Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 31, 2020

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DAY 123 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.00°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.20°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.10°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.752 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 2 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 2.25 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.68 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.00 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.68 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 140 in SWE DAY: 31 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.67 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 48.81 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -162 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-01 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	123	-162	40.04006	32	36.02003	76.016908333333	2.25	4.68	11	15.68	T	T	8.04006	2.04006	31	348.67484001302	26.50518335141	0.75330215769028	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-01 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	124	-162	36.02	36.02	36.02	92.978024	0.0076	2.4376	11	13.4376	T	T	4.02	-1.98	31	359.18377316949	33.396197482163	0.60462101838654	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	44.22	38.15	41.185	93.390794666667	0.2271	2.6571	11	13.6571	T	T	12.22	6.22	31	359.43392105684	33.567819517654	0.86894465722708	89	5	1	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	43.89	37.92	40.905	93.254182666667	0.5283	2.9583	11	13.9583	T	T	11.89	5.89	31	359.35116028584	33.510998742775	0.86146802111933	89	5	1	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	41.98	37.41	39.695	93.553134933333	0.8326	3.2626	11	14.2626	T	T	9.98	3.98	31	359.53223090968	33.635367311176	0.81258192017307	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-31 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	44.13	35.02	39.575	148.0242	1.3691	2.6091	11	13.6091	T	T	12.13	4.13	31	390.33216041171	57.778605779215	0.86693370415015	89	5	1	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	43.08	37.08	40.08	144.14064	1.3477	3.2577	11	14.2577	T	T	11.08	11.08	31	388.27452912517	55.966139123801	0.84190705619068	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-30 16:58:03	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	42.83	36.86	39.845	144.138836	1.552	3.462	11	14.462	T	T	10.83	10.83	31	388.27356858552	55.965300225483	0.83552121800223	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-30 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	42.84	36.87	39.855	84.147145333333	1.51	3.42	11	14.42	T	T	10.84	10.84	31	353.76876163069	29.768631399331	0.83577980992626	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	39.2	37.11	38.155	83.772077333333	1.3542	3.2642	11	14.2642	T	T	7.2	7.2	31	353.53607363965	29.616451301064	0.72482299061229	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-30 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	42.98	36.64	39.81	83.8043612504	1.3746	3.4046	11	14.4046	T	T	10.98	10.98	31	353.55611094092	29.629544043579	0.83937246361455	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-30 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	42.95	36.47	39.71	83.868845841238	1.2824	3.3424	11	14.3424	T	T	10.95	6.95	31	353.59612895944	29.655699229757	0.83860695225725	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-30 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	38.85	36.7	37.775	143.83113138305	1.0684	1.9584	11	12.9584	T	T	6.85	2.85	31	388.10966687077	55.822252486721	0.71249805525113	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-29 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	39.29	36.16	37.725	143.83834135879	0.9474	2.3874	11	13.3874	T	T	7.29	9.29	31	388.11350879695	55.825603364293	0.72794973677536	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-29 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	39.49	36.42	37.955	143.76935401333	0.9082	2.4582	11	13.4582	T	T	7.49	9.49	31	388.07674513866	55.793542956181	0.73483427752195	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	43.09	36.55	39.82	143.62469822648	0.8556	2.4156	11	13.4156	T	T	11.09	14.09	31	387.99963651768	55.726330706834	0.84215906745118	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-29 09:36:39	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	39.6	36.32	37.96	143.73191115619	0.9347	2.7547	11	13.7547	T	T	7.6	6.6	31	388.05678897903	55.776143917088	0.73858274877104	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-29 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	42.87	35.92	39.395	59.713385372327	1.1879	3.2479	11	14.2479	T	T	10.87	9.87	31	338.13751528687	20.191335759166	0.8365540068934	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-29 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	42.91	36.31	39.61	59.270285091617	1.2109	3.3809	11	14.3809	T	T	10.91	10.91	31	337.84499459749	20.024169146569	0.83758258519661	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-29 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	39.68	35.15	37.415	99.636869806338	0.9828	3.0428	9.91	12.9528	T	T	7.68	9.68	31	363.18733997622	36.186849708521	0.74129173871308	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	42.04	34.6	38.32	99.298507301275	1.5125	4.2225	10.12	14.3425	T	T	10.04	3.04	31	362.9855316399	36.043921463802	0.81426310772019	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-28 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	43.02	34.6	38.81	99.516500411888	1.6154	4.2454	10.12	14.3654	T	T	11.02	4.02	31	363.11556836439	36.135990608698	0.84038945987069	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	41.71	36.61	39.16	100.22939303462	1.6082	4.1382	10.12	14.2582	T	T	9.71	5.71	31	363.54031895704	36.437425512677	0.80490105763778	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	38.1	35.36	36.73	103.68726277699	2.9086	5.6686	10.44	16.1086	T	T	6.1	0.1	31	365.58968453983	37.906993689439	0.68524483280451	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-28 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	38.28	35.21	36.745	105.25715077129	3.0459	5.7659	10.76	16.5259	T	T	6.28	2.28	31	366.5141810777	38.578238417513	0.69188600314307	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-28 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	38.33	34.63	36.48	134.17380037628	2.8988	5.9088	9.76	15.6688	T	T	6.33	9.33	31	382.8999546501	51.375142079308	0.69371981105856	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	39.37	34.11	36.74	132.46048043861	3.1887	5.5287	10.86	16.3887	T	T	7.37	6.37	31	381.96227159478	50.594906004868	0.73071417430232	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-27 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	42.9	36.17	39.535	132.31195139132	3.538	5.948	11.07	17.018	T	T	10.9	12.9	31	381.88079074217	50.527392621957	0.83732583540176	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	42.9	36.18	39.54	132.93889320167	3.538	6.158	11.16	17.318	T	T	10.9	16.9	31	382.22451293666	50.812503704346	0.83732583540176	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-27 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	41.11	34.64	37.875	136.77611230029	2.2606	4.6306	11.34	15.9706	T	T	9.11	7.11	31	384.31639110248	52.565301868276	0.78716233786618	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-27 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	37.28	35.13	36.205	135.18849882932	2.3734	4.3934	11.33	15.7234	T	T	5.28	6.28	31	383.45336812015	51.838485207207	0.65425416030599	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-27 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	37.29	35.18	36.235	138.65900641618	2.3734	3.9234	10.93	14.8534	T	T	5.29	3.29	31	385.33542687874	53.43022742796	0.65463893052908	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	43.07	33.4	38.235	134.46499013881	2.0952	3.9852	10.6	14.5852	T	T	11.07	13.07	31	383.05891462057	51.50801317704	0.84165478165575	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-26 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	37.8	33.11	35.455	134.93113072778	1.9306	3.8706	10.92	14.7906	T	T	5.8	-0.2	31	383.31313531378	51.720874770697	0.67404286858913	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-26 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	37.8	33.16	35.48	140.23221612244	1.9306	3.7206	11.21	14.9306	T	T	5.8	3.8	31	386.18313003002	54.155316153209	0.67404286858913	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-26 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	34.93	29.48	32.205	140.93473285729	0.3487	2.5287	10.88	13.4087	T	T	2.93	1.93	31	386.56057916744	54.479811958124	0.56023510115574	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	32.8	28.74	30.77	136.84228183014	0.3006	2.4506	11.36	13.8106	T	T	0.8	8.8	31	384.35228521257	52.595643735117	0.4718030584708	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-26 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	32.85	28.74	30.795	131.98698812621	0.3006	2.5106	10.86	13.3706	T	T	0.85	11.85	31	381.70241343416	50.379751909682	0.47388006742952	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-25 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	35.31	27.95	31.63	135.78700737244	0.7104	3.0904	11.1	14.1904	T	T	3.31	15.31	31	383.77912472662	52.11221883864	0.57582538784498	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-25 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	33.51	28.2	30.855	134.14630401482	1.5393	4.2893	11.39	15.6793	T	T	1.51	6.51	31	382.88493835957	51.362599343879	0.50134162585453	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-25 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	33.56	28.2	30.88	134.17632297652	1.5393	4.2893	11.59	15.8793	T	T	1.56	12.56	31	382.90133223797	51.376292822503	0.50342342351334	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-25 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	37.82	29.32	33.57	138.07468528291	2.0712	4.9812	12.96	17.9412	T	T	5.82	17.82	31	385.01970947712	53.16147521377	0.67479471682289	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-25 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	39.39	29.27	34.33	138.29966614988	1.3908	4.2908	12.92	17.2108	T	T	7.39	14.39	31	385.14132546549	53.2649167324	0.73140307865519	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-25 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	39.39	29.27	34.33	147.50471413941	1.3908	4.2908	12.67	16.9608	T	T	7.39	20.39	31	390.05809510093	57.535407815626	0.73140307865519	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-24 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	35.9	27.82	31.86	150.88114807228	0.1718	5.5818	12.5	18.0818	T	T	3.9	17.9	31	391.83295522545	59.12020613697	0.59978950144172	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-24 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	32.49	27.82	30.155	150.54948495121	0.1568	5.5668	12.43	17.9968	T	T	0.49	14.49	31	391.6592861926	58.964103812656	0.45894488489604	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-24 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	31.53	28.51	30.02	139.21578364936	0.1685	5.5185	13.09	18.6085	T	T	-0.47	12.53	31	385.63582624599	53.686593754104	0.41945597528273	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-24 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	123	-162	28.38	24.49	26.435	135.21028555191	0.0981	5.2281	12.82	18.0481	T	T	-3.62	4.38	31	383.46523489857	51.848443909866	0.29734503735837	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L