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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 28, 2020

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DAY 28 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/29/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 51.13°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 37.31°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 44.22°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.759 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 129 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 7.96 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 7.96 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 66 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.24 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 108 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 5 D₂: 1 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-29 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2021	28	108	51.13004	37.31	44.22002	0	0	7.96	7.96	T	T	19.13004	129.13004	66	333.24166505862	0.75944316474452	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-28 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	28	108	54.11	42	48.055	0.0102	0.0102	7.96	7.9702	T	T	22.11	132.11	65	332.23405012998	0.83815112495855	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	53.3	38.9	46.1	0.0051	0.0051	7.96	7.9651	T	T	21.3	131.3	65	332.23405012998	0.81862002207327	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-28 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	48.5	38.93	43.715	0.0071	0.0071	7.96	7.9671	T	T	16.5	126.5	65	332.23405012998	0.67558033647161	90	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	51.8	36.83	44.315	0.0098	0.0098	7.96	7.9698	T	T	19.8	123.8	66	333.24166505862	0.77875196994125	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	28	108	51.38	37.43	44.405	0.0058	0.0158	7.96	7.9758	T	T	19.38	134.38	66	333.24166505862	0.7667523751745	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	51.92	36.88	44.4	0.0046	0.0146	7.96	7.9746	T	T	19.92	134.92	66	333.24166505862	0.78211454716334	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52	38.58	45.29	0.0042	0.0142	7.96	7.9742	T	T	20	135	66	333.24166505862	0.78433982645672	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.5	38.86	45.68	0.0015	0.0115	7.96	7.9715	T	T	20.5	135.5	66	333.24166505862	0.79794675270683	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	28	108	53.1	38.96	46.03	0.0014	0.0114	7.96	7.9714	T	T	21.1	131.1	66	333.24166505862	0.81357976128463	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.74	38.68	45.71	0.002	0.012	7.96	7.972	T	T	20.74	129.74	66	333.24166505862	0.80429171289609	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-26 20:00:45	FORECAST	2021	28	108	51.98	37.03	44.505	0.0009	0.0009	7.96	7.9609	T	T	19.98	142.98	66	333.24166505862	0.7837847430674	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.35	38.13	45.24	0.0002	0.0002	7.96	7.9602	T	T	20.35	143.35	66	333.24166505862	0.79391950251937	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-26 11:58:41	FORECAST	2021	28	108	51.94	39.17	45.555	0.0061	0.0061	7.96	7.9661	T	T	19.94	143.94	66	333.24166505862	0.78267210265081	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.3	38.46	45.38	0.0064	0.0064	7.96	7.9664	T	T	20.3	143.3	66	333.24166505862	0.79256660147298	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-26 04:00:47	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.56	38.33	45.445	0.0064	0.0064	7.96	7.9664	T	T	20.56	145.56	66	333.24166505862	0.79954440115554	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	53.65	38.19	45.92	0.0064	0.0064	7.96	7.9664	T	T	21.65	148.65	66	333.24166505862	0.82723337761954	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	51.25	37.53	44.39	0.0074	0.0074	7.96	7.9674	T	T	19.25	152.25	66	333.24166505862	0.76296642436399	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	51.25	37.53	44.39	0.0074	0.0074	7.96	7.9674	T	T	19.25	152.25	66	333.24166505862	0.76296642436399	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	54.76	40.11	47.435	0.0088	0.0088	7.96	7.9688	T	T	22.76	154.76	66	333.24166505862	0.85279655063132	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-25 07:58:45	FORECAST	2021	28	108	54.77	40.31	47.54	0.0126	0.0126	7.96	7.9726	T	T	22.77	156.77	66	333.24166505862	0.85301471591232	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	28	108	54.78	40.31	47.545	0.0129	0.0129	7.96	7.9729	T	T	22.78	156.78	66	333.24166505862	0.85323266485023	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-25 00:00:41	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.85	36.76	44.805	0.0122	0.0122	7.92	7.9322	T	T	20.85	137.85	66	333.24166505862	0.80715902867182	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.87	36.74	44.805	0.0122	0.0122	7.93	7.9422	T	T	20.87	142.87	66	333.24166505862	0.80767759410777	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.88	36.71	44.795	0.0122	0.0122	7.93	7.9422	T	T	20.88	142.88	66	333.24166505862	0.80793655741368	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	56.98	39.65	48.315	0.0149	0.0149	7.93	7.9449	T	T	24.98	152.98	66	333.24166505862	0.89599111732726	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	56.99	39.64	48.315	0.0149	0.0149	7.94	7.9549	T	T	24.99	153.99	66	333.24166505862	0.8961623435823	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	28	108	57	39.64	48.32	0.0149	0.0149	7.97	7.9849	T	T	25	157	66	333.24166505862	0.89633336594583	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-23 23:58:51	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.5	38.95	45.725	0.0264	0.0364	6.16	6.1964	T	F	20.5	154.5	66	333.24166505862	0.79794675270683	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	54.62	40.45	47.535	0.0136	0.0236	6.15	6.1736	T	F	22.62	157.62	66	333.24166505862	0.84971951068807	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	51.67	39.22	45.445	0.0136	0.0236	6.16	6.1836	T	F	19.67	153.67	66	333.24166505862	0.77507596739759	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	45.62	37.31	41.465	0.1013	0.1013	6.16	6.2613	T	F	13.62	142.62	66	333.24166505862	0.57243849547954	90	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2020-10-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	49.36	36.58	42.97	0.0153	0.0153	6.47	6.4853	T	F	17.36	146.36	66	333.24166505862	0.70430975923668	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-23 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	28	108	48.75	37.89	43.32	0.0153	0.0153	6.62	6.6353	T	F	16.75	147.75	66	333.24166505862	0.68405044946367	90	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2020-10-22 23:58:56	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.75	40.5	46.625	0.0112	0.0112	6.55	6.5612	T	F	20.75	157.75	66	333.24166505862	0.80455344012225	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.75	40.5	46.625	0.0112	0.0112	6.61	6.6212	T	F	20.75	151.75	66	333.24166505862	0.80455344012225	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.75	40.5	46.625	0.0112	0.0112	6.61	6.6212	T	F	20.75	151.75	66	333.24166505862	0.80455344012225	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	28	108	52.75	40.5	46.625	0.0112	0.0112	6.74	6.7512	T	T	20.75	158.75	66	333.24166505862	0.80455344012225	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-22 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	57.74	42.92	50.33	0	0	6.67	6.67	T	F	25.74	166.74	66	333.24166505862	0.90842980216168	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	28	108	57.7	43.25	50.475	0	0	6.77	6.77	T	T	25.7	169.7	66	333.24166505862	0.90780382903726	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	58.66	43.66	51.16	0.0011	0.0011	6.63	6.6311	T	F	26.66	165.66	66	333.24166505862	0.92197371769697	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	58.66	43.66	51.16	0.0011	0.0011	6.89	6.8911	T	T	26.66	173.66	66	333.24166505862	0.92197371769697	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-21 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	28	108	58.79	43.89	51.34	0.0007	0.0007	6.86	6.8607	T	T	26.79	176.79	66	333.24166505862	0.92375851262046	90	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	28	108	50.27	40.96	45.615	0.0002	0.0102	6.67	6.6802	T	F	18.27	163.27	66	333.24166505862	0.73337025002747	90	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	28	108	43.99	40.96	42.475	0	0.01	6.52	6.53	T	F	11.99	153.99	66	333.24166505862	0.51124732851689	90	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2020-10-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	28	108	42.21	41.58	41.895	0	0.01	6.59	6.6	T	F	10.21	148.21	66	333.24166505862	0.44417191082608	90	2	5	1	1	5	2	20	WET	MH