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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 10, 2020

[ Monday, November 9, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 11, 2020 ]

DAY 41 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/11/2020 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.089
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 169

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 17 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.54 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-11 07:00:04OBSERVATION20214112125.7199823.2100624.4650216.7537245454551.561.885.477.35TT-6.28002168.7199852330.40918436612 5.53558446215820.08920299021031988 15152235WETL
2020-11-11 03:00:01OBSERVATION20214112125.7199823.2100624.4650216.7537245454551.561.885.477.35TT-6.28002168.7199852330.40918436612 5.53558446215820.08920299021031988 15152235WETL
2020-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20214112129.1821.4225.312.4180854913670.75451.07455.476.5445TT-2.82172.1852327.447155784734.06626677443990.16627985121198815143242WETL
2020-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20214112125.621.1523.37514.189595072941.02671.34675.476.8167TT-6.4168.652328.6613609014.66357162730680.0871126061679088815143242WETL
2020-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20214112126.2420.4123.32515.7066500438521.31511.63515.477.1051TT-5.76169.2452329.69682716075.17843268478140.0986941463090468815152235WETL
2020-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20214112129.0620.0324.54514.706050699831.48781.85785.477.3278TT-2.94178.0652329.014315865464.83850121008720.163042953683738815153252.5WETL
2020-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20214112126.5321.1423.83514.0291680201071.3871.7575.477.227TT-5.47175.5352328.551627915364.60930599130420.104296907492728815153252.5WETL
2020-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20214112126.6321.9824.30513.8872029462051.3491.7195.477.189TT-5.37175.6352328.454485725774.56131410186520.106281185043118815153252.5WETL
2020-11-09 13:58:06FORECAST20214112125.6621.3923.52513.6906691393481.2931.6635.477.133TT-6.34174.6652328.319946059984.49491975335580.0881533690147468815153252.5WETL
2020-11-09 13:57:16FORECAST20214112125.6621.3923.52501.2931.6635.477.133TT-6.34174.6652318.780587509400.0881533690147468815155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 13:56:20FORECAST20214112125.6621.3923.52501.2931.6635.477.133TT-6.34174.6652318.780587509400.0881533690147468815155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 13:54:44FORECAST20214112125.6621.3923.52501.2931.6635.477.133TT-6.34174.6652318.780587509400.0881533690147468815155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 13:53:55FORECAST20214112125.6621.3923.52501.2931.6635.477.133TT-6.34174.6652318.780587509400.0881533690147468815155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 13:49:33FORECAST20214112125.6621.3923.52501.2931.6635.477.133TT-6.34174.6652318.780587509400.0881533690147468815155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 13:49:03FORECAST20214112125.6621.3923.52501.2931.6635.477.133TT-6.34174.6652318.780587509400.0881533690147468815155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20214112127.2321.7124.4701.3821.7525.477.222TT-4.77176.2352318.780587509400.118758822338988815155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 07:00:03FORECAST20214112128.0521.9224.98501.46131.92135.477.3913TT-3.95177.0552318.780587509400.13742836793458815155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 02:58:03FORECAST20214112127.0721.9224.49501.45451.88455.477.3545TT-4.93176.0752318.780587509400.115334832925678815155287.5WETL
2020-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20214112127.2221.5124.36501.19251.57255.477.0425TT-4.78186.2252318.780587509400.118542748232598815155287.5WETL
2020-11-08 19:00:04FORECAST20214112126.1521.7923.9701.09391.47395.476.9439TT-5.85186.1552318.780587509400.0970008311045218815145270WETL
2020-11-08 14:57:59FORECAST20214112127.5922.2824.93501.2091.5695.477.039TT-4.41187.5952318.780587509400.126722848193768815155287.5WETL
2020-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20214112128.8122.4225.61501.10821.39825.476.8682TT-3.19188.8152318.780587509400.156431552869648815145270WETL
2020-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20214112126.8622.3524.60501.12111.38115.476.8511TT-5.14186.8652318.780587509400.110947823866868815145270WETL
2020-11-08 03:00:05FORECAST20214112127.1221.8324.47501.02181.30185.476.7718TT-4.88188.1252318.780587509400.116397231582148815145270WETL
2020-11-07 23:00:01FORECAST20214112129.0221.4325.22501.05071.34075.216.5507TT-2.98196.0252318.780587509400.161973128194838815145270WETL
2020-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20214112126.0521.6523.8501.06261.33265.216.5426TT-5.95194.0552318.780587509400.0951444105627228815145270WETL
2020-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20214112127.8821.7524.81500.9441.2645.216.474TT-4.12193.8852318.780587509400.13340240822288815145270WETL
2020-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20214112127.5222.1624.8400.85261.18265.216.3926TT-4.48192.5252318.780587509400.125145946331728815145270WETL
2020-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20214112126.8424.1125.47500.71411.09415.26.2941TT-5.16194.8452318.780587509400.110536313502878815145270WETL
2020-11-07 02:57:58FORECAST20214112131.142126.0700.7281.0785.216.288TT-0.86200.1452318.780587509400.224899403635018815245280WETL
2020-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20214112126.3722.1924.2800.83191.21194.745.9519TF-5.63204.3752318.780587509400.101177964227868815245280WETL
2020-11-06 18:57:58FORECAST20214112126.3722.2124.2900.84281.26284.725.9828TF-5.63205.3752318.780587509400.101177964227868815245280WETL
2020-11-06 14:57:58FORECAST20214112130.0821.0725.57500.77851.09854.725.8185TF-1.92211.0852318.780587509400.191862622877398815245280WETL
2020-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20214112130.722.7626.7300.62720.90724.715.6172TF-1.3206.752318.780587509400.210811324792448815235260WETL
2020-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20214112130.722.7626.7300.62720.90724.845.7472TF-1.3207.752318.780587509400.210811324792448815235260WETL
2020-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20214112127.8723.2925.5800.59710.81714.975.7871TF-4.13204.8752318.780587509400.133168132695028815235260WETL
2020-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20214112130.6123.8327.2201.16291.39294.565.9529TF-1.39197.6152318.780587509400.207994657862638815145270WETL
2020-11-05 19:00:04FORECAST20214112126.9722.9424.95501.15081.45084.45.8508TF-5.03201.9752318.780587509400.11323068845418815245280WETL
2020-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20214112126.9722.9424.95501.15081.45084.465.9108TF-5.03201.9752318.780587509400.11323068845418815245280WETL
2020-11-05 10:59:39FORECAST20214112131.2125.2228.21500.63690.84694.45.2469TF-0.79201.2152318.780587509400.22718879872698815235260WETL
2020-11-05 07:00:04FORECAST20214112131.2125.2228.21500.63690.85694.365.2169TF-0.79209.2152318.780587509400.22718879872698815235260WETL
2020-11-05 02:58:14FORECAST20214112134.4223.7829.100.6260.8064.635.436TF2.42216.4252318.780587509400.344927011407278825235267.5WETL
2020-11-04 23:00:02FORECAST20214112135.6624.730.1800.44880.49884.54.9988TF3.66220.6652318.780587509400.395805939751758825235267.5WETL
2020-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20214112135.6624.730.1800.44880.49884.825.3188TF3.66220.6652318.780587509400.395805939751758825235267.5WETL
2020-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20214112133.3524.8229.08500.36420.42424.955.3742TF1.35220.3552318.780587509400.303134605468968825225245WETL
2020-11-04 11:00:03FORECAST20214112131.8625.428.6300.60450.64454.515.1545TF-0.14217.8652318.780587509400.249062626238258825235267.5WETL
2020-11-04 07:00:06FORECAST20214112131.8625.428.6300.60450.64454.715.3545TF-0.14207.8652318.780587509400.249062626238258825235267.5WETL
2020-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20214112128.4926.1927.3400.72760.86765.085.9476TF-3.51207.4952318.780587509400.148229518261938815235260WETL
2020-11-03 23:00:03FORECAST20214112129.7525.3927.5700.65580.78584.595.3758TF-2.25202.7552318.780587509400.182215612643588815235260WETL
2020-11-03 18:58:19FORECAST20214112129.7525.3927.5700.59730.72734.735.4573TF-2.25203.7552318.780587509400.182215612643588815235260WETL
2020-11-03 14:58:09FORECAST20214112131.9823.427.6900.47920.58925.125.7092TF-0.02200.9852318.780587509400.25321978916858825235267.5WETL
2020-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20214112132.7328.1130.4200.05160.10165.335.4316TF0.73195.7352318.780587509400.280004401623948825125240WETL
2020-11-03 07:00:04FORECAST20214112132.7331.5832.15500.0420.0925.325.412TF0.73195.7352318.780587509400.280004401623948825125240WETM
2020-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20214112131.4730.9731.2200.07990.09995.115.2099TF-0.53203.4752318.780587509400.235806084477078815225240WETL