Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 12, 2020

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DAY 12 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/13/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.38°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.92°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.194 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 473 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.52 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 5.13 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.72 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.85 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 82 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 92 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 3 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-13 03:59:55	OBSERVATION	2021	12	92	39.45002	30.38	34.91501	0	0.51999999999998	5.13	1.72	6.85	T	T	7.45002	473.45002	82	348.85348356404	0	0.19389376747763	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	12	92	38.61	38.61	38.61	0	0.0006	4.6106	1.72	6.3306	T	T	6.61	472.61	81	347.90530640596	0	0.17167835717324	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	12	92	42.72	34.53	38.625	0	0.0238	4.6338	1.72	6.3538	T	T	10.72	476.72	81	347.90530640596	0	0.29560982229118	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	41.29	34.08	37.685	0	0.0279	4.6379	1.72	6.3579	T	T	9.29	475.29	81	347.90530640596	0	0.2482944250145	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	12	92	40.98	31.6	36.29	0	0.0827	4.6927	1.72	6.4127	T	T	8.98	474.98	81	347.90530640596	0	0.23859629456071	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	12	92	43.57	30.92	37.245	0	0.373	2.803	1.72	4.523	T	F	11.57	480.57	82	348.85348356404	0	0.32556398408142	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2020-10-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	40.92	31.48	36.2	0	0.385	4.775	1.72	6.495	T	T	8.92	468.92	82	348.85348356404	0	0.23674343815097	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-11 15:59:26	FORECAST	2021	12	92	40.13	33.61	36.87	0	0.3135	4.7035	1.72	6.4235	T	T	8.13	468.13	82	348.85348356404	0	0.213098216175	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-11 11:59:27	FORECAST	2021	12	92	38.64	34.02	36.33	0	0.4656	4.8556	1.72	6.5756	T	T	6.64	466.64	82	348.85348356404	0	0.17244268341503	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-11 07:59:57	FORECAST	2021	12	92	41.14	34.44	37.79	0	0.4414	4.9714	1.72	6.6914	T	T	9.14	475.14	82	348.85348356404	0	0.24357575669676	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-11 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	12	92	40.93	34.69	37.81	0	0.3791	5.1391	1.72	6.8591	T	T	8.93	474.93	82	348.85348356404	0	0.23705169783669	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	42.14	35.06	38.6	0	0.5062	3.4062	1.72	5.1262	T	T	10.14	468.14	82	348.85348356404	0	0.27592661715828	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-10 20:00:21	FORECAST	2021	12	92	43.93	35.8	39.865	0	0.3515	3.8315	1.72	5.5515	T	T	11.93	470.93	82	348.85348356404	0	0.33861352117387	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	43.61	35.84	39.725	0	0.2894	3.7594	1.72	5.4794	T	T	11.61	470.61	82	348.85348356404	0	0.3270037944203	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	43.3	34.88	39.09	0	0.3763	3.4263	1.72	5.1463	T	T	11.3	469.3	82	348.85348356404	0	0.31591407305117	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	12	92	41.33	34.43	37.88	0	0.367	4.027	1.72	5.747	T	T	9.33	470.33	82	348.85348356404	0	0.24956090528037	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-10 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	12	92	41.74	35.12	38.43	0	0.4052	4.5152	1.72	6.2352	T	T	9.74	475.74	82	348.85348356404	0	0.26273743183428	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	39.61	34	36.805	0	0.4327	5.0127	1.74	6.7527	T	T	7.61	463.61	82	348.85348356404	0	0.19831467805165	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	43.22	34.79	39.005	0	0.4438	4.7538	1.78	6.5338	T	T	11.22	479.22	82	348.85348356404	0	0.31307836455138	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	12	92	42.55	34.36	38.455	0	0.5707	4.7207	1.78	6.5007	T	T	10.55	476.55	82	348.85348356404	0	0.28977416190465	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	12	92	43.6	32.4	38	0	0.4457	4.3657	1.78	6.1457	T	T	11.6	476.6	82	348.85348356404	0	0.32664359944462	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 08:00:17	FORECAST	2021	12	92	40.42	32.4	36.41	0	0.2973	4.0973	1.8	5.8973	T	T	8.42	465.42	82	348.85348356404	0	0.22161421307689	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	12	92	40.55	36.13	38.34	0	0.3388	4.1388	1.85	5.9888	T	T	8.55	465.55	82	348.85348356404	0	0.22549386894734	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	46.42	39.2	42.81	0	1.3357	4.9057	1.85	6.7557	T	T	14.42	472.42	82	348.85348356404	0	0.43343662290767	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	46.42	39.2	42.81	0	1.3369	4.9369	1.88	6.8169	T	T	14.42	481.42	82	348.85348356404	0	0.43343662290767	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	12	92	46.71	38.04	42.375	0	1.6331	5.2831	1.86	7.1431	T	T	14.71	480.71	82	348.85348356404	0	0.44485305301887	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	47.34	39.41	43.375	0	1.3638	5.1338	1.9	7.0338	T	T	15.34	480.34	82	348.85348356404	0	0.46979978161413	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	12	92	47.34	39.41	43.375	0	1.3638	5.2638	1.98	7.2438	T	T	15.34	476.34	82	348.85348356404	0	0.46979978161413	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	43.41	37.82	40.615	0	1.4172	5.3272	1.96	7.2872	T	T	11.41	475.41	82	348.85348356404	0	0.31983088516336	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 00:00:16	FORECAST	2021	12	92	52.03	36.63	44.33	0	0.0044	2.8744	1.95	4.8244	T	F	20.03	466.03	82	348.85348356404	0	0.65265776646947	90	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-10-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	12	92	52.03	36.63	44.33	0	0.0044	2.9344	1.88	4.8144	T	F	20.03	481.03	82	348.85348356404	0	0.65265776646947	90	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-10-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	51.79	36.11	43.95	0	0.0009	2.9409	1.89	4.8309	T	F	19.79	485.79	82	348.85348356404	0	0.64376558019175	90	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-10-07 11:59:41	FORECAST	2021	12	92	46.35	36.32	41.335	0	0.0902	3.2502	2.01	5.2602	T	T	14.35	480.35	82	348.85348356404	0	0.43068886224645	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	46.35	36.32	41.335	0	0.0902	3.2202	1.98	5.2002	T	T	14.35	479.35	82	348.85348356404	0	0.43068886224645	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	12	92	47.36	37.04	42.2	0	0.093	2.793	2.05	4.843	T	F	15.36	479.36	82	348.85348356404	0	0.47059421253565	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-10-06 23:59:42	FORECAST	2021	12	92	41.76	35.77	38.765	0	0.902	4.552	2.06	6.612	T	T	9.76	484.76	82	348.85348356404	0	0.26338916093837	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	41.76	35.77	38.765	0	0.902	4.542	1.85	6.392	T	T	9.76	487.76	82	348.85348356404	0	0.26338916093837	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	43.07	38.54	40.805	0	0.5355	4.0255	1.84	5.8655	T	T	11.07	484.07	82	348.85348356404	0	0.30779117763008	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	12	92	46.71	37.91	42.31	0	0.4536	3.5736	1.81	5.3836	T	T	14.71	489.71	82	348.85348356404	0	0.44485305301887	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	46.71	37.91	42.31	0	0.4536	3.5736	1.81	5.3836	T	T	14.71	486.71	82	348.85348356404	0	0.44485305301887	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	44.66	37.54	41.1	0	0.5202	3.8402	2.14	5.9802	T	T	12.66	480.66	82	348.85348356404	0	0.36566341088632	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	45.24	38.09	41.665	0	0.6876	3.1476	2.09	5.2376	T	T	13.24	473.24	82	348.85348356404	0	0.38764972918854	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-05 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	12	92	45.24	38.09	41.665	0	0.5223	2.9823	2.12	5.1023	T	F	13.24	486.24	82	348.85348356404	0	0.38764972918854	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-10-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	12	92	46.72	38.21	42.465	0	0.5912	3.0312	1.82	4.8512	T	F	14.72	493.72	82	348.85348356404	0	0.44524759616556	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-10-05 11:59:48	FORECAST	2021	12	92	41.48	36.69	39.085	0	0.0329	1.8729	1.77	3.6429	T	F	9.48	499.48	82	348.85348356404	0	0.25434056429979	90	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-10-05 08:00:00	FORECAST	2021	12	92	40.27	36.9	38.585	0	0.013	1.853	1.75	3.603	T	F	8.27	498.27	82	348.85348356404	0	0.21718537199777	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-10-05 03:59:49	FORECAST	2021	12	92	43.19	41.33	42.26	0	0.0076	1.9676	1.73	3.6976	T	F	11.19	510.19	82	348.85348356404	0	0.31201780346041	90	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH