MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 27, 2020

[ Monday, October 26, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 28, 2020 ]

DAY 27 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/28/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.554
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 122

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.33 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 2 in
SWE DAY: 67
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 334.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 107

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-28 04:00:03OBSERVATION20212710744.9200434.2100439.5650400010.3310.33TT12.92004121.9200467334.24545831631 00.5537082861507187 35115222.5WETH
2020-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20212710738.6238.6238.6200.00160.001610.3310.3316TT6.62115.6266333.2416650586200.323008675897768725115220WETH
2020-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20212710750.3338.1644.24500.0120.01210.3310.342TT18.33127.3366333.2416650586200.740673015558658745115225WETH
2020-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20212710750.2534.8242.53500.01110.011110.3310.3411TT18.25127.2566333.2416650586200.738221984072838745115225WETH
2020-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20212710745.2235.4540.33500.00640.006410.3310.3364TT13.22122.2266333.2416650586200.564872135147578735115222.5WETH
2020-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20212710749.9432.2741.10500.00810.008110.3310.3381TT17.94120.9467334.2454583163100.728613418708578745115225WETH
2020-10-26 20:00:45FORECAST20212710749.8633.9541.90500.00320.003210.3310.3332TT17.86134.8667334.2454583163100.726105601704898745115225WETH
2020-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20212710750.0935.342.69500.00150.001510.3310.3315TT18.09135.0967334.2454583163100.733284564083858745115225WETH
2020-10-26 11:58:41FORECAST20212710750.7337.1943.9600010.3310.33TT18.73135.7367334.2454583163100.752748165428978745115225WETH
2020-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20212710750.1436.6843.4100010.3310.33TT18.14135.1467334.2454583163100.734832543486198745115225WETH
2020-10-26 04:00:47FORECAST20212710750.5736.7143.6400010.3310.33TT18.57136.5767334.2454583163100.747954418726048745115225WETH
2020-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20212710751.7137.0444.37500010.3310.33TT19.71138.7167334.2454583163100.781018308575898745115225WETH
2020-10-25 20:00:02FORECAST20212710751.6434.6943.16500.00040.000410.3310.3304TT19.64144.6467334.2454583163100.779062639569048745115225WETH
2020-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20212710751.6434.6643.1500.00040.000410.3310.3304TT19.64144.6467334.2454583163100.779062639569048745115225WETH
2020-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20212710751.1337.0644.09500010.3310.33TT19.13144.1367334.2454583163100.764516441598888745115225WETH
2020-10-25 07:58:45FORECAST20212710752.7136.2244.46500010.3310.33TT20.71145.7167334.2454583163100.807852672414748745115225WETH
2020-10-25 04:00:04FORECAST20212710752.6137.5545.0800010.3310.33TT20.61145.6167334.2454583163100.805263223137268745115225WETH
2020-10-25 00:00:41FORECAST20212710752.5637.5845.0700010.2910.29TT20.56128.5667334.2454583163100.803960592919398745115225WETH
2020-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20212710748.1435.9542.04500010.310.3TT16.14134.1467334.2454583163100.669598245102578735115222.5WETH
2020-10-24 16:00:03FORECAST20212710748.1435.9342.03500010.310.3TT16.14134.1467334.2454583163100.669598245102578735115222.5WETH
2020-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20212710754.3135.5444.92500010.310.3TT22.31140.3167334.2454583163100.846383553048798745115225WETH
2020-10-24 08:00:02FORECAST20212710754.3136.1245.21500010.3110.31TT22.31141.3167334.2454583163100.846383553048798745115225WETH
2020-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST20212710754.3136.1145.2100010.3410.34TT22.31144.3167334.2454583163100.846383553048798745115225WETH
2020-10-23 23:58:51FORECAST20212710751.8233.8142.81500.00690.00698.538.5369TT19.82145.8267334.2454583163100.784071334366248745115225WETH
2020-10-23 20:00:02FORECAST20212710751.3936.7544.0700.00680.00688.528.5268TT19.39147.3967334.2454583163100.77199720135758745115225WETH
2020-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20212710750.6336.4443.53500.00690.00698.538.5369TT18.63145.6367334.2454583163100.749757792124818745115225WETH
2020-10-23 12:00:02FORECAST20212710749.1435.3842.2600.00050.00058.538.5305TT17.14141.1467334.2454583163100.703034118389878745115225WETH
2020-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20212710750.3434.5742.45500.00050.00058.848.8405TT18.34141.3467334.2454583163100.740978559757598745115225WETH
2020-10-23 04:00:04FORECAST20212710750.2738.8444.55500.00050.00058.998.9905TT18.27143.2767334.2454583163100.738835852692338745115225WETH
2020-10-22 23:58:56FORECAST20212710749.4438.2743.85500.00370.00378.928.9237TT17.44149.4467334.2454583163100.712754873804968745115225WETH
2020-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20212710749.4438.2743.85500.00370.00378.988.9837TT17.44143.4467334.2454583163100.712754873804968745115225WETH
2020-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20212710749.4438.2743.85500.00370.00378.988.9837TT17.44143.4467334.2454583163100.712754873804968745115225WETH
2020-10-22 12:00:04FORECAST20212710749.4438.6444.0400.00340.00349.119.1134TT17.44150.4467334.2454583163100.712754873804968745115225WETH
2020-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20212710752.0138.6445.32500.00080.00089.049.0408TT20.01153.0167334.2454583163100.789286348706338745115225WETH
2020-10-22 04:00:04FORECAST20212710752.9838.6945.83500.0010.0019.149.141TT20.98155.9867334.2454583163100.814738494540878745115225WETH
2020-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20212710755.6540.6648.15500099TT23.65150.6567334.2454583163100.874429956984668755115227.5WETH
2020-10-21 20:00:03FORECAST20212710755.6540.6648.1550009.269.26TT23.65158.6567334.2454583163100.874429956984668755115227.5WETH
2020-10-21 16:00:05FORECAST20212710755.5938.9147.250009.239.23TT23.59161.5967334.2454583163100.873255859014998755115227.5WETH
2020-10-21 12:00:02FORECAST20212710751.9239.1245.5200.00080.01089.049.0508TT19.92156.9267334.2454583163100.786825327761438745115225WETH
2020-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20212710751.9239.1245.5200.00080.01088.898.9008TT19.92153.9267334.2454583163100.786825327761438745115225WETH
2020-10-21 04:00:04FORECAST20212710749.7738.2143.9900.00080.01088.968.9708TT17.77149.7767334.2454583163100.723270698076778745115225WETH
2020-10-21 00:00:02FORECAST20212710748.0537.954300.1670.1678.849.007TT16.05133.0567334.2454583163100.666516144809948735125245WETH
2020-10-20 20:00:03FORECAST20212710748.0537.954300.11730.11738.939.0473TT16.05141.0567334.2454583163100.666516144809948735125245WETH
2020-10-20 16:00:03FORECAST20212710747.5737.5942.5800.09340.09348.778.8634TT15.57138.5767334.2454583163100.649892362234728735125245WETH
2020-10-20 12:00:02FORECAST20212710740.7633.7837.2700.02050.02059.199.2105TT8.76133.7667334.2454583163100.398429320031558725115220WETH
2020-10-20 08:00:04FORECAST20212710735.2433.7834.5100.00160.00169.389.3816TT3.24128.2467334.2454583163100.21822244113068715115217.5WETH
2020-10-20 04:00:04FORECAST20212710736.1535.6735.910009.249.24TT4.15134.1567334.2454583163100.244361422977938715115217.5WETH