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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 26, 2020

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DAY 26 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/27/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 37.90°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 27.99°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 32.95°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.244 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 133 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.04 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 10.29 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 10.33 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 68 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.25 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 106 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 5 D₂: 1 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 17.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-27 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	26	106	37.90004	27.98996	32.945	0	0.04	10.29	10.33	T	T	5.90004	132.90004	68	335.24544439784	0.24419715334576	86	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	WET	H
2020-10-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	32.38	32.38	32.38	0.0019	0.0419	10.29	10.3319	T	T	0.38	127.38	67	334.24545831631	0.10199337639131	86	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	WET	H
2020-10-26 11:58:41	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.07	39.52	42.795	0.003	0.043	10.29	10.333	T	T	14.07	141.07	67	334.24545831631	0.56399040500407	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.36	31.11	38.735	0.0038	0.0438	10.29	10.3338	T	T	14.36	141.36	67	334.24545831631	0.57589596088516	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-26 04:00:47	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.83	30.61	38.72	0.0037	0.0437	10.29	10.3337	T	T	14.83	141.83	67	334.24545831631	0.5950403624112	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.85	29.16	38.005	0.0007	0.0407	10.29	10.3307	T	T	14.85	142.85	68	335.24544439784	0.59585033764937	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.83	29.59	38.21	0	0.04	10.29	10.33	T	T	14.83	148.83	68	335.24544439784	0.5950403624112	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.83	29.27	38.05	0	0.04	10.29	10.33	T	T	14.83	148.83	68	335.24544439784	0.5950403624112	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.91	28.57	37.74	0.0044	0.0444	10.29	10.3344	T	T	14.91	148.91	68	335.24544439784	0.59827778642259	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-25 07:58:45	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.92	28.61	37.765	0.0044	0.0444	10.29	10.3344	T	T	14.92	148.92	68	335.24544439784	0.59868199563903	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.92	28.76	37.84	0.0044	0.0444	10.29	10.3344	T	T	14.92	148.92	68	335.24544439784	0.59868199563903	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-25 00:00:41	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.82	28.28	37.55	0.0016	0.0016	10.29	10.2916	T	T	14.82	131.82	68	335.24544439784	0.59463522185497	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.81	28.37	37.59	0.0016	0.0116	10.29	10.3016	T	T	14.81	141.81	68	335.24544439784	0.59422997989631	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.81	28.36	37.585	0.0016	0.0116	10.29	10.3016	T	T	14.81	141.81	68	335.24544439784	0.59422997989631	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.81	28.09	37.45	0	0.01	10.29	10.3	T	T	14.81	141.81	68	335.24544439784	0.59422997989631	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	47.09	28.76	37.925	0	0.02	10.29	10.31	T	T	15.09	143.09	68	335.24544439784	0.60553706592616	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	26	106	47.09	28.74	37.915	0	0.05	10.29	10.34	T	T	15.09	146.09	68	335.24544439784	0.60553706592616	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-23 23:58:51	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.05	29.15	37.6	0	0.1	8.43	8.53	T	T	14.05	150.05	68	335.24544439784	0.56316706227514	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	48.16	28.13	38.145	0	0.09	8.43	8.52	T	T	16.16	152.16	68	335.24544439784	0.64785809815864	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.53	28.14	37.335	0	0.1	8.43	8.53	T	T	14.53	150.53	68	335.24544439784	0.58284373813582	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	47.21	27.53	37.37	0	0.1	8.43	8.53	T	T	15.21	148.21	68	335.24544439784	0.61035647691759	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	42	25.92	33.96	0	0.11	8.73	8.84	T	T	10	147	68	335.24544439784	0.39577216651119	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-23 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	26	106	47.21	30.11	38.66	0.0008	0.1008	8.89	8.9908	T	T	15.21	149.21	68	335.24544439784	0.61035647691759	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-22 23:58:56	FORECAST	2021	26	106	47.41	31.04	39.225	0.0025	0.1225	8.8	8.9225	T	T	15.41	156.41	68	335.24544439784	0.61835091841053	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	47.41	31.04	39.225	0.0025	0.1125	8.87	8.9825	T	T	15.41	150.41	68	335.24544439784	0.61835091841053	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	47.41	31.04	39.225	0.0025	0.1125	8.87	8.9825	T	T	15.41	150.41	68	335.24544439784	0.61835091841053	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.47	30.32	38.395	0	0.12	8.99	9.11	T	T	14.47	157.47	68	335.24544439784	0.58039441618636	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-22 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.47	30.32	38.395	0	0.11	8.93	9.04	T	T	14.47	157.47	68	335.24544439784	0.58039441618636	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.16	30.39	38.275	0	0.14	9	9.14	T	T	14.16	159.16	68	335.24544439784	0.56769196654638	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.61	31.15	38.88	0.0007	0.0807	8.92	9.0007	T	T	14.61	150.61	68	335.24544439784	0.58610449100676	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.61	31.15	38.88	0.0007	0.0707	9.19	9.2607	T	T	14.61	158.61	68	335.24544439784	0.58610449100676	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-21 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	26	106	46.61	30.88	38.745	0.0007	0.0807	9.15	9.2307	T	T	14.61	161.61	68	335.24544439784	0.58610449100676	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	43.91	28.51	36.21	0.011	0.081	8.97	9.051	T	T	11.91	160.91	68	335.24544439784	0.47421807585079	86	2	5	1	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2020-10-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	43.91	28.51	36.21	0.011	0.171	8.73	8.901	T	T	11.91	157.91	68	335.24544439784	0.47421807585079	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	26	106	42.61	28.87	35.74	0.0111	0.1611	8.81	8.9711	T	T	10.61	155.61	68	335.24544439784	0.42052606276107	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	42.82	26.13	34.475	0.0004	0.1104	8.73	8.8404	T	T	10.82	140.82	68	335.24544439784	0.42912649807414	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	42.82	26.13	34.475	0.0004	0.1304	8.8	8.9304	T	T	10.82	148.82	68	335.24544439784	0.42912649807414	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	41.71	25.45	33.58	0.0004	0.1104	8.66	8.7704	T	T	9.71	146.71	68	335.24544439784	0.38414325345536	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	43.17	26.79	34.98	0.0012	0.3712	8.82	9.1912	T	T	11.17	149.17	68	335.24544439784	0.44353361983589	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-20 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	26	106	43.17	26.79	34.98	0.0012	0.3712	9.01	9.3812	T	T	11.17	149.17	68	335.24544439784	0.44353361983589	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	26	106	43.82	28.87	36.345	0.0012	0.3212	8.92	9.2412	T	T	11.82	153.82	68	335.24544439784	0.47047430996185	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	41.63	25.04	33.335	0.0002	0.0802	8.53	8.6102	T	T	9.63	138.63	68	335.24544439784	0.38095305276831	86	2	5	1	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2020-10-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	41.63	25.04	33.335	0.0002	0.0802	8.61	8.6902	T	T	9.63	150.63	68	335.24544439784	0.38095305276831	86	2	5	1	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2020-10-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	26	106	40.85	24.9	32.875	0.0002	0.1302	8.54	8.6702	T	T	8.85	154.85	68	335.24544439784	0.35030172015091	86	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	26.15	23.04	24.595	0.0045	0.2445	8.22	8.4645	T	T	-5.85	135.15	68	335.24544439784	0.027203767695247	86	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-10-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	26	106	26.15	23.65	24.9	0.0004	0.2404	8.21	8.4504	T	T	-5.85	134.15	68	335.24544439784	0.027203767695247	86	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-10-19 04:00:33	FORECAST	2021	26	106	24.95	24.42	24.685	0.0002	0.2402	8.23	8.4702	T	T	-7.05	140.95	68	335.24544439784	0.020198323908962	86	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L