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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 2, 2020

[ Sunday, November 1, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 3, 2020 ]

DAY 33 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/03/2020 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.981
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 202

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 60
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 327.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 113

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-03 07:00:03OBSERVATION20213311360.1899847.9400854.065030003.963.96TF28.18998202.1899860327.13813922996 00.9810171801625588 55215230DRYL
2020-11-03 03:00:04OBSERVATION20213311360.1899847.9400854.065030003.963.96TF28.18998202.1899860327.13813922996 00.9810171801625588 55215230DRYL
2020-11-02 11:00:03FORECAST20213311360.2347.6653.94500.00240.00243.963.9624TF28.23202.2360327.1381392299600.981215240300598855215230DRYL
2020-11-02 07:00:04FORECAST20213311358.7947.7553.2700.01050.01053.963.9705TF26.79200.7960327.1381392299600.972886913216938855215230DRYL
2020-11-02 03:00:04FORECAST20213311353.3944.749.04500.00630.00633.963.9663TF21.39195.3960327.1381392299600.910972996737648855115227.5DRYL
2020-11-01 23:00:03FORECAST20213311357.6442.950.2700.0080.0183.963.978TF25.64194.6460327.1381392299600.964206011969778855115227.5DRYL
2020-11-01 19:00:02FORECAST20213311357.8945.4851.68500.00360.01363.963.9736TF25.89194.8960327.1381392299600.966264687495788855115227.5DRYL
2020-11-01 15:00:03FORECAST20213311357.9245.0151.46500.00250.01253.963.9725TF25.92194.9260327.1381392299600.966505066333778855115227.5DRYL
2020-11-01 10:58:26FORECAST20213311357.9945.4251.70500.00040.01043.963.9704TF25.99194.9960327.1381392299600.967060485687678855115227.5DRYL
2020-11-01 07:00:03FORECAST20213311357.8745.2451.555000.013.963.97TF25.87194.8760327.1381392299600.96610365001238855115227.5DRYL
2020-11-01 03:00:04FORECAST20213311358.0245.4651.7400.00020.01023.963.9702TF26.02195.0260327.1381392299600.967296194436788855115227.5DRYL
2020-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20213311357.7645.0151.385000.013.963.97TF25.76189.7660327.1381392299600.965206637941328855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-31 19:59:46FORECAST20213311358.0244.7351.37500.00040.01043.963.9704TF26.02195.0260327.1381392299600.967296194436788855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20213311357.8944.6451.265000.013.963.97TF25.89194.8960327.1381392299600.966264687495788855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-31 11:58:25FORECAST20213311357.6845.0651.37000.013.963.97TF25.68195.6860327.1381392299600.964542134208278855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-31 08:00:03FORECAST20213311358.0345.1851.605000.013.963.97TF26.03196.0360327.1381392299600.967374455165858855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20213311358.1744.6251.395000.013.963.97TF26.17196.1760327.1381392299600.968454024447178855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20213311358.4544.551.475000.013.613.62FF26.45185.4560327.1381392299600.970524894476288855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-30 19:59:42FORECAST20213311359.5843.3951.4850003.653.65FF27.58185.5860327.1381392299600.977772193404918855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20213311359.0844.2151.6450003.653.65FF27.08184.0860327.1381392299600.974775070342838855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20213311354.7841.848.2900.00080.00083.653.6508FF22.78179.7860327.1381392299600.932601625050348855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-30 07:59:46FORECAST20213311359.1141.9750.5400.00140.00143.873.8714TF27.11182.1160327.1381392299600.974963966677348855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-30 04:00:03FORECAST20213311358.7641.0749.91500.00020.00024.064.0602TF26.76192.7660327.1381392299600.972685041737158855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-30 00:00:03FORECAST20213311359.6742.1250.89500.00270.00274.114.1127TF27.67182.6760327.1381392299600.978278511013978855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20213311359.6742.1250.89500.00270.00274.274.2727TF27.67191.6760327.1381392299600.978278511013978855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20213311359.5241.9950.75500.00270.00274.24.2027TF27.52191.5260327.1381392299600.977429158006348855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-29 12:00:04FORECAST20213311359.3441.9750.65500.00030.00034.14.1003TF27.34185.3460327.1381392299600.976373229487198855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20213311359.3441.9650.6500.00030.00034.074.0703TF27.34189.3460327.1381392299600.976373229487198855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-29 04:00:03FORECAST20213311358.8341.3250.07500.00070.00074.074.0707TF26.83187.8360327.1381392299600.973154142297798855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-28 23:58:32FORECAST20213311358.6143.1750.8900.02390.02394.114.1339TF26.61193.6160327.1381392299600.971656841112118855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-28 19:59:44FORECAST20213311358.6143.1750.8900.02390.02394.094.1139TF26.61193.6160327.1381392299600.971656841112118855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-28 16:00:03FORECAST20213311358.9843.9951.4850004.154.15TF26.98194.9860327.1381392299600.974136792246838855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20213311358.1641.9850.0700.01290.01294.144.1529TF26.16190.1660327.1381392299600.968377901402658855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-28 08:00:02FORECAST20213311358.1841.9850.0800.01290.01294.014.0229TF26.18195.1860327.1381392299600.968529996390618855115227.5WETMH
2020-10-28 04:00:03FORECAST20213311357.8441.8549.84500.00590.00593.963.9659TF25.84192.8460327.1381392299600.965860912128168855115227.5DRYL
2020-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20213311356.441.9449.1700.26760.26764.044.3076TF24.4188.460327.1381392299600.952428960478628855125255WETMH
2020-10-27 20:00:01FORECAST20213311356.4241.9549.18500.26760.26764.114.3776TF24.42197.4260327.1381392299600.952640882573238855125255WETMH
2020-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20213311356.5541.9749.2600.26580.26584.124.3858TF24.55200.5560327.1381392299600.954000055909688855225260WETMH
2020-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20213311359.4943.3851.43500.0480.0483.994.038TF27.49202.4960327.1381392299600.977255977270368855215230WETMH
2020-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20213311359.543.3851.4400.0480.0483.913.958TF27.5206.560327.1381392299600.977313827896568855215230DRYL
2020-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20213311360.3343.7352.0300.04820.04823.883.9282TF28.33204.3360327.1381392299600.981702486686768855215230DRYL
2020-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20213311364.243.3953.79500.00140.00143.83.8014TF32.2201.260327.1381392299600.99389319187498855215230DRYL
2020-10-26 20:00:45FORECAST20213311364.2243.453.8100.00140.00143.83.8014TF32.22214.2260327.1381392299600.993930208614348855215230DRYL
2020-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20213311361.6142.4652.03500.00140.01143.83.8114TF29.61215.6160327.1381392299600.987048922144188855215230DRYL
2020-10-26 11:58:41FORECAST20213311345.544.7545.12500.00410.00413.893.8941TF13.5207.560327.1381392299600.692937454262218835215225DRYL
2020-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20213311345.4944.7545.1200.00380.00383.893.8938TF13.49211.4960327.1381392299600.692562423171928835215225DRYL
2020-10-26 04:00:48FORECAST20213311344.8144.5644.68500.00020.00023.893.8902TF12.81213.8160327.1381392299600.666605427215248835215225DRYL