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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 30, 2020

[ Wednesday, January 29, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, January 31, 2020 ]

DAY 122 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/31/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.638
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -17

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.29 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.52 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.74 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 145 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 359.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -163

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-31 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020122-16336.1099422.4900629.394.31792161.293.5210.2213.74TT4.10994-16.8900630359.08906518584 33.8685342976150.6383990309746389 31151212.5WETL
2020-01-31 00:00:12FORECAST2020123-16334.134.134.1148.988520.09692.326910.2212.5469TT2.1-18.930390.0516242344658.1132142182890.552364100360758931151212.5WETL
2020-01-30 12:00:11FORECAST2020122-16341.5936.2338.9184.5843146666670.77333.003310.2213.2233TT9.59-11.4130353.1112649174329.867674344120.831744254409828941151215WETL
2020-01-30 08:00:10FORECAST2020122-16342.1427.7334.93584.63272525040.88633.116310.2213.3363TT10.14-10.8630353.1413629954329.8873159489440.846614906872018941151215WETL
2020-01-30 04:00:11FORECAST2020122-16338.1427.5932.86584.7345471745710.91863.148610.2213.3686TT6.14-14.8630353.2046561706529.928636600570.718694086682868941151215WETL
2020-01-30 00:00:12FORECAST2020122-16340.6727.8534.26144.619206049710.88861.978610.2212.1986TT8.67-15.3330387.7320635214156.0735031864840.804874233947368941151215WETL
2020-01-29 20:00:10FORECAST2020122-16339.9126.1733.04144.577434692120.86842.528410.2212.7484TT7.91-9.0930387.7097636783656.0540830377060.780824727380928941151215WETL
2020-01-29 16:00:11FORECAST2020122-16340.2226.4333.325144.571204680.97662.636610.2212.8566TT8.22-8.7830387.7064375532356.0511867392610.790833485889648941151215WETL
2020-01-29 12:00:11FORECAST2020122-16340.9228.6234.77144.470883559810.99362.653610.2212.8736TT8.92-8.0830387.6528701203656.0045526607850.812421435739458941151215WETL
2020-01-29 09:36:39FORECAST2020122-16340.6926.8633.775144.549123156191.02582.905810.2213.1258TT8.69-12.3130387.6946480814656.0409214325210.80548470261638941151215WETL
2020-01-29 08:00:10FORECAST2020122-16340.6827.7334.20560.5271533723271.04793.147910.2213.3679TT8.68-12.3230337.6869489854820.4392297530780.805179613401898941151215WETL
2020-01-29 04:00:13FORECAST2020122-16341.2528.4334.8460.106302424951.06963.259610.2213.4796TT9.25-10.7530337.4086425536120.2803859101190.822103825902858941151215WETL
2020-01-29 00:00:12FORECAST2020122-16341.5327.3534.44100.397337806340.89412.064110.2212.2841TT9.53-9.4730362.7483902530636.4189726749420.830067815306278941151215WETL
2020-01-28 20:00:11FORECAST2020122-16336.928.5832.74100.001356634611.50362.923610.2213.1436TT4.9-18.130362.5117576220836.2516675582050.670633122990088931151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 16:00:11FORECAST2020122-16336.5629.4132.985100.243731078561.37432.844310.2213.0643TT4.56-18.4430362.6566253446436.3540532249040.656899296496828931151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 12:00:11FORECAST2020122-16338.7830.5934.685101.044473034621.42192.741910.2212.9619TT6.78-15.2230363.1345969798436.6927439924680.742101442641418941151215WETL
2020-01-28 08:00:11FORECAST2020122-16336.1331.4133.77104.279630776991.69143.291410.2213.5114TT4.13-16.8730365.0558303952538.0678872066050.639230931235358931151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 04:00:12FORECAST2020122-16335.6531.6133.63105.831970771291.68663.566610.2213.7866TT3.65-15.3530365.9721142054338.7315500936980.61915282608738931151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 00:00:12FORECAST2020122-16336.7232.134.41134.734516376281.83914.06919.0113.0791TT4.72-8.2830382.388554302851.5209369318110.663389468784098931151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 20:00:11FORECAST2020122-16335.6631.8933.775133.139112438611.35223.59229.9213.5122TT3.66-12.3430381.5134597811250.7943634186420.619574625335688931151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 16:00:10FORECAST2020122-16337.9131.3134.61133.113692724651.48233.87239.9213.7923TT5.91-9.0930381.4994881008250.7828056336660.710038762729118941151215WETL
2020-01-27 12:00:11FORECAST2020122-16337.9132.9735.44133.7434225351.70274.17279.9214.0927TT5.91-5.0930381.8453470114751.069303588380.710038762729118941151215WETL
2020-01-27 08:00:11FORECAST2020122-16336.8531.4634.155137.470597633631.2484.00810.0114.018TT4.85-13.1530383.8810903381952.7723629090380.668627261573348931151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 04:00:13FORECAST2020122-16335.6131.5933.6135.752002829320.74963.569610.0913.6596TT3.61-10.3930382.944806340251.9855244337670.61746421774088931151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 00:00:13FORECAST2020122-16335.6529.4732.56139.223549082840.54773.33779.4512.7877TT3.65-13.3530384.8318905349953.5776616005420.61915282608738931151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 20:00:11FORECAST2020122-16339.0631.7135.385134.866722068460.65372.84379.9612.8037TT7.06-8.9430382.4609114264951.5812494434050.75201525230378941151215WETL
2020-01-26 16:00:11FORECAST2020122-16335.6832.1933.935135.398169934580.6473.11710.0513.167TT3.68-17.3230382.7515316270251.8238569219570.620417797142438931151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 12:00:11FORECAST2020122-16335.6832.1933.935140.700619125270.6473.26710.0413.307TT3.68-13.3230385.6297728330654.2583477907490.620417797142438931151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 08:00:10FORECAST2020122-16338.6426.2632.45141.065659523960.62053.280510.0913.3705TT6.64-12.3630385.8264991256354.4268695609770.737068630518941151215WETL
2020-01-26 04:00:11FORECAST2020122-16337.5525.131.325136.836994666510.57743.397410.4213.8174TT5.55-3.4530383.5363813725452.4819657722880.696246406290678931151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 00:00:12FORECAST2020122-16337.5525.131.325131.983528156940.57743.50749.8713.3774TT5.55-0.4530380.8773924233950.2695420472540.696246406290678931151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 20:00:11FORECAST2020122-16340.2228.6734.445134.111709607451.14333.433310.3613.7933TT8.221.2230382.0473606545251.2370246883930.790833485889648941151215WETL
2020-01-25 16:00:10FORECAST2020122-16341.431.1536.275133.352924639241.47383.993810.4614.4538TT9.4-5.630381.6309437256350.8916024786460.826399026329948941151215WETL
2020-01-25 12:00:11FORECAST2020122-16341.431.1536.275133.365136370411.47383.943810.7114.6538TT9.40.430381.6376518113250.8971574779010.826399026329948941151215WETL
2020-01-25 08:00:11FORECAST2020122-16339.4327.2833.355138.319209282911.70155.111511.0716.1815TT7.431.4330384.3419056295453.1618684809640.764797685171048941151215WETL
2020-01-25 04:00:12FORECAST2020122-16339.6428.934.27138.506142149881.75414.934111.216.1341TT7.64-4.3630384.4432809688453.2477557224360.771887780791768941151215WETL
2020-01-25 00:00:12FORECAST2020122-16339.6428.934.27147.713759472741.75415.034110.8515.8841TT7.641.6430389.3775429834257.5164207283410.771887780791768941151215WETL
2020-01-24 16:00:10FORECAST2020122-16338.9626.9432.95149.805880329533.72927.209211.0118.2192TT6.962.9630390.4826896361758.496603074390.748498079125888941151215WETL
2020-01-24 12:00:11FORECAST2020122-16339.0226.9432.98149.352697300553.72927.209210.9418.1492TT7.023.0230390.2437972371958.2839637221820.750611535660378941151215WETL
2020-01-24 08:00:11FORECAST2020122-16340.3528.3234.335138.32720816013.22437.384311.3718.7543TT8.352.3530384.3462444768953.1655429653080.794949465874618941151215WETL
2020-01-24 04:00:11FORECAST2020122-16340.2324.632.415134.301386084053.08896.708911.5518.2589TT8.23-2.7730382.1513287146951.3234531402440.791151812921568941151215WETL
2020-01-24 00:00:13FORECAST2020122-16340.2824.632.44137.519822262973.08896.70899.2215.9289TT8.280.2830383.9078475692352.7949389630810.792739169674958941151215WETL
2020-01-23 20:00:11FORECAST2020122-16334.4232.3433.38142.884521589351.70136.451310.8617.3113TT2.421.4230386.8039998169555.2683044626920.566341598562758931151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 16:00:10FORECAST2020122-16334.3632.3333.345140.288612796981.49936.379310.6717.0493TT2.36-1.6430385.4075165988954.0682858651880.56372658697768931151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 12:00:11FORECAST2020122-16334.0732.1233.095139.767364977680.7735.65310.9916.643TT2.072.0730385.1259967194253.8280457458770.551050092625258931151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 08:00:10FORECAST2020122-16336.1132.8134.46144.245219591250.75573.155710.6613.8157TT4.114.1130387.5323247638555.899685284270.638401520188228931151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 04:00:12FORECAST2020122-16333.8733.1533.51136.384753907140.01672.746711.5614.3067TT1.870.8730383.2900022252.2749126278410.542276416168958931151212.5WETL