Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 22, 2020

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DAY 22 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/23/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.04°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.66°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.85°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.081 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 241 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.98 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 3 in SWE DAY: 72 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.02 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 102 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-23 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	22	102	32.03996	21.66008	26.85002	0	0	0.12	6.98	7.1	T	T	0.039960000000001	241.03996	72	339.20760493838	0	0.081297906670742	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	38.37	28.82	33.595	0	0.0073	0.1273	6.98	7.1073	T	T	6.37	247.37	71	338.22270370998	0	0.21501724507675	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	39.22	21.37	30.295	0	0.0063	0.1263	6.98	7.1063	T	T	7.22	248.22	71	338.22270370998	0	0.23957886625875	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-22 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	39.54	25.25	32.395	0	0.0111	0.1311	6.98	7.1111	T	T	7.54	248.54	71	338.22270370998	0	0.24920706251673	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	39.25	23.65	31.45	0	0.0075	0.1075	6.98	7.0875	T	T	7.25	241.25	72	339.20760493838	0	0.24047281162009	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	39.32	23.64	31.48	0	0.0063	0.2563	6.98	7.2363	T	T	7.32	252.32	72	339.20760493838	0	0.24256571879869	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-21 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	22	102	39.39	26.73	33.06	0	0.0088	0.2588	6.98	7.2388	T	T	7.39	252.39	72	339.20760493838	0	0.24466843578019	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	39.25	26.47	32.86	0	0.0029	0.2529	6.98	7.2329	T	T	7.25	252.25	72	339.20760493838	0	0.24047281162009	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	39.02	26.7	32.86	0	0.0007	0.2507	6.98	7.2307	T	T	7.02	250.02	72	339.20760493838	0	0.2336657693637	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	22	102	38.88	26.63	32.755	0	0.0023	0.2523	6.98	7.2323	T	T	6.88	252.88	72	339.20760493838	0	0.22957514114943	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	38.51	26.56	32.535	0	0.0006	0.1806	6.98	7.1606	T	T	6.51	247.51	72	339.20760493838	0	0.21895933518562	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	37.96	25.95	31.955	0	0.0003	0.2403	6.98	7.2203	T	T	5.96	256.96	72	339.20760493838	0	0.20371192138105	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	37.75	25.84	31.795	0	0.0075	0.2575	6.98	7.2375	T	T	5.75	256.75	72	339.20760493838	0	0.19806102534599	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	37.22	26.38	31.8	0	0.0253	0.3353	6.98	7.3153	T	T	5.22	257.22	72	339.20760493838	0	0.18422526963905	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	37.8	25.89	31.845	0	0.0151	0.3251	6.98	7.3051	T	T	5.8	256.8	72	339.20760493838	0	0.19939783737277	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	22	102	37.7	26.11	31.905	0	0.0249	0.3449	6.98	7.3249	T	T	5.7	253.7	72	339.20760493838	0	0.19672962830756	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	37.44	23.6	30.52	0	0.0282	0.2982	6.76	7.0582	T	T	5.44	248.44	72	339.20760493838	0	0.18989396773883	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	38.78	25.22	32	0	0.0338	0.3038	6.81	7.1138	T	T	6.78	259.78	72	339.20760493838	0	0.22667795710585	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	38.47	26.4	32.435	0	0.0266	0.2866	6.81	7.0966	T	T	6.47	259.47	72	339.20760493838	0	0.21782880996099	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	31.5	23.37	27.435	0	0.0677	0.4077	6.81	7.2177	T	T	-0.5	252.5	72	339.20760493838	0	0.073772295739985	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	31.87	26.71	29.29	0	0.0729	0.3829	6.83	7.2129	T	T	-0.13	250.87	72	339.20760493838	0	0.078869323686568	90	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 04:00:33	FORECAST	2021	22	102	39.88	24.21	32.045	0	0.0259	0.3159	6.87	7.1859	T	T	7.88	258.88	72	339.20760493838	0	0.2596578911877	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	41.51	25.49	33.5	0	0.0802	0.3802	6.89	7.2702	T	T	9.51	257.51	72	339.20760493838	0	0.31270862342278	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	41.51	25.22	33.365	0	0.0802	0.3202	7.14	7.4602	T	T	9.51	261.51	72	339.20760493838	0	0.31270862342278	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-18 15:59:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	41.51	27.43	34.47	0	0.0852	0.3352	7.13	7.4652	T	T	9.51	262.51	72	339.20760493838	0	0.31270862342278	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	22	102	43.36	28.37	35.865	0	0.0222	0.3322	7.17	7.5022	T	T	11.36	264.36	72	339.20760493838	0	0.37793750188705	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	43.36	28.37	35.865	0	0.0222	0.3222	7.44	7.7622	T	T	11.36	268.36	72	339.20760493838	0	0.37793750188705	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	42.99	28.47	35.73	0	0.0272	0.2972	7.89	8.1872	T	T	10.99	266.99	72	339.20760493838	0	0.36453660118874	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	22	102	43.42	28.46	35.94	0	0.0006	0.4306	7.95	8.3806	T	T	11.42	273.42	72	339.20760493838	0	0.38012501422575	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	43.42	28.46	35.94	0	0.0006	0.6706	7.84	8.5106	T	T	11.42	279.42	72	339.20760493838	0	0.38012501422575	90	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	42.3	28.14	35.22	0	0.0014	0.6714	7.74	8.4114	T	T	10.3	272.3	72	339.20760493838	0	0.33999354016857	90	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	47.28	32.7	39.99	0	0.0019	0.2619	8	8.2619	T	T	15.28	283.28	72	339.20760493838	0	0.52581002321492	90	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	47.28	32.7	39.99	0	0.0019	0.2819	8	8.2819	T	T	15.28	287.28	72	339.20760493838	0	0.52581002321492	90	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-17 03:59:15	FORECAST	2021	22	102	46.5	31.5	39	0	0.0023	0.5123	8.05	8.5623	T	T	14.5	289.5	72	339.20760493838	0	0.49600906919481	90	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	47.66	33.27	40.465	0	0.0008	0.5708	8.09	8.6608	T	T	15.66	295.66	72	339.20760493838	0	0.5402865689225	90	3	5	2	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	47.69	32.51	40.1	0	0.0008	0.5308	8.56	9.0908	T	T	15.69	296.69	72	339.20760493838	0	0.54142743543364	90	3	5	2	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	49.16	34.39	41.775	0	0.0008	0.4008	8.52	8.9208	T	T	17.16	296.16	72	339.20760493838	0	0.59673182529025	90	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	46.99	32.59	39.79	0	0.0066	0.2466	8.72	8.9666	T	T	14.99	292.99	72	339.20760493838	0	0.51473812998557	90	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	46.99	32.59	39.79	0	0.0066	0.2466	8.56	8.8066	T	T	14.99	290.99	72	339.20760493838	0	0.51473812998557	90	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	49.37	34.42	41.895	0	0.0066	0.2266	8.41	8.6366	T	T	17.37	300.37	72	339.20760493838	0	0.60450320257101	90	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	43.2	30.41	36.805	0	0.1122	0.3722	8.4	8.7722	T	T	11.2	289.2	72	339.20760493838	0	0.3721234054453	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	43.2	31.13	37.165	0	0.1122	0.3722	8.32	8.6922	T	T	11.2	299.2	72	339.20760493838	0	0.3721234054453	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	42.64	30.58	36.61	0	0.1115	0.3915	8.35	8.7415	T	T	10.64	293.64	72	339.20760493838	0	0.35201029242054	90	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	22	102	37.74	31.29	34.515	0	0	0.09	8.18	8.27	T	T	5.74	298.74	72	339.20760493838	0	0.19779431246567	90	1	5	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2020-10-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	22	102	34.13	31.33	32.73	0	0	0.09	7.96	8.05	T	T	2.13	295.13	72	339.20760493838	0	0.11589640225756	90	1	5	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2020-10-15 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	22	102	31.17	30.92	31.045	0	0.0003	0.0603	8.73	8.7903	T	T	-0.83	295.17	72	339.20760493838	0	0.069441530885767	90	1	5	2	1	5	2	20	WET	L