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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 31, 2020

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DAY 31 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/01/2020 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 50.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 26.56°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 38.56°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.842 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 154 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.35 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 3.67 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 4.02 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 63 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.21 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 111 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 5 D₂: 1 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 50.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-01 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2021	31	111	50.55008	26.56004	38.55506	0	0.35	3.67	4.02	T	F	18.55008	153.55008	63	330.20729700452	0.84216087949847	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	M
2020-11-01 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	31	111	50.55008	26.56004	38.55506	0	0.35	3.67	4.02	T	F	18.55008	153.55008	63	330.20729700452	0.84216087949847	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	M
2020-11-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	45.55	45.55	45.55	0	0.35	3.67	4.02	T	F	13.55	148.55	62	329.18812954135	0.68237843456947	91	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2020-10-31 11:58:25	FORECAST	2021	31	111	51.28	42.41	46.845	0.005	0.355	3.67	4.025	T	F	19.28	154.28	62	329.18812954135	0.86007341803939	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	51.27	32.46	41.865	0.0058	0.3558	3.67	4.0258	T	F	19.27	154.27	62	329.18812954135	0.85983771706441	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-31 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.74	33.63	42.185	0.0076	0.3576	3.67	4.0276	T	F	18.74	153.74	62	329.18812954135	0.84696005052056	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.94	34.11	42.525	0.0107	0.0107	3.67	3.6807	F	F	18.94	142.94	63	330.20729700452	0.85190856531642	91	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-10-30 19:59:42	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.72	33.69	42.205	0.0041	0.0441	3.67	3.7141	T	F	18.72	141.72	63	330.20729700452	0.84645925529885	91	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-10-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.51	31.34	40.925	0.0035	0.0435	3.67	3.7135	T	F	18.51	141.51	63	330.20729700452	0.84113561848791	91	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-10-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	51.13	33.01	42.07	0.0012	0.0412	3.67	3.7112	T	F	19.13	142.13	63	330.20729700452	0.8565096618501	91	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-10-30 07:59:46	FORECAST	2021	31	111	46.13	32.72	39.425	0.0004	0.2604	3.67	3.9304	T	F	14.13	140.13	63	330.20729700452	0.70392063526787	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-10-30 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.72	32.95	41.835	0.0003	0.4503	3.67	4.1203	T	F	18.72	150.72	63	330.20729700452	0.84645925529885	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.25	31.38	40.815	0.0007	0.5007	3.67	4.1707	T	F	18.25	141.25	63	330.20729700452	0.83437925595939	91	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	49.96	30.7	40.33	0.0005	0.6605	3.67	4.3305	T	F	17.96	148.96	63	330.20729700452	0.82662790387329	91	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.12	30.29	40.205	0.0006	0.5906	3.67	4.2606	T	F	18.12	149.12	63	330.20729700452	0.83093257661048	91	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	31	111	49.68	32.56	41.12	0.0005	0.4905	3.67	4.1605	T	F	17.68	148.68	63	330.20729700452	0.81892887689829	91	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	49.48	31.33	40.405	0.0015	0.4615	3.67	4.1315	T	F	17.48	148.48	63	330.20729700452	0.81330079603349	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	49.36	30.07	39.715	0.0014	0.4614	3.67	4.1314	T	F	17.36	148.36	63	330.20729700452	0.80987265585519	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	M
2020-10-28 23:58:32	FORECAST	2021	31	111	49.5	31.9	40.7	0.0028	0.4928	3.68	4.1728	T	F	17.5	153.5	63	330.20729700452	0.81386841812576	91	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-28 19:59:44	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.27	31.57	40.92	0.0012	0.4712	3.68	4.1512	T	F	18.27	154.27	63	330.20729700452	0.83490546293811	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.27	31.63	40.95	0.0014	0.5314	3.68	4.2114	T	F	18.27	154.27	63	330.20729700452	0.83490546293811	91	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	45.84	31.8	38.82	0.0011	0.5211	3.68	4.2011	T	F	13.84	149.84	63	330.20729700452	0.6932328849998	91	3	5	1	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2020-10-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	51.98	32.51	42.245	0.0004	0.3904	3.68	4.0704	T	F	19.98	154.98	63	330.20729700452	0.8759076535088	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-28 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	52.23	30.09	41.16	0.0007	0.3407	3.68	4.0207	T	F	20.23	152.23	63	330.20729700452	0.88124749936565	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	52.09	31.64	41.865	0.0008	0.4208	3.68	4.1008	T	F	20.09	149.09	63	330.20729700452	0.8782774699758	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	31	111	52.1	33.19	42.645	0.0008	0.4808	3.69	4.1708	T	F	20.1	158.1	63	330.20729700452	0.87849132502303	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	52.55	33.9	43.225	0.0008	0.5008	3.68	4.1808	T	F	20.55	159.55	63	330.20729700452	0.8878435196724	91	5	5	1	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	52.68	32.09	42.385	0.0006	0.3706	3.68	4.0506	T	F	20.68	158.68	63	330.20729700452	0.89044717087289	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	52.7	32.08	42.39	0.0006	0.2906	3.68	3.9706	T	F	20.7	162.7	63	330.20729700452	0.89084386089286	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	31	111	53.63	34.56	44.095	0.0008	0.2608	3.68	3.9408	T	F	21.63	160.63	63	330.20729700452	0.90816886038978	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	52.43	33.38	42.905	0.002	0.182	3.68	3.862	T	F	20.43	154.43	63	330.20729700452	0.88540128677759	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-26 20:00:45	FORECAST	2021	31	111	52.45	33.38	42.915	0.002	0.192	3.67	3.862	T	F	20.45	167.45	63	330.20729700452	0.88581092448471	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	51.61	34.35	42.98	0.0143	0.2043	3.67	3.8743	T	F	19.61	170.61	63	330.20729700452	0.86770106795387	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-26 11:58:41	FORECAST	2021	31	111	53.03	35.56	44.295	0.0035	0.2735	3.68	3.9535	T	F	21.03	176.03	63	330.20729700452	0.89724124096427	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	53.04	35.55	44.295	0.0035	0.2735	3.68	3.9535	T	F	21.04	180.04	63	330.20729700452	0.89743076844157	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-26 04:00:47	FORECAST	2021	31	111	53.39	35.11	44.25	0.0035	0.2735	3.68	3.9535	T	F	21.39	183.39	63	330.20729700452	0.90390550379686	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	53.39	35.09	44.24	0.0035	0.2735	3.68	3.9535	T	F	21.39	186.39	63	330.20729700452	0.90390550379686	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.78	36.44	43.61	0.0002	0.2202	3.68	3.9002	T	F	18.78	191.78	63	330.20729700452	0.84795839791311	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-10-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	50.79	36.44	43.615	0.0002	0.2202	3.68	3.9002	T	F	18.79	191.79	63	330.20729700452	0.84820730920493	91	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-10-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	55.88	39.52	47.7	0.0002	0.2102	3.68	3.8902	T	F	23.88	201.88	63	330.20729700452	0.94157573796666	91	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-25 07:58:45	FORECAST	2021	31	111	55.89	39.51	47.7	0.0002	0.2102	3.68	3.8902	T	F	23.89	203.89	63	330.20729700452	0.9416994121808	91	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	31	111	55.91	39.49	47.7	0.0002	0.2102	3.68	3.8902	T	F	23.91	203.91	63	330.20729700452	0.94194614568717	91	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-10-25 00:00:41	FORECAST	2021	31	111	47.56	35.8	41.68	1.0159	1.6459	3.64	5.2859	T	F	15.56	165.56	63	330.20729700452	0.75395252787585	91	4	5	1	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-10-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	47.57	35.79	41.68	0.9047	1.5347	3.65	5.1847	T	F	15.57	170.57	63	330.20729700452	0.75428573719556	91	4	5	1	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-10-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	47.59	35.78	41.685	0.4838	1.1138	3.65	4.7638	T	F	15.59	170.59	63	330.20729700452	0.75495142940807	91	4	5	1	4	5	2	100	WET	MH
2020-10-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	31	111	47.6	35.77	41.685	0.2936	0.5136	3.65	4.1636	T	F	15.6	190.6	63	330.20729700452	0.75528391191101	91	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	31	111	41.53	37.2	39.365	0	0.22	3.66	3.88	T	F	9.53	185.53	63	330.20729700452	0.51960413696486	91	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-10-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	31	111	41.52	39.5	40.51	0	0.22	3.69	3.91	T	F	9.52	188.52	63	330.20729700452	0.51918267422369	91	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	DRY	M