887548	18.731252190083	0.64070215485576	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.66	26.95	33.805	54.543530021766	0.0022	1.4322	11.68	13.1122	T	T	8.66	8.66	41	344.51777339219	18.791215516049	0.64318011328423	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.3	27.43	33.865	42.171533011133	0	0.67	11.68	12.35	T	T	8.3	16.3	41	336.4288380262	14.187719848719	0.63037422856939	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.06	26.75	33.405	42.320108818819	0.0026	0.6826	11.68	12.3626	T	T	8.06	10.06	41	336.52749406375	14.241880169303	0.62175491236447	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-19 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.36	26.71	33.535	42.217272548786	0.0026	0.6826	11.68	12.3626	T	T	8.36	16.36	41	336.45921356963	14.204390320819	0.63251905596017	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-19 10:59:34	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.04	26.61	33.325	44.62878245485	0.0026	0.7526	11.68	12.4326	T	T	8.04	15.04	41	338.05570543175	15.087014535335	0.62103382673246	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.35	25.91	33.13	44.484382574538	0.0033	0.8733	11.68	12.5533	T	T	8.35	15.35	41	337.96038337993	15.03395898931	0.63216186947686	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-19 03:00:23	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.31	25.56	32.935	45.429869330571	0.0034	1.1134	11.68	12.7934	T	T	8.31	15.31	41	338.58388883555	15.381821827235	0.63073198360066	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	39.84	25.72	32.78	50.137919161109	0.003	1.173	11.37	12.543	T	T	7.84	17.84	41	341.6664387068	17.130444283946	0.6138001860716	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-18 18:59:59	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.39	24.38	32.385	49.80480980709	0.0016	1.0816	11.37	12.4516	T	T	8.39	17.39	41	341.44954832246	17.005829812917	0.63358992689979	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-18 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	52	132	40.54	25.91	33.225	49.713721832503	0.0033	1.0633	11.37	12.4333	T	T	8.54	18.54	41	341.3902081955	16.971777846571	0.63892854874287	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-18 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	34.82	25.8	30.31	52.261204828391	0.0029	1.1829	11.37	12.5529	T	T	2.82	12.82	41	343.04462389198	17.927925354497	0.4259693283746	89	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-18 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	39.45	28.57	34.01	51.654453379195	0.0022	1.1222	11.6	12.7222	T	T	7.45	18.45	41	342.65155105121	17.699478569084	0.59958241003097	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-18 03:00:21	FORECAST	2021	52	132	39.55	26.16	32.855	52.930993862219	0.0051	1.1051	11.72	12.8251	T	T	7.55	15.55	41	343.47783160089	18.180622996275	0.60324141757412	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-17 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	38.91	28.87	33.89	58.322797119702	0.0124	0.9224	11.94	12.8624	T	T	6.91	-0.090000000000003	41	346.93843815896	20.234420141771	0.57968030533075	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-17 19:00:00	FORECAST	2021	52	132	38.92	28.87	33.895	57.771180785825	0.016	0.906	11.97	12.876	T	T	6.92	5.92	41	346.5865680914	20.022715283147	0.58005088853774	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-17 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	38.53	27.48	33.005	58.173629466225	0.005	0.955	12.01	12.965	T	T	6.53	5.53	41	346.84333436123	20.17713561596	0.56554873862181	89	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-17 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	39.29	26.49	32.89	58.39855980387	0.1528	1.1128	11.95	13.0628	T	T	7.29	-5.71	41	346.98672785718	20.263525177916	0.59370990870942	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	39.29	26.51	32.9	57.929149539001	0.1528	1.1628	12.01	13.1728	T	T	7.29	11.29	41	346.68738502464	20.083305370377	0.59370990870942	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-17 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	39.08	28.02	33.55	58.316043364633	0.1627	1.1627	11.91	13.0727	T	T	7.08	13.08	41	346.93413299242	20.231825944257	0.58597035355991	89	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-16 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	37.65	28.42	33.035	57.718503027994	0.4245	1.5845	12.16	13.7445	T	T	5.65	9.65	41	346.5529397263	20.002516900953	0.53252993258919	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-16 18:59:44	FORECAST	2021	52	132	37.66	28.43	33.045	56.934703318372	0.4245	1.5945	12.55	14.1445	T	T	5.66	15.66	41	346.0520466777	19.70237061031	0.53290684656775	89	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-16 15:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	32.03	30.13	31.08	57.114683154133	0.4928	1.8628	12.4	14.2628	T	T	0.030000000000001	4.03	41	346.16715235081	19.771227224885	0.3259467234107	89	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 10:59:44	FORECAST	2021	52	132	38.05	28.45	33.25	55.490082441144	0.073	1.313	12.44	13.753	T	T	6.05	8.05	41	345.12623413675	19.15108318485	0.55332391816194	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-16 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	38.06	28.44	33.25	56.408593030875	0.073	1.413	12.65	14.063	T	T	6.06	13.06	41	345.71527221879	19.501312095148	0.55369993762181	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-16 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	37.42	28.72	33.07	57.398575520318	0.2538	1.4838	12.61	14.0938	T	T	5.42	6.42	41	346.34860810605	19.879916738732	0.52955202692845	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-15 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	52	132	37.93	25.87	31.9	46.520569041459	0.1509	0.9509	11.36	12.3109	T	T	5.93	9.93	41	339.30129808855	15.784489463585	0.54880804050493	88	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-15 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	37.94	25.87	31.905	47.577725808941	0.1509	0.9609	11.46	12.4209	T	T	5.94	10.94	41	339.99475024477	16.176177003625	0.54918461323832	88	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-15 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	37.56	25.71	31.635	47.019944854959	0.1482	0.9982	11.73	12.7282	T	T	5.56	14.56	41	339.62910051025	15.969341577131	0.5348468064344	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-15 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	36.68	26.01	31.345	49.710051384771	0.2506	1.3406	11.21	12.5506	T	T	4.68	13.68	41	341.38781675966	16.970405913258	0.50150069479954	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-15 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	36.69	26	31.345	50.701797865578	0.2506	1.3406	11.55	12.8906	T	T	4.69	14.69	41	342.03316702784	17.341696497969	0.50188012931123	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-15 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	36.67	25.46	31.065	52.308261729725	0.251	1.321	11.65	12.971	T	T	4.67	16.67	41	343.0750835405	17.945661262784	0.50112125893031	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-14 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	38.43	22.92	30.675	48.414950251457	0.0013	1.1313	11.67	12.8013	T	T	6.43	16.43	41	340.54261593692	16.487353809087	0.56757591132641	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-14 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	38.44	22.91	30.675	48.827150709058	0.0013	1.1313	11.67	12.8013	T	T	6.44	10.44	41	340.81192532227	16.640875241155	0.56794986268085	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-14 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	38.06	23.84	30.95	47.708183870788	0.0013	1.0013	11.51	12.5113	T	T	6.06	13.06	41	340.08019646743	16.224608543882	0.55369993762181	88	3	4	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-14 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	52	132	30.26	26.28	28.27	48.486527778233	0.0431	1.2031	11.3	12.5031	T	T	-1.74	3.26	41	340.58940103669	16.513997454337	0.27197001767346	88	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-14 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	28.74	26.28	27.51	57.701009251209	0.0347	1.1947	11.27	12.4647	T	T	-3.26	5.74	41	346.54177107437	19.995809938692	0.22618751896301	88	1	4	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-14 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	52	132	25.34	25.04	25.19	55.337813636818	0.0034	0.8834	10.98	11.8634	T	T	-6.66	-2.66	41	345.02845174858	19.093120162263	0.14118229641655	88	1	4	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L