Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 28, 2020

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DAY 120 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/29/2020 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.49°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.82°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.15°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.497 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -35 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.09 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.13 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.85 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.98 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 145 in SWE DAY: 28 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.74 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 48.68 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -165 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-29 04:00:13	OBSERVATION	2020	120	-165	33.49004	28.81994	31.15499	60.588789583333	1.09	3.13	10.85	13.98	T	T	1.49004	-34.50996	28	335.74284125347	20.342252362817	0.49690993427032	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-29 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	121	-165	31.42	31.42	31.42	101.01056545674	0.0029	2.0429	10.85	12.8929	T	T	-0.58	-36.58	28	361.32320832587	36.497461585641	0.42037249297793	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	31.45	29.37	30.41	100.54218822227	0.2096	2.2496	10.85	13.0996	T	T	-0.55	-36.55	28	361.04159059595	36.299911557765	0.42146746400144	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	32.46	30.24	31.35	101.46901355688	0.5278	2.5678	10.85	13.4178	T	T	0.46	-35.54	28	361.59853177237	36.691046322557	0.45863293367073	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	33.3	28.01	30.655	102.90953354158	0.8479	2.8879	10.85	13.7379	T	T	1.3	-34.7	28	362.46156028106	37.300750095279	0.4898352626488	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.7	29.15	32.425	131.44347095304	1.0587	1.8887	10.85	12.7387	T	T	3.7	-29.3	28	378.9215603699	49.80676511396	0.57867610630286	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.18	27.47	31.325	130.19637741503	1.2478	2.9878	10.85	13.8378	T	T	3.18	-30.82	28	378.2268206595	49.24376189107	0.55960847952039	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-27 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	31.89	28.91	30.4	131.4165838507	1.4647	3.2047	10.85	14.0547	T	T	-0.11	-34.11	28	378.90660511212	49.794611642303	0.43759249620715	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.62	29.24	32.43	133.23048574279	1.5463	3.2863	10.85	14.1363	T	T	3.62	-30.38	28	379.91325499167	50.616027502663	0.5757534445404	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-27 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	31.97	29.59	30.78	134.79722627517	1.6434	3.4734	10.85	14.3234	T	T	-0.030000000000001	-33.03	28	380.7790140151	51.327954913028	0.44053630855368	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-27 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.26	28.53	31.895	133.93219651573	1.5539	3.4639	10.85	14.3139	T	T	3.26	-32.74	28	380.30143661626	50.934606744103	0.56255212600961	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-27 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.37	28.53	31.95	138.09692867111	1.7913	3.0613	10.85	13.9113	T	T	3.37	-35.63	28	382.59115339569	52.83466322068	0.56659396117	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.88	28.93	32.405	134.43809354516	0.9512	2.7312	10.85	13.5812	T	T	3.88	-33.12	28	380.58086651285	51.164566133754	0.58523603395466	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-26 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	32.04	28.88	30.46	134.54080432375	1.182	3.052	10.85	13.902	T	T	0.039999999999999	-37.96	28	380.6375545022	51.211282738551	0.44311484857545	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-26 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	34.82	28.84	31.83	137.26792819393	1.4762	3.3362	10.85	14.1862	T	T	2.82	-33.18	28	382.13730825442	52.455196589688	0.54632358557195	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-26 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	33.1	28.38	30.74	137.04258412984	1.104	3.014	10.85	13.864	T	T	1.1	-33.9	28	382.0137759662	52.352155031607	0.48239330159655	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	32.99	29.61	31.3	136.15848875892	1.2457	3.4857	10.85	14.3357	T	T	0.99	-28.01	28	381.52843664188	51.948335351711	0.4783026705273	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-26 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	34.64	28.42	31.53	130.91154638059	1.2953	3.5553	10.28	13.8353	T	T	2.64	-25.36	28	378.62550118116	49.566449858751	0.53966069612127	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-25 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	36.06	29.09	32.575	133.1132922448	1.0453	3.7453	10.33	14.0753	T	T	4.06	-25.94	28	379.84835689491	50.562865340059	0.59177228193106	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-25 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	31.74	28.33	30.035	133.25024429463	1.2377	4.0377	10.33	14.3677	T	T	-0.26	-30.26	28	379.92419475725	50.624991764844	0.43208227260422	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-25 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.43	28.36	31.895	133.25491954244	1.1937	4.2437	10.33	14.5737	T	T	3.43	-23.57	28	379.92678323278	50.627112931701	0.56879569466165	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-25 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	36.41	28.34	32.375	138.29285290505	2.1999	5.4699	10.47	15.9399	T	T	4.41	-24.59	28	382.69827466008	52.924436204583	0.60440729398241	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-25 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	36.01	28.57	32.29	138.60348488954	2.027	5.137	10.76	15.897	T	T	4.01	-30.99	28	382.86800298209	53.066839466018	0.58995913398964	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-25 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	36.69	28.81	32.75	147.80630276833	2.1349	5.0849	10.57	15.6549	T	T	4.69	-25.31	28	387.83611831015	57.324622727443	0.61443758550273	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-24 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	32.4	29.21	30.805	147.13844017335	1.7989	4.7989	10.68	15.4789	T	T	0.4	-25.6	28	387.47946961622	57.013124758526	0.45641163761035	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-24 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	32.44	29.21	30.825	146.57237989456	1.7989	4.7389	10.67	15.4089	T	T	0.44	-25.56	28	387.17671082773	56.749411945768	0.45789235464469	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-24 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	33.72	27.16	30.44	137.12075621347	2.0339	5.2639	10.81	16.0739	T	T	1.72	-25.28	28	382.05663745177	52.387895043764	0.50547181004417	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-24 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	36.01	28.1	32.055	132.79965643269	1.5799	4.6599	11.14	15.7999	T	T	4.01	-29.99	28	379.67458012319	50.420653796585	0.58995913398964	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-24 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	36.04	28.1	32.07	135.83516493583	1.5799	4.5099	8.96	13.4699	T	T	4.04	-26.96	28	381.35067013124	51.800831175666	0.59104725615024	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-23 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.17	27.59	31.38	138.32125415852	1.5154	4.7554	10.29	15.0454	T	T	3.17	-20.83	28	382.71379857695	52.937452602933	0.55924028854402	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-23 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	34.34	25.52	29.93	139.94167645249	1.5579	4.7279	10.17	14.8979	T	T	2.34	-23.66	28	383.59765740011	53.681299259819	0.52853201414447	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-23 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	34.76	25.51	30.135	139.32903983345	1.5579	4.6579	10.56	15.2179	T	T	2.76	-21.24	28	383.26392257051	53.39979433455	0.5441039767315	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-23 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	34.38	23.82	29.1	139.02305079271	0.494	2.704	11.12	13.824	T	T	2.38	-19.62	28	383.09703995721	53.259319244509	0.53001731782948	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-23 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.48	25.4	30.44	136.63020724047	0.5787	2.8987	11.91	14.8087	T	T	3.48	-21.52	28	381.78753021437	52.163709375016	0.57062884415096	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-23 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.5	25.4	30.45	134.8617049118	0.5787	2.7587	10.65	13.4087	T	T	3.5	-17.5	28	380.8145702529	51.35730219956	0.57136168005027	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-22 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	33.3	23.05	28.175	136.68607351376	0.7034	2.8434	11.65	14.4934	T	T	1.3	-18.7	28	381.81819447036	52.189229798265	0.4898352626488	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-22 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.03	25.4	30.215	134.50976534674	0.6637	2.9837	11.58	14.5637	T	T	3.03	-24.97	28	380.62042507269	51.197164062705	0.55408038017675	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	35.05	25.4	30.225	135.35686185277	0.6637	2.9837	11.89	14.8737	T	T	3.05	-23.95	28	381.08742667896	51.582798166813	0.554818091849	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	36.12	29.34	32.73	135.1056679881	1.1909	3.5309	11.82	15.3509	T	T	4.12	-23.88	28	380.94904908893	51.468375746592	0.59394546583458	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	36.84	28.56	32.7	133.71114828194	1.1064	3.0264	11.9	14.9264	T	T	4.84	-18.16	28	380.17922887554	50.834201245891	0.61978011683881	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-22 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	36.85	28.56	32.705	134.20064675903	1.1064	3.0264	10.83	13.8564	T	T	4.85	-26.15	28	380.44975858654	51.056603661631	0.62013548725857	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	30.25	26.03	28.14	141.40022902372	1.3101	3.2901	11.27	14.5601	T	T	-1.75	-39.75	28	384.39011949861	54.352850931559	0.3782287267411	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	31.46	28.62	30.04	134.99788960554	1.1857	3.3457	11.21	14.5557	T	T	-0.54	-40.54	28	380.88964909735	51.419298800738	0.42183258975739	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	32.3	29.91	31.105	135.13782491393	0.6713	2.1813	11.06	13.2413	T	T	0.3	-33.7	28	380.96676861338	51.4830204749	0.45271253652035	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-21 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	33.95	32.84	33.395	131.81854535811	0.6207	1.8207	11.04	12.8607	T	T	1.95	-23.05	28	379.13007937549	49.976375564782	0.51403265426623	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-21 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	120	-165	32.27	30.36	31.315	138.33586360349	0.3264	1.9764	11.53	13.5064	T	T	0.27	-35.73	28	382.72178355625	52.944148448123	0.45160359110406	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L