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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 18, 2020

[ Saturday, October 17, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, October 19, 2020 ]

DAY 18 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/19/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.64°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.366
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 368

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 76
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 98

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-19 04:00:33OBSERVATION2021189844.4500632.6400838.5450700.00999999999999090.0399999999999916.726.76TT12.45006368.4500676343.10999603722 00.3659173184844291 24215220WETH
2020-10-19 00:00:03FORECAST2021189841.2641.2641.2600.0060.0366.726.756TT9.26365.2675342.1399521059800.246953801652169114215217.5WETH
2020-10-18 12:00:03FORECAST2021189846.439.9943.19500.26060.29066.727.0106TT14.4370.475342.1399521059800.446699038468579124225240WETH
2020-10-18 08:00:02FORECAST2021189846.2738.342.28500.51990.54996.727.2699TT14.27370.2775342.1399521059800.441203706504149124235260WETH
2020-10-18 04:00:03FORECAST2021189845.6339.1542.3900.9570.9876.727.707TT13.63369.6375342.1399521059800.414334102838169124235260WETH
2020-10-18 00:00:04FORECAST2021189845.6437.7941.71501.06761.07766.727.7976TT13.64371.6476343.1099960372200.414751212271099124245280WETH
2020-10-17 20:00:03FORECAST2021189845.6538.6142.1300.89610.92616.727.6461TT13.65375.6576343.1099960372200.41516841782269124235260WETH
2020-10-17 16:00:02FORECAST2021189845.4538.6442.04500.80080.83086.727.5508TT13.45375.4576343.1099960372200.406843086650249124235260WETH
2020-10-17 12:00:03FORECAST2021189845.4739.0542.2601.04621.07626.727.7962TT13.47375.4776343.1099960372200.407673794473719124245280WETH
2020-10-17 08:00:03FORECAST2021189845.8539.1342.4901.05991.10996.727.8299TT13.85375.8576343.1099960372200.423532009877339124245280WETH
2020-10-17 03:59:15FORECAST2021189845.9939.3942.6901.0971.1576.727.877TT13.99375.9976343.1099960372200.429407325942689124245280WETH
2020-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST2021189847.2138.4242.81501.10521.18526.727.9052TT15.21379.2176343.1099960372200.481128793035899124245280WETH
2020-10-16 20:00:03FORECAST2021189847.0139.9543.4801.10181.66186.728.3818TT15.01379.0176343.1099960372200.4726044816675191242552100WETH
2020-10-16 16:00:03FORECAST2021189846.1639.9543.05501.12241.67246.728.3924TT14.16378.1676343.1099960372200.4365625916239691242552100WETH
2020-10-16 12:00:03FORECAST2021189846.1838.1942.18501.23631.80636.728.5263TT14.18377.1876343.1099960372200.437405800774191242552100WETH
2020-10-16 08:00:02FORECAST2021189845.5338.1641.84501.02161.69166.728.4116TT13.53373.5376343.1099960372200.4101683950138191242552100WETH
2020-10-16 04:00:03FORECAST2021189844.9337.9941.4600.91471.59476.728.3147TT12.93373.9376343.1099960372200.3854020873522591242552100WETH
2020-10-16 00:00:03FORECAST2021189845.1337.6541.3900.98091.65096.78.3509TT13.13373.1376343.1099960372200.3936111497618791242552100WETH
2020-10-15 20:00:02FORECAST2021189845.2136.9941.100.97051.58056.78.2805TT13.21383.2176343.1099960372200.3969082843468191242552100WETH
2020-10-15 16:00:03FORECAST2021189843.9836.440.1901.02921.61926.78.3192TT11.98381.9876343.1099960372200.3471626855387791242552100WETH
2020-10-15 12:00:04FORECAST2021189847.0839.3943.23500.87531.43536.78.1353TT15.08387.0876343.1099960372200.475586764348189124245280WETH
2020-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST2021189847.0838.342.6900.65551.20556.717.9155TT15.08387.0876343.1099960372200.475586764348189124245280WETH
2020-10-15 04:00:02FORECAST2021189848.539.6544.07501.19521.86526.718.5752TT16.5390.576343.1099960372200.5361476309707691342552112.5WETH
2020-10-15 00:00:02FORECAST2021189846.0439.8842.9601.17412.24416.678.9141TT14.04388.0476343.1099960372200.4315095188935591242552100WETH
2020-10-14 20:00:04FORECAST2021189846.0439.8842.9601.11322.67326.779.4432TT14.04398.0476343.1099960372200.4315095188935591242552100WETH
2020-10-14 15:59:19FORECAST2021189849.5342.0945.8100.86962.23966.779.0096TT17.53399.5376343.1099960372200.5796358765804991343552125WETH
2020-10-14 11:59:21FORECAST2021189851.6944.948.29500.10771.06776.777.8377TT19.69400.6976343.1099960372200.667174571139391343452100WETH
2020-10-14 08:00:02FORECAST2021189851.6944.948.29500.10770.89776.877.7677TT19.69396.6976343.1099960372200.66717457113939134235267.5WETH
2020-10-14 04:00:04FORECAST2021189852.6444.9548.79500.10730.75736.947.6973TT20.64402.6476343.1099960372200.703259088105259144335282.5WETH
2020-10-14 00:00:03FORECAST2021189854.9443.3649.1500.00650.33655.575.9065TF22.94394.9476343.1099960372200.782299174433219144225250WETMH
2020-10-13 20:00:26FORECAST2021189854.9443.3649.1500.00650.23656.416.6465TT22.94406.9476343.1099960372200.782299174433219144325255WETH
2020-10-13 16:00:04FORECAST2021189854.941.2948.09500.00650.13656.396.5265TF22.9406.976343.1099960372200.781036828111479144325255WETMH
2020-10-13 12:00:03FORECAST2021189851.4335.0143.2200.00090.18096.266.4409TF19.43400.4376343.1099960372200.657003576912919134325250WETMH
2020-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2021189851.4335.0143.2200.00090.19096.857.0409TT19.43399.4376343.1099960372200.657003576912919134325250WETH
2020-10-13 03:59:55FORECAST2021189849.7139.4244.56500.00090.17097.757.9209TT17.71401.7176343.1099960372200.587152193884599134325250WETH
2020-10-13 00:00:04FORECAST2021189847.2835.3641.3200.04820.23827.98.1382TT15.28403.2876343.1099960372200.484114542270319124325245WETH
2020-10-12 20:00:03FORECAST2021189847.2835.3641.3200.04820.23827.757.9882TT15.28410.2876343.1099960372200.484114542270319124325245WETH
2020-10-12 16:00:04FORECAST2021189852.6139.6146.1100.00070.17078.048.2107TT20.61405.6176343.1099960372200.702147308106079144325255WETH
2020-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST2021189857.2746.2551.7600.00270.00277.767.7627TT25.27430.2776343.1099960372200.848370458175729144315227.5WETH
2020-10-12 08:00:03FORECAST2021189857.2746.2551.7600.00270.00277.737.7327TT25.27433.2776343.1099960372200.848370458175729144315227.5WETH
2020-10-12 04:00:04FORECAST2021189857.9945.8351.9100.00270.00277.67.6027TT25.99439.9976343.1099960372200.865765592745299154315230WETH
2020-10-12 00:00:04FORECAST2021189866.852.5159.65500.00080.00085.455.4508TF34.8460.876343.1099960372200.97993801915969154315230WETMH
2020-10-11 20:00:03FORECAST2021189866.853.4960.14500.00080.00087.387.3808TT34.8452.876343.1099960372200.97993801915969154315230WETH
2020-10-11 15:59:26FORECAST2021189869.7655.8862.820007.077.07TT37.76454.7676343.1099960372200.991135324350259154315160WETH
2020-10-11 11:59:27FORECAST2021189862.0356.0359.0300.00030.00036.946.9403TT30.03448.0376343.1099960372200.938193765661879154315230WETH
2020-10-11 07:59:57FORECAST2021189857.0556.3556.70007.357.35TT25.05445.0576343.1099960372200.842769770175989144315227.5WETH
2020-10-11 04:00:10FORECAST2021189857.2656.6956.9750007.467.46TT25.26451.2676343.1099960372200.84811878678099144315227.5WETH