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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 30, 2020

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DAY 30 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/31/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 46.99°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 27.98°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 37.49°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.729 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 15 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 146 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.35 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.35 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 5.20 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 5.55 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 64 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 331.22 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 110 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 5 D₂: 1 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 50.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-31 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2021	30	110	46.99004	27.98006	37.48505	0.35000000000002	0.35000000000002	5.2	5.55	T	F	14.99004	145.99004	64	331.2225989804	0.72889283468311	89	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	M
2020-10-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	35.87	35.87	35.87	0.0028	0.0028	5.2	5.2028	T	F	3.87	134.87	63	330.20729700452	0.29643202209169	89	2	5	1	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2020-10-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	34.95	31.38	33.165	0.039	0.039	5.2	5.239	T	F	2.95	133.95	63	330.20729700452	0.26455724373766	89	2	5	1	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2020-10-30 07:59:46	FORECAST	2021	30	110	37.99	32.56	35.275	0.262	0.262	5.2	5.462	T	F	5.99	136.99	63	330.20729700452	0.37578980962398	89	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2020-10-30 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	43.83	32.6	38.215	0.4509	0.4509	5.2	5.6509	T	F	11.83	142.83	63	330.20729700452	0.61191674815016	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	42.91	31.92	37.415	0.4977	0.4977	5.2	5.6977	T	F	10.91	133.91	64	331.2225989804	0.57521207193525	89	3	5	1	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2020-10-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.11	31.66	36.385	0.651	0.661	5.2	5.861	T	F	9.11	142.11	64	331.2225989804	0.50177869564724	89	3	5	1	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2020-10-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	40.61	31.82	36.215	0.5815	0.5915	5.2	5.7915	T	F	8.61	141.61	64	331.2225989804	0.48126211707628	89	2	5	1	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2020-10-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.04	31.74	36.39	0.4766	0.4866	5.2	5.6866	T	F	9.04	142.04	64	331.2225989804	0.49890541581012	89	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2020-10-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.39	31.59	36.49	0.4613	0.4613	5.2	5.6613	T	F	9.39	142.39	64	331.2225989804	0.51326940229816	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.36	31.9	36.63	0.4511	0.4611	5.2	5.6611	T	F	9.36	142.36	64	331.2225989804	0.51203861353281	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-28 23:58:32	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.65	32.01	36.83	0.4762	0.4962	5.2	5.6962	T	F	9.65	146.65	64	331.2225989804	0.52392969155272	89	3	5	1	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2020-10-28 19:59:44	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.57	31.9	36.735	0.455	0.475	5.2	5.675	T	F	9.57	146.57	64	331.2225989804	0.52065107121116	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	42.21	32.74	37.475	0.5343	0.5443	5.2	5.7443	T	F	10.21	147.21	64	331.2225989804	0.54682234145767	89	3	5	1	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2020-10-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	42.31	33.23	37.77	0.5208	0.5308	5.2	5.7308	T	F	10.31	147.31	64	331.2225989804	0.55089619710502	89	3	5	1	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2020-10-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	42.09	32.44	37.265	0.3933	0.4033	5.2	5.6033	T	F	10.09	146.09	64	331.2225989804	0.54192723992719	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-28 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.97	32.46	37.215	0.3394	0.3494	5.2	5.5494	T	F	9.97	142.97	64	331.2225989804	0.53702577102585	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	42.46	32.6	37.53	0.4209	0.4309	5.2	5.6309	T	F	10.46	140.46	64	331.2225989804	0.55699680171657	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.92	32.7	37.31	0.476	0.486	5.21	5.696	T	F	9.92	148.92	64	331.2225989804	0.53498178883569	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.8	32.51	37.155	0.5042	0.5042	5.21	5.7142	T	F	9.8	149.8	64	331.2225989804	0.53007256638874	89	3	5	1	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2020-10-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.41	32.7	37.055	0.366	0.366	5.21	5.576	T	F	9.41	149.41	64	331.2225989804	0.51408985865452	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	43.6	32.7	38.15	0.2882	0.2882	5.21	5.4982	T	F	11.6	152.6	64	331.2225989804	0.60282015350923	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	30	110	44.94	33.64	39.29	0.2597	0.2597	5.21	5.4697	T	F	12.94	149.94	64	331.2225989804	0.65487915236037	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.62	34.4	38.01	0.1845	0.1845	5.21	5.3945	T	F	9.62	144.62	64	331.2225989804	0.52270038679866	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-26 20:00:45	FORECAST	2021	30	110	41.64	34.41	38.025	0.1858	0.1858	5.2	5.3858	T	F	9.64	157.64	64	331.2225989804	0.52351994802685	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2020-10-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	46.68	35.67	41.175	0.1925	0.1925	5.2	5.3925	T	F	14.68	161.68	64	331.2225989804	0.7182209317599	89	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-26 11:58:41	FORECAST	2021	30	110	50.46	35.33	42.895	0.2682	0.2782	5.2	5.4782	T	F	18.46	166.46	64	331.2225989804	0.83313125428749	89	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	50.47	35.34	42.905	0.2682	0.2782	5.2	5.4782	T	F	18.47	170.47	64	331.2225989804	0.83338856945067	89	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-26 04:00:47	FORECAST	2021	30	110	50.08	34.83	42.455	0.2682	0.2782	5.2	5.4782	T	F	18.08	173.08	64	331.2225989804	0.82316412056274	89	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	50.08	34.83	42.455	0.2682	0.2782	5.2	5.4782	T	F	18.08	176.08	64	331.2225989804	0.82316412056274	89	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	52.79	35.49	44.14	0.2154	0.2254	5.2	5.4254	T	F	20.79	183.79	64	331.2225989804	0.88620469424329	89	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	52.79	35.48	44.135	0.2154	0.2254	5.2	5.4254	T	F	20.79	183.79	64	331.2225989804	0.88620469424329	89	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	55.22	39.84	47.53	0.2131	0.2231	5.2	5.4231	T	F	23.22	189.22	64	331.2225989804	0.92745519766766	89	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-25 07:58:45	FORECAST	2021	30	110	55.22	39.84	47.53	0.2131	0.2231	5.2	5.4231	T	F	23.22	191.22	64	331.2225989804	0.92745519766766	89	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	30	110	55.22	39.84	47.53	0.2131	0.2231	5.2	5.4231	T	F	23.22	191.22	64	331.2225989804	0.92745519766766	89	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-25 00:00:41	FORECAST	2021	30	110	48.16	34.97	41.565	0.6347	0.6447	5.16	5.8047	T	F	16.16	161.16	64	331.2225989804	0.76726384802966	89	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	48.17	34.99	41.58	0.6347	0.6447	5.17	5.8147	T	F	16.17	166.17	64	331.2225989804	0.76757829475209	89	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	48.17	35.02	41.595	0.6347	0.6447	5.17	5.8147	T	F	16.17	166.17	64	331.2225989804	0.76757829475209	89	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-10-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	51.89	37.98	44.935	0.2186	0.2286	5.17	5.3986	T	F	19.89	185.89	64	331.2225989804	0.86733306597103	89	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	51.9	37.99	44.945	0.2186	0.2286	5.18	5.4086	T	F	19.9	186.9	64	331.2225989804	0.86755391086148	89	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	30	110	51.91	38	44.955	0.2186	0.2286	5.21	5.4386	T	F	19.91	189.91	64	331.2225989804	0.8677745030325	89	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-23 23:58:51	FORECAST	2021	30	110	47.41	34.85	41.13	0.2309	0.5309	3.41	3.9409	T	F	15.41	177.41	64	331.2225989804	0.74301979113361	89	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-10-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	50.14	39.56	44.85	0.0104	0.2904	3.4	3.6904	T	F	18.14	183.14	64	331.2225989804	0.82476235522258	89	4	5	1	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-10-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	52.37	39.83	46.1	0.0102	0.2902	3.41	3.7002	T	F	20.37	180.37	64	331.2225989804	0.8776496099259	89	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-10-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	30	110	44.89	38.12	41.505	0.0471	0.1471	3.4	3.5471	F	F	12.89	159.89	64	331.2225989804	0.65298150241929	89	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-10-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	30	110	39.88	38.39	39.135	0.1983	0.2183	3.71	3.9283	T	F	7.88	158.88	64	331.2225989804	0.4514116904199	89	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-10-23 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	30	110	42.07	39.34	40.705	0.0245	0.0445	3.86	3.9045	T	F	10.07	165.07	64	331.2225989804	0.54111075067932	89	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L