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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 12, 2020

[ Wednesday, November 11, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, November 13, 2020 ]

DAY 43 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/13/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.114
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 157

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.30 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.75 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 22 in
SWE DAY: 50
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 331.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.23 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-13 07:00:07OBSERVATION20214312328.4599420.9400824.7000121.8007095652170.300000000000011.865.757.61TT-3.54006157.4599450331.80167330236 7.23351191291790.1143821197454388 15152235WETL
2020-11-13 03:00:06OBSERVATION20214312328.4599420.9400824.7000121.8007095652170.300000000000011.865.757.61TT-3.54006157.4599450331.80167330236 7.23351191291790.1143821197454388 15152235WETL
2020-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20214312336.2526.9231.58524.1911075349110.67422.23425.757.9842TT4.25165.2550333.412423914328.06561580038670.381175045954568825152240WETL
2020-11-12 07:00:04FORECAST20214312335.5722.3228.94523.5125777281420.70792.26795.758.0179TT3.57164.5750332.956195612447.82865842940420.351591775410828825152240WETL
2020-11-12 03:00:03FORECAST20214312335.1721.1628.16523.4213096353450.72292.28295.758.0329TT3.17164.1750332.894768966797.79683145995770.334587602129488825152240WETL
2020-11-11 22:59:55FORECAST20214312334.9321.928.41519.5143043448960.84822.41825.758.1682TT2.93171.9350330.251819441656.44463451504020.324542829379418825152240WETL
2020-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20214312334.5223.7829.1519.7707931195880.85922.42925.758.1792TT2.52171.5250330.426130490136.53278666722640.307677638188038825152240WETL
2020-11-11 15:00:03FORECAST20214312332.9625.729.3320.3585305613470.85452.42455.758.1745TT0.96169.9650330.825131786696.73511355594090.247350993009918815152235WETL
2020-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20214312332.6626.0529.35520.2831765158170.81372.38375.758.1337TT0.66169.6650330.774008958096.70914761054150.236518632687218815152235WETL
2020-11-11 07:00:04FORECAST20214312333.3526.1429.74520.104714375180.79032.37035.758.1203TT1.35170.3550330.652894944556.64768201018670.26181960118298825152240WETL
2020-11-11 03:00:01FORECAST20214312333.5226.4429.9819.9647470897250.75912.33915.758.0891TT1.52168.5250330.557867189896.59950421696490.268259414925468825152240WETL
2020-11-10 23:00:03FORECAST20214312333.9324.5229.22512.1416108569140.76191.54195.757.2919TT1.93172.9350325.192443218763.94836009917110.284111137291138825153260WETL
2020-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20214312333.3425.1429.2412.0674367459030.75431.54435.757.2943TT1.34172.3450325.141059663423.92361917098430.261443269715298825153260WETL
2020-11-10 15:00:04FORECAST20214312333.4424.9629.212.2568402352890.77271.56275.757.3127TT1.44167.4450325.272248301913.98680998040970.265219026364898825153260WETL
2020-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20214312333.912529.45516.4038074415930.76431.58435.757.3343TT1.91172.9150328.128846192075.38256240896680.283327612395828825152240WETL
2020-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20214312334.4425.3629.917.6700258141990.66991.76995.757.5199TT2.44170.4450328.995088988675.81335171517450.304432239959048825152240WETL
2020-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20214312334.2424.929.5718.8277147795750.63812.04815.757.7981TT2.24170.2450329.784650505556.20909133840050.29638617765368825152240WETL
2020-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20214312334.6525.0629.85517.1092144489990.44492.00495.87.8049TT2.65179.6550328.611771520285.62228926940580.31298353699188825152240WETL
2020-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20214312336.227.3631.7815.992194689890.38511.84515.87.6451TT4.2179.250327.846653935035.24298751815780.378973535219318825152240WETL
2020-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20214312336.1825.9631.0716.0039790975620.39271.83275.87.6327TT4.18175.1850327.854737157615.2469803605070.378094024158188825152240WETL
2020-11-09 13:58:06FORECAST20214312335.5526.731.12516.2843747605190.4531.8635.87.663TT3.55173.5550328.046996267615.34204022628420.350734131246798825152240WETL
2020-11-09 13:57:16FORECAST20214312335.5526.731.12500.4531.8635.87.663TT3.55173.5550316.6511985458600.3507341312467988251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:56:20FORECAST20214312335.5526.731.12500.4531.8635.87.663TT3.55173.5550316.6511985458600.3507341312467988251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:54:44FORECAST20214312335.5526.731.12500.4531.8635.87.663TT3.55173.5550316.6511985458600.3507341312467988251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:53:55FORECAST20214312335.5526.731.12500.4531.8635.87.663TT3.55173.5550316.6511985458600.3507341312467988251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:49:33FORECAST20214312335.5526.731.12500.4531.8635.87.663TT3.55173.5550316.6511985458600.3507341312467988251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:49:03FORECAST20214312335.5526.731.12500.4531.8635.87.663TT3.55173.5550316.6511985458600.3507341312467988251552100WETL
2020-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20214312334.1424.729.4200.23891.71895.87.5189TT2.14177.1450316.6511985458600.2924000109563688251552100WETL
2020-11-09 07:00:03FORECAST20214312335.3323.6329.4800.28821.83825.897.7282TT3.33179.3350316.6511985458600.3413510304240688251552100WETL
2020-11-09 02:58:03FORECAST20214312335.3424.0929.71500.36331.93335.867.7933TT3.34179.3450316.6511985458600.3417754685071888251552100WETL
2020-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20214312335.5325.9130.7200.70792.02795.817.8379TT3.53187.5350316.6511985458600.3498772466727188251552100WETL
2020-11-08 19:00:04FORECAST20214312335.5326.5131.0200.70361.94365.817.7536TT3.53188.5350316.6511985458600.3498772466727188251552100WETL
2020-11-08 14:57:59FORECAST20214312335.127.331.200.94012.34015.798.1301TT3.1192.150316.6511985458600.3316452268917788251552100WETL
2020-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20214312336.0526.6431.34501.68443.01445.728.7344TT4.05188.0550316.6511985458600.3723927738902988251552100WETL
2020-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20214312336.0526.6431.34501.68443.01445.698.7044TT4.05187.0550316.6511985458600.3723927738902988251552100WETL
2020-11-08 03:00:05FORECAST20214312336.0928.5832.33501.69852.90855.718.6185TT4.09193.0950316.6511985458600.3741440951679388251552100WETH
2020-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20214312335.6727.9331.800.80812.05815.467.5181TT3.67198.6750316.6511985458600.355891252788788251552100WETL
2020-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20214312335.6727.9331.800.80812.07815.447.5181TT3.67196.6750316.6511985458600.355891252788788251552100WETL
2020-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20214312335.3628.431.8800.90672.03675.497.5267TT3.36196.3650316.6511985458600.3426249441587788251552100WETL
2020-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20214312334.4325.1529.7900.29261.25265.56.7526TT2.43191.4350316.6511985458600.304027637653858825145280WETL
2020-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20214312334.4325.1529.7900.29261.11265.546.6526TT2.43193.4350316.6511985458600.304027637653858825145280WETL
2020-11-07 02:57:58FORECAST20214312334.7122.5728.6400.3391.0895.526.609TT2.71202.7150316.6511985458600.315445618228598825245290WETL
2020-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20214312334.1326.2630.19500.85151.70155.086.7815TT2.13205.1350316.6511985458600.2920027676087588252552112.5WETL
2020-11-06 18:57:58FORECAST20214312334.1326.2630.19500.85151.71155.16.8115TT2.13206.1350316.6511985458600.2920027676087588252552112.5WETL
2020-11-06 14:57:58FORECAST20214312336.092631.04500.85541.655456.6554TT4.09215.0950316.6511985458600.3741440951679388252552112.5WETL
2020-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20214312332.4324.5728.500.7391.4094.956.359TT0.43206.4350316.6511985458600.228393580278228815245280WETL
2020-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20214312332.4324.5728.500.7391.4095.086.489TT0.43207.4350316.6511985458600.228393580278228815245280WETL
2020-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20214312333.4324.9329.1800.48061.17065.156.3206TT1.43204.4350316.6511985458600.264840210121348825245290WETL
2020-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20214312334.3526.4330.3900.64492.07494.756.8249TT2.35200.3550316.6511985458600.3007994802034588252552112.5WETL
2020-11-05 19:00:04FORECAST20214312334.3526.4330.3900.55681.95684.666.6168TT2.35204.3550316.6511985458600.3007994802034588252552112.5WETL
2020-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20214312333.1328.630.86500.55851.96854.726.6885TT1.13203.1350316.6511985458600.2536048803163688252552112.5WETL
2020-11-05 10:59:39FORECAST20214312329.9126.6128.2600.00440.86444.575.4344TF-2.09198.9150316.6511985458600.150173610185168815135252.5WETL
2020-11-05 07:00:04FORECAST20214312327.5626.7527.15500.00230.86234.545.4023TF-4.44204.5650316.6511985458600.0954744181223488815235260WETL
2020-11-05 02:58:14FORECAST20214312326.8225.7726.29500.00160.76164.775.5316TF-5.18211.8250316.6511985458600.0817316646160488815235260WETL