Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 8, 2020

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DAY 8 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/09/2020 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.52°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.26°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.89°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.527 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 486 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.98 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.98 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 86 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.61 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 88 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 3 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-09 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2021	8	88	50.52002	43.26008	46.89005	0	0	0	4.98	4.98	T	F	18.52002	485.52002	86	352.61036597531	0	0.5265258467638	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	46.78	46.78	46.78	0	0.0026	0.0026	4.98	4.9826	T	F	14.78	481.78	85	351.67649212947	0	0.40307599828084	89	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2020-10-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	56.27	45.02	50.645	0	0.0382	0.0382	4.98	5.0182	T	F	24.27	491.27	85	351.67649212947	0	0.70750812925314	89	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-08 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	8	88	49.12	44.83	46.975	0	0.0547	0.0547	4.98	5.0347	T	F	17.12	484.12	85	351.67649212947	0	0.47997045832359	89	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2020-10-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	50.97	45.33	48.15	0	0.0633	0.0633	4.98	5.0433	T	F	18.97	485.97	85	351.67649212947	0	0.54144295336458	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-08 00:00:16	FORECAST	2021	8	88	51.99	45.81	48.9	0	0.0547	0.0647	4.98	5.0447	T	F	19.99	472.99	86	352.61036597531	0	0.57500913040724	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	8	88	51.74	45.17	48.455	0	0.0467	0.0567	4.98	5.0367	T	F	19.74	488.74	86	352.61036597531	0	0.56682270970679	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	51.64	45.03	48.335	0	0.081	0.091	4.98	5.071	T	F	19.64	488.64	86	352.61036597531	0	0.56353989091994	89	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-07 11:59:41	FORECAST	2021	8	88	52.54	45.02	48.78	0	0.0587	0.0687	4.98	5.0487	T	F	20.54	489.54	86	352.61036597531	0	0.59290106730905	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	52.82	44.95	48.885	0	0.0565	0.0665	4.98	5.0465	T	F	20.82	488.82	86	352.61036597531	0	0.60193823501537	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	8	88	52.5	44.68	48.59	0	0.0626	0.0626	4.98	5.0426	T	F	20.5	484.5	86	352.61036597531	0	0.59160587546449	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-06 23:59:42	FORECAST	2021	8	88	53.89	45.34	49.615	0	0.017	0.027	4.98	5.007	T	F	21.89	493.89	86	352.61036597531	0	0.63593352326275	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	53.43	45.19	49.31	0	0.0137	0.0337	4.98	5.0137	T	F	21.43	493.43	86	352.61036597531	0	0.62143201370712	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	53.88	45.17	49.525	0	0.0094	0.0294	4.98	5.0094	T	F	21.88	493.88	86	352.61036597531	0	0.6356202472754	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	54.76	45.33	50.045	0	0.0021	0.0121	4.98	4.9921	T	F	22.76	494.76	86	352.61036597531	0	0.66282051118436	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	55.29	45.76	50.525	0	0.0008	0.0108	4.98	4.9908	T	F	23.29	492.29	86	352.61036597531	0	0.67881181350142	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	52.51	42.89	47.7	0	0.2446	0.2546	4.98	5.2346	T	F	20.51	489.51	86	352.61036597531	0	0.5919297678262	89	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	54.34	45.13	49.735	0	0.0601	0.0701	4.98	5.0501	T	F	22.34	480.34	86	352.61036597531	0	0.64993412033236	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-05 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	8	88	55.1	45.29	50.195	0	0.0789	0.0789	5	5.0789	T	F	23.1	493.1	86	352.61036597531	0	0.67311514179951	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	54.88	45.32	50.1	0	0.0333	0.0333	5	5.0333	T	F	22.88	492.88	86	352.61036597531	0	0.66646834186642	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-05 11:59:48	FORECAST	2021	8	88	51.15	47.78	49.465	0	0.0303	0.0303	5	5.0303	T	F	19.15	492.15	86	352.61036597531	0	0.5473949413325	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-05 08:00:00	FORECAST	2021	8	88	51.25	48.3	49.775	0	0.0298	0.0298	4.98	5.0098	T	F	19.25	492.25	86	352.61036597531	0	0.55069709244365	89	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-05 03:59:49	FORECAST	2021	8	88	59.36	45.76	52.56	0	0.0077	0.0077	4.98	4.9877	T	F	27.36	500.36	86	352.61036597531	0	0.7892688113392	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	61.57	47.3	54.435	0	0.0092	0.0092	4.98	4.9892	T	F	29.57	493.57	86	352.61036597531	0	0.83849830600212	89	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-04 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	8	88	61.57	47.73	54.65	0	0.0086	0.0086	4.98	4.9886	T	F	29.57	506.57	86	352.61036597531	0	0.83849830600212	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-04 15:59:50	FORECAST	2021	8	88	59.93	48.02	53.975	0	0.0045	0.0045	4.98	4.9845	T	F	27.93	499.93	86	352.61036597531	0	0.80273895375942	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-04 11:59:50	FORECAST	2021	8	88	61.4	48.71	55.055	0	0.0028	0.0028	4.98	4.9828	T	F	29.4	502.4	86	352.61036597531	0	0.83500056924501	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	61.4	48.71	55.055	0	0.0028	0.0028	4.99	4.9928	T	F	29.4	500.4	86	352.61036597531	0	0.83500056924501	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-04 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	8	88	62.85	49.07	55.96	0	0.0004	0.0004	4.98	4.9804	T	F	30.85	503.85	86	352.61036597531	0	0.86327554936062	89	5	4	4	1	5	2	32.5	WET	MH
2020-10-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	63.32	49.62	56.47	0	0.001	0.001	4.99	4.991	T	F	31.32	495.32	86	352.61036597531	0	0.87168602417338	89	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	63.32	49.62	56.47	0	0.001	0.001	4.99	4.991	T	F	31.32	515.32	86	352.61036597531	0	0.87168602417338	89	5	4	4	1	5	2	32.5	WET	MH
2020-10-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	63.62	50.18	56.9	0	0.0021	0.0021	4.99	4.9921	T	F	31.62	515.62	86	352.61036597531	0	0.87686328123263	89	5	4	4	1	5	2	32.5	WET	MH
2020-10-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	61.79	49	55.395	0	0.0023	0.0023	4.99	4.9923	T	F	29.79	509.79	86	352.61036597531	0	0.84295267287068	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	61.79	49	55.395	0	0.0023	0.0023	4.99	4.9923	T	F	29.79	508.79	86	352.61036597531	0	0.84295267287068	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-03 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	8	88	64.44	49.75	57.095	0	0.0023	0.0023	4.98	4.9823	T	F	32.44	513.44	86	352.61036597531	0	0.8902640008107	89	5	4	4	1	5	2	32.5	WET	MH
2020-10-03 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	60.27	45.08	52.675	0	0.0022	0.0022	4.98	4.9822	T	F	28.27	499.27	86	352.61036597531	0	0.81052031341417	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	60.27	45.08	52.675	0	0.0022	0.0022	5	5.0022	T	F	28.27	514.27	86	352.61036597531	0	0.81052031341417	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	60.27	45.57	52.92	0	0.0022	0.0022	4.99	4.9922	T	F	28.27	514.27	86	352.61036597531	0	0.81052031341417	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	8	88	59.31	47.01	53.16	0	0.0025	0.0025	4.99	4.9925	T	F	27.31	508.31	86	352.61036597531	0	0.78806207155977	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-02 10:04:01	FORECAST	2021	8	88	59.31	47.01	53.16	0	0.0025	0.0025	4.99	4.9925	T	F	27.31	508.31	86	352.61036597531	0	0.78806207155977	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-02 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	59.31	47.01	53.16	0	0.0025	0.0025	4.98	4.9825	T	F	27.31	509.31	86	352.61036597531	0	0.78806207155977	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	8	88	56.38	46.89	51.635	0	0.0057	0.0057	4.99	4.9957	T	F	24.38	507.38	86	352.61036597531	0	0.71065347302762	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-02 00:00:00	FORECAST	2021	8	88	57.25	45.2	51.225	0	0.0077	0.0077	5	5.0077	T	F	25.25	517.25	86	352.61036597531	0	0.73495352896023	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	57.25	47.28	52.265	0	0.0046	0.0046	4.99	4.9946	T	F	25.25	516.25	86	352.61036597531	0	0.73495352896023	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-01 15:59:59	FORECAST	2021	8	88	59.55	49.15	54.35	0	0	0	4.99	4.99	T	F	27.55	517.55	86	352.61036597531	0	0.79381758749354	89	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	54.47	48.42	51.445	0	0.0008	0.0008	4.99	4.9908	T	F	22.47	510.47	86	352.61036597531	0	0.6539420866202	89	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-01 11:14:30	FORECAST	2021	8	88	54.47	48.42	51.445	0	0.0008	0.0008	4.99	4.9908	T	F	22.47	510.47	86	352.61036597531	0	0.6539420866202	89	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	8	88	53.61	49.25	51.43	0	0.0005	0.0005	4.99	4.9905	T	F	21.61	509.61	86	352.61036597531	0	0.62712818720349	89	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-01 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	8	88	52.38	50.97	51.675	0	0	0	4.99	4.99	T	F	20.38	506.38	86	352.61036597531	0	0.5877143470397	89	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH