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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 1, 2020

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DAY 32 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/02/2020 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 64.17°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 49.96°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 57.07°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.998 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 32 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 185 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.35 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 3.63 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 3.98 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 62 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.17 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 112 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 5 D₂: 1 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 55.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-02 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	32	112	64.16996	49.96004	57.065	0	0.35	3.63	3.98	T	F	32.16996	185.16996	61	328.16508187411	0.99764975578789	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-11-02 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	32	112	64.16996	49.96004	57.065	0	0.35	3.63	3.98	T	F	32.16996	185.16996	61	328.16508187411	0.99764975578789	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-11-01 10:58:26	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.13	46.91	53.02	0.0092	0.3592	3.63	3.9892	T	F	27.13	180.13	61	328.16508187411	0.987250789847	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-11-01 07:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.31	44.86	52.085	0.0088	0.3588	3.63	3.9888	T	F	27.31	180.31	61	328.16508187411	0.98793144761248	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-11-01 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.05	44.63	51.84	0.0063	0.3563	3.63	3.9863	T	F	27.05	180.05	61	328.16508187411	0.98693778429489	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-11-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.21	44.85	52.03	0.0073	0.3573	3.63	3.9873	T	F	27.21	175.21	62	329.18812954135	0.9875572944134	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-31 19:59:46	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.17	44.75	51.96	0.003	0.363	3.63	3.993	T	F	27.17	180.17	62	329.18812954135	0.98740484797412	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-31 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.4	44.1	51.75	0.0029	0.3629	3.63	3.9929	T	F	27.4	180.4	62	329.18812954135	0.9882598173085	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-31 11:58:25	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.51	43.84	51.675	0	0.36	3.63	3.99	T	F	27.51	180.51	62	329.18812954135	0.9886506184621	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.59	44.43	52.01	0	0.36	3.63	3.99	T	F	27.59	180.59	62	329.18812954135	0.98892769978744	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-31 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.56	44.24	51.9	0	0.36	3.63	3.99	T	F	27.56	180.56	62	329.18812954135	0.98882449060576	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.87	44.11	51.99	0	0.01	3.63	3.64	F	F	27.87	169.87	62	329.18812954135	0.98985172480113	88	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-10-30 19:59:42	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.79	43.66	51.725	0	0.04	3.63	3.67	F	F	27.79	168.79	62	329.18812954135	0.98959483421415	88	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-10-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.43	42.94	51.185	0	0.04	3.63	3.67	F	F	27.43	168.43	62	329.18812954135	0.98836753940341	88	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-10-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.24	43.19	51.215	0	0.04	3.63	3.67	F	F	27.24	168.24	62	329.18812954135	0.98767057967931	88	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-10-30 07:59:46	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.19	44.6	51.895	0	0.26	3.63	3.89	T	F	27.19	166.19	62	329.18812954135	0.98748127181113	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-30 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	58.64	42.9	50.77	0	0.45	3.63	4.08	T	F	26.64	176.64	62	329.18812954135	0.9852274843112	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	58.13	42.25	50.19	0	0.5	3.63	4.13	T	F	26.13	166.13	62	329.18812954135	0.98283472768533	88	5	5	1	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	58.93	43.39	51.16	0	0.65	3.64	4.29	T	F	26.93	174.93	62	329.18812954135	0.98645584752311	88	5	5	1	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	58.61	42.15	50.38	0	0.58	3.64	4.22	T	F	26.61	174.61	62	329.18812954135	0.98509511508628	88	5	5	1	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	32	112	53.07	41.81	47.44	0	0.48	3.64	4.12	T	F	21.07	169.07	62	329.18812954135	0.93601079297761	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	57.85	41.31	49.58	0	0.46	3.63	4.09	T	F	25.85	172.85	62	329.18812954135	0.98138576711918	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	57.11	39.76	48.435	0	0.45	3.64	4.09	T	F	25.11	172.11	62	329.18812954135	0.97704801280805	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-28 23:58:32	FORECAST	2021	32	112	57.45	40.09	48.77	0.0002	0.4802	3.65	4.1302	T	F	25.45	178.45	62	329.18812954135	0.97913647755956	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-28 19:59:44	FORECAST	2021	32	112	57.45	40.09	48.77	0.0002	0.4602	3.65	4.1102	T	F	25.45	178.45	62	329.18812954135	0.97913647755956	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	57.86	38.2	48.03	0.0002	0.5302	3.64	4.1702	T	F	25.86	178.86	62	329.18812954135	0.98143925071632	88	5	5	1	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	58.48	39.3	48.89	0.0005	0.5205	3.64	4.1605	T	F	26.48	175.48	62	329.18812954135	0.98450968766411	88	5	5	1	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	58.49	39.28	48.885	0.0005	0.3905	3.64	4.0305	T	F	26.49	180.49	62	329.18812954135	0.98455540971691	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-28 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	58.6	40.85	49.725	0.0005	0.3405	3.64	3.9805	T	F	26.6	177.6	62	329.18812954135	0.98505076637375	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.4	41.92	50.66	0.0002	0.4202	3.64	4.0602	T	F	27.4	175.4	62	329.18812954135	0.9882598173085	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.41	41.92	50.665	0.0002	0.4802	3.65	4.1302	T	F	27.41	184.41	62	329.18812954135	0.98829582034933	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.68	40.17	49.925	0.0004	0.5004	3.64	4.1404	T	F	27.68	186.68	62	329.18812954135	0.98923237494698	88	5	5	1	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.63	39.96	49.795	0.0003	0.3703	3.64	4.0103	T	F	27.63	185.63	62	329.18812954135	0.98906402343943	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.64	39.94	49.79	0.0003	0.2903	3.64	3.9303	T	F	27.64	189.64	62	329.18812954135	0.98909787557415	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.17	41.18	50.175	0	0.26	3.64	3.9	T	F	27.17	187.17	62	329.18812954135	0.98740484797412	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.33	40.94	50.135	0.0016	0.1816	3.64	3.8216	T	F	27.33	180.33	62	329.18812954135	0.98800509797043	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-26 20:00:45	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.34	40.94	50.14	0.0016	0.1916	3.63	3.8216	T	F	27.34	193.34	62	329.18812954135	0.98804177696328	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	59.14	40.94	50.04	0.0016	0.2016	3.63	3.8316	T	F	27.14	197.14	62	329.18812954135	0.98728945621386	88	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-26 11:58:41	FORECAST	2021	32	112	61.51	41.72	51.615	0.0028	0.2728	3.64	3.9128	T	F	29.51	204.51	62	329.18812954135	0.99402829062579	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	61.52	41.71	51.615	0.0028	0.2728	3.64	3.9128	T	F	29.52	208.52	62	329.18812954135	0.99404818899409	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-26 04:00:47	FORECAST	2021	32	112	61.97	41.11	51.54	0.0028	0.2728	3.64	3.9128	T	F	29.97	211.97	62	329.18812954135	0.99488493957931	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	61.99	41.08	51.535	0.0028	0.2728	3.64	3.9128	T	F	29.99	214.99	62	329.18812954135	0.99491956933999	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	61.98	43.4	52.69	0.0009	0.2209	3.64	3.8609	T	F	29.98	220.98	62	329.18812954135	0.99490228063415	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	32	112	61.98	43.39	52.685	0.0009	0.2209	3.64	3.8609	T	F	29.98	220.98	62	329.18812954135	0.99490228063415	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	32	112	51.7	41.83	46.765	0.0004	0.2104	3.64	3.8504	T	F	19.7	220.7	62	329.18812954135	0.91333804378285	88	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-25 07:58:45	FORECAST	2021	32	112	44.98	41.81	43.395	0	0.21	3.64	3.85	T	F	12.98	215.98	62	329.18812954135	0.71752908604922	88	4	5	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	32	112	44.98	43.88	44.43	0	0.21	3.64	3.85	T	F	12.98	215.98	62	329.18812954135	0.71752908604922	88	4	5	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H