Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 5, 2020

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DAY 36 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/06/2020 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.98°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.25°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.12°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.628 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 213 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.20 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.27 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.92 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 3 in SWE DAY: 57 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.03 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.97 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 116 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 125.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-06 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	36	116	43.98008	30.25004	37.11506	0	1.2	4.27	3.92	8.19	T	T	11.98008	212.98008	57	324.03379286289	0	0.62765125600609	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-06 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	36	116	43.98008	30.25004	37.11506	0	1.2	4.27	3.92	8.19	T	T	11.98008	212.98008	57	324.03379286289	0	0.62765125600609	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-05 10:59:38	FORECAST	2021	36	116	37.03	29.17	33.1	0	0.6967	3.7667	3.92	7.6867	T	T	5.03	206.03	57	324.03379286289	0	0.33221269949461	87	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-11-05 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	36	116	37.57	28.75	33.16	0	0.8096	3.8796	3.92	7.7996	T	T	5.57	206.57	57	324.03379286289	0	0.35390340709734	87	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-11-05 02:58:14	FORECAST	2021	36	116	43.7	29.44	36.57	0	1.0662	4.1362	3.92	8.0562	T	T	11.7	212.7	57	324.03379286289	0	0.61601602336297	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-04 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.86	29.7	36.28	0	1.4374	3.9274	3.92	7.8474	T	T	10.86	214.86	57	324.03379286289	0	0.58052837622341	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-04 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	36	116	43.06	31.19	37.125	0	1.6154	4.1054	3.92	8.0254	T	T	11.06	215.06	57	324.03379286289	0	0.58904916422392	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-04 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	36	116	43.22	31.8	37.51	0	1.8387	4.3287	3.92	8.2487	T	T	11.22	215.22	57	324.03379286289	0	0.59583587956153	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-04 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	43.96	31.32	37.64	0	1.3622	3.8522	3.92	7.7722	T	T	11.96	215.96	57	324.03379286289	0	0.62682080456066	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-04 07:00:05	FORECAST	2021	36	116	43.5	31.2	37.35	0	1.4001	3.9901	3.92	7.9101	T	T	11.5	213.5	57	324.03379286289	0	0.60764236966559	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-04 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	36	116	43.4	31.19	37.295	0	1.4019	4.3519	3.92	8.2719	T	T	11.4	213.4	57	324.03379286289	0	0.60343651332612	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-03 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	45.85	30	37.925	0	1.5107	3.9207	3.92	7.8407	T	T	13.85	210.85	57	324.03379286289	0	0.70193546668588	87	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-11-03 18:58:19	FORECAST	2021	36	116	46	30.5	38.25	0	1.6	4.03	3.92	7.95	T	T	14	212	57	324.03379286289	0	0.70759324846448	87	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-11-03 14:58:09	FORECAST	2021	36	116	43.24	30.73	36.985	0	1.9133	4.4933	3.92	8.4133	T	T	11.24	207.24	57	324.03379286289	0	0.59668223981	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-03 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.34	30.79	36.565	0	1.9245	4.7645	3.92	8.6845	T	T	10.34	205.34	57	324.03379286289	0	0.55820668003277	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-03 07:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.34	30.3	36.32	0	1.6492	4.6692	3.92	8.5892	T	T	10.34	205.34	57	324.03379286289	0	0.55820668003277	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-03 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.07	30.01	36.04	0	1.6463	4.4263	3.92	8.3463	T	T	10.07	211.07	57	324.03379286289	0	0.54653855016281	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-02 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	36	116	41.61	30.93	36.27	0	1.863	4.533	3.92	8.453	T	T	9.61	207.61	57	324.03379286289	0	0.52657210700591	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-02 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	36	116	41.4	28.73	35.065	0	1.5447	4.2447	3.92	8.1647	T	T	9.4	208.4	57	324.03379286289	0	0.51743168547405	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-02 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	36	116	40.17	28.96	34.565	0	1.6872	4.0772	3.92	7.9972	T	T	8.17	209.17	57	324.03379286289	0	0.46386727753785	87	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-11-02 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	40.17	29.87	35.02	0	1.7852	4.4252	3.92	8.3452	T	T	8.17	210.17	57	324.03379286289	0	0.46386727753785	87	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-11-02 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	36	116	39.84	29.54	34.69	0	1.5592	4.2792	3.93	8.2092	T	T	7.84	206.84	57	324.03379286289	0	0.44956709881492	87	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-11-02 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	36	116	41.88	30.34	36.11	0	1.0687	3.7487	3.93	7.6787	T	T	9.88	205.88	57	324.03379286289	0	0.538302882449	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-01 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.43	30.76	36.595	0	1.1513	3.8613	3.94	7.8013	T	T	10.43	201.43	57	324.03379286289	0	0.56208537023134	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-01 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.34	30.77	36.555	0	1.0072	4.3872	3.93	8.3172	T	T	10.34	198.34	57	324.03379286289	0	0.55820668003277	87	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-11-01 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	41.36	31.32	36.34	0	1.1721	3.9821	3.93	7.9121	T	T	9.36	196.36	57	324.03379286289	0	0.51568946584902	87	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-11-01 10:58:26	FORECAST	2021	36	116	43.89	33.28	38.585	0	2.3505	4.5105	3.93	8.4405	T	T	11.89	199.89	57	324.03379286289	0	0.62392121938789	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-01 07:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	43.9	33.3	38.6	0	2.3505	4.0005	3.93	7.9305	T	T	11.9	200.9	57	324.03379286289	0	0.62433587858163	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-01 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.87	32.93	37.9	0	1.5089	2.9789	3.93	6.9089	T	T	10.87	203.87	57	324.03379286289	0	0.58095534880883	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	40.87	31.81	36.34	0	0.8062	2.9262	3.93	6.8562	T	T	8.87	196.87	57	324.03379286289	0	0.49433308888085	87	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-31 19:59:46	FORECAST	2021	36	116	40.89	31.83	36.36	0	0.8062	2.8362	3.93	6.7662	T	T	8.89	200.89	57	324.03379286289	0	0.49520487555784	87	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-31 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	40.99	34	37.495	0	1.1008	2.7808	3.93	6.7108	T	T	8.99	196.99	57	324.03379286289	0	0.49956406918611	87	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-31 11:58:25	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.25	32.21	37.23	0	1.3452	3.0152	3.93	6.9452	T	T	10.25	205.25	57	324.03379286289	0	0.55432240099891	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.61	32.44	37.525	0	1.3452	2.9952	3.93	6.9252	T	T	10.61	207.61	57	324.03379286289	0	0.56982452011291	87	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-31 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.79	32.38	37.585	0	1.428	3.658	3.93	7.588	T	T	10.79	198.79	57	324.03379286289	0	0.57753694050384	87	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	44.61	29.81	37.21	0	1.5331	3.9731	3.58	7.5531	T	T	12.61	194.61	57	324.03379286289	0	0.65338389735112	87	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-30 19:59:42	FORECAST	2021	36	116	44.62	29.81	37.215	0	1.5331	3.9731	3.61	7.5831	T	T	12.62	195.62	57	324.03379286289	0	0.6537871189695	87	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	40.04	31.41	35.725	0	1.3991	4.2591	3.61	7.8691	T	T	8.04	187.04	57	324.03379286289	0	0.45822725903063	87	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.88	38.27	40.575	0	0.9226	2.3426	3.61	5.9526	T	T	10.88	192.88	57	324.03379286289	0	0.58138222608386	87	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-30 07:59:46	FORECAST	2021	36	116	42.88	38.28	40.58	0	0.9226	2.3426	3.83	6.1726	T	T	10.88	194.88	57	324.03379286289	0	0.58138222608386	87	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-30 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	48.48	40.38	44.43	0	1.4476	2.7976	4.02	6.8176	T	T	16.48	211.48	57	324.03379286289	0	0.79315425627533	87	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	40.12	29.87	34.995	0	0.4135	3.2635	4.07	7.3335	T	T	8.12	190.12	57	324.03379286289	0	0.461697117551	87	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	40.13	30.48	35.305	0	0.2107	3.0607	4.23	7.2907	T	T	8.13	199.13	57	324.03379286289	0	0.46213106041752	87	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	36	116	39.47	30.6	35.035	0	0.1153	2.9853	4.16	7.1453	T	T	7.47	198.47	57	324.03379286289	0	0.4336119744271	87	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	36	116	36.32	34.24	35.28	0	0.2292	1.9292	4.06	5.9892	T	T	4.32	182.32	57	324.03379286289	0	0.30453624358842	87	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	35.57	34.39	34.98	0	0.1645	1.8645	4.03	5.8945	T	T	3.57	185.57	57	324.03379286289	0	0.2764706232701	87	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	36	116	34.79	33.58	34.185	0	0.0086	1.5886	4.03	5.6186	T	F	2.79	186.79	57	324.03379286289	0	0.24869482186103	87	1	5	1	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M