MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 3, 2020

[ Monday, November 2, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 4, 2020 ]

DAY 34 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/04/2020 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.831
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 208

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.16 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.16 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 59
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 114

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 137.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-04 07:00:05OBSERVATION20213411450.1999838.4844.3399902.162.163.956.11TT18.19998208.1999859326.10728677984 00.8314806880703790 452552137.5WETH
2020-11-04 03:00:04OBSERVATION20213411450.1999838.4844.3399902.162.163.956.11TT18.19998208.1999859326.10728677984 00.8314806880703790 452552137.5WETH
2020-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20213411444.4939.8242.15501.43961.43963.955.3896TF12.49202.4959326.1072867798400.62789997590490352452100WETMH
2020-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20213411444.5739.6942.1301.47391.47393.955.4239TF12.57202.5759326.1072867798400.6312529780559490352452100WETMH
2020-11-03 03:00:04FORECAST20213411448.6240.7744.69501.67651.67653.955.6265TF16.62206.6259326.1072867798400.7836645835872290452552137.5WETMH
2020-11-02 23:00:02FORECAST20213411448.3539.8544.101.60831.60833.955.5583TF16.35206.3559326.1072867798400.7747736113946390452552137.5WETMH
2020-11-02 19:00:02FORECAST20213411448.0342.3645.19501.60581.60583.955.5558TF16.03206.0359326.1072867798400.7639735938210990452552137.5WETMH
2020-11-02 15:00:02FORECAST20213411448.6742.3245.49501.16381.16383.955.1138TF16.67206.6759326.1072867798400.7852885174418690452452110WETMH
2020-11-02 11:00:03FORECAST20213411449.5740.2444.90501.08631.08633.955.0363TF17.57207.5759326.1072867798400.8132906150620190452452110WETMH
2020-11-02 07:00:04FORECAST20213411449.1541.1645.15501.13051.14053.955.0905TF17.15206.1559326.1072867798400.8005148626587190452452110WETMH
2020-11-02 03:00:04FORECAST20213411448.3241.8245.0701.12521.13523.955.0852TF16.32199.3259326.1072867798400.7737731317660190452452110WETMH
2020-11-01 23:00:03FORECAST20213411447.840.6444.2201.00411.02413.954.9741TF15.8198.859326.1072867798400.7560384131608790451452100WETMH
2020-11-01 19:00:02FORECAST20213411445.0640.6442.8501.15051.16053.955.1105TF13.06196.0659326.1072867798400.651564252890569035145290WETMH
2020-11-01 15:00:03FORECAST20213411444.841.5543.17501.12761.13763.955.0876TF12.8195.859326.1072867798400.640836583933289035145290WETMH
2020-11-01 10:58:26FORECAST20213411445.2438.9842.1101.05511.06513.955.0151TF13.24196.2459326.1072867798400.658921360048069035145290WETMH
2020-11-01 07:00:03FORECAST20213411445.0142.0243.51500.87420.88423.954.8342TF13.01196.0159326.1072867798400.649510312498029035135267.5WETMH
2020-11-01 03:00:04FORECAST2021341144540.5242.7600.75880.76883.954.7188TF1319659326.1072867798400.649098997297229035135267.5WETMH
2020-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20213411444.8740.1242.49501.04441.05443.955.0044TF12.87190.8759326.1072867798400.643736159613299035145290WETMH
2020-10-31 19:59:46FORECAST20213411444.4540.3242.38501.03221.03223.964.9922TF12.45195.4559326.1072867798400.626219814109429035145290WETMH
2020-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20213411444.6440.0542.34500.86020.86023.964.8202TF12.64195.6459326.1072867798400.634178694609369035135267.5WETMH
2020-10-31 11:58:25FORECAST20213411446.2538.3842.31500.66290.66293.964.6229TF14.25198.2559326.1072867798400.699025538532019045135275WETMH
2020-10-31 08:00:03FORECAST20213411447.1541.8744.5100.6420.6423.964.602TF15.15199.1559326.1072867798400.732857194958879045235282.5WETMH
2020-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20213411444.0638.5541.30501.01641.01643.964.9764TF12.06196.0659326.1072867798400.609716989275679035145290WETMH
2020-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20213411444.7640.2242.4900.70230.70233.614.3123TF12.76185.7659326.1072867798400.639176022967769035135267.5WETMH
2020-10-30 19:59:42FORECAST20213411444.7440.2142.47500.70250.70253.644.3425TF12.74186.7459326.1072867798400.63834475569369035135267.5WETMH
2020-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20213411447.640.3543.97500.74920.74923.644.3892TF15.6187.659326.1072867798400.749023123150449045135275WETMH
2020-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20213411449.7641.0245.3900.68830.68833.644.3283TF17.76185.7659326.1072867798400.818900227416719045135275WETMH
2020-10-30 07:59:46FORECAST20213411449.7641.0245.3900.68830.68833.864.5483TF17.76187.7659326.1072867798400.818900227416719045135275WETMH
2020-10-30 04:00:03FORECAST20213411450.4339.9345.1800.73370.73374.054.7837TF18.43199.4359326.1072867798400.837828990032879045235282.5WETMH
2020-10-30 00:00:03FORECAST20213411450.6442.546.5701.36961.36964.15.4696TF18.64189.6459326.1072867798400.8434873113528990451452100WETMH
2020-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20213411450.6442.5146.57501.36961.36964.265.6296TF18.64198.6459326.1072867798400.8434873113528990451452100WETMH
2020-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20213411450.7340.7945.7601.23131.23134.195.4213TF18.73198.7359326.1072867798400.8458721317520890451452100WETMH
2020-10-29 12:00:04FORECAST20213411444.0440.5342.28500.67090.67094.094.7609TF12.04185.0459326.1072867798400.608865053043629035135267.5WETMH
2020-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20213411444.0540.5342.2900.67090.67094.064.7309TF12.05189.0559326.1072867798400.609291086717699035135267.5WETMH
2020-10-29 04:00:03FORECAST20213411448.2540.4744.3600.78960.78964.064.8496TF16.25192.2559326.1072867798400.771428958829859045135275WETMH
2020-10-28 23:58:32FORECAST20213411450.6740.7245.69501.21491.23494.15.3349TF18.67200.6759326.1072867798400.8442849295331990452452110WETMH
2020-10-28 19:59:45FORECAST20213411450.6640.7145.68501.21491.23494.085.3149TF18.66200.6659326.1072867798400.8440193543850190452452110WETMH
2020-10-28 16:00:03FORECAST20213411448.8342.4645.64501.1041.1044.145.244TF16.83199.8359326.1072867798400.7904373530414990452452110WETMH
2020-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20213411446.6941.8144.2501.62941.63944.135.7694TF14.69192.6959326.1072867798400.7158063037728490451552125WETMH
2020-10-28 08:00:02FORECAST20213411446.7141.8244.26501.62941.639445.6394TF14.71197.7159326.1072867798400.7165583280654890451552125WETMH
2020-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20213411444.2841.9643.1201.77971.78973.955.7397TF12.28193.2859326.1072867798400.6190526997602590351552112.5WETMH
2020-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20213411447.3541.9944.6700.62220.89224.034.9222TF15.35191.3559326.1072867798400.740106338119589045135275WETMH
2020-10-27 20:00:01FORECAST20213411447.3742.0144.6900.60650.87654.14.9765TF15.37200.3759326.1072867798400.74082563865169045235282.5WETMH
2020-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20213411446.2142.1444.17500.50320.77324.114.8832TF14.21203.2159326.1072867798400.69747813174129035235275WETMH
2020-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20213411446.6640.6943.67500.89010.94013.984.9201TF14.66204.6659326.1072867798400.71467648376759045235282.5WETMH
2020-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20213411446.6844.345.4900.70220.75223.94.6522TF14.68209.6859326.1072867798400.715429934601189045235282.5WETMH
2020-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20213411446.0445.0645.5500.32350.37353.874.2435TF14.04206.0459326.1072867798400.690862286942419035225250WETMH