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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 2, 2020

[ Wednesday, January 1, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, January 3, 2020 ]

DAY 94 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/03/2020 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.479
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 619

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.47 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.83 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 54 in
SWE DAY: 2
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 303.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.31 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -191

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 5
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-03 04:00:12OBSERVATION202094-19131.4620.8099426.1349753.7630158333330.469999999999971.836.798.62TT-0.54619.462303.45812011061 16.3148237162610.4794303297178387 21551220WETL
2020-01-03 00:00:14FORECAST202095-19133.9933.9933.9951.9891213333330.01351.37356.798.1635TT1.99621.992302.1284624145315.7073932907230.610686545359048731541218WETL
2020-01-02 12:00:11FORECAST202094-19132.4922.9827.73552.3084498662440.6892.0496.798.839TT0.49620.492302.3682638101715.8164151686580.533416270543148731551222.5WETL
2020-01-02 08:00:11FORECAST202094-19132.4821.326.8953.0357959858770.88672.24676.799.0367TT0.48620.482302.9137425884816.0652714532410.532893479041448731551222.5WETL
2020-01-02 04:00:13FORECAST202094-19132.7625.3429.0552.9025493790050.93462.29466.799.0846TT0.76620.762302.8138886604316.0196266975070.547506917699618731551222.5WETL
2020-01-02 00:00:14FORECAST202094-19133.7624.0428.948.5210831892710.87391.72396.798.5139TT1.76617.762299.511556097214.532625129540.59904036787958731551222.5WETL
2020-01-01 20:00:12FORECAST202094-19132.4222.2527.33547.0823585680550.69311.96316.798.7531TT0.42621.422298.4191423216514.0502770623590.529755569749948731551222.5WETL
2020-01-01 16:00:12FORECAST202094-19133.7922.1727.9847.2427979624550.68921.95926.798.7492TT1.79622.792298.5411607174314.103919739250.600564676964258731551222.5WETL
2020-01-01 12:00:11FORECAST202094-19133.8523.0928.4748.273399580910.57251.84256.798.6325TT1.85622.852299.3237759823714.4493762420640.603608679672328731551222.5WETL
2020-01-01 08:00:11FORECAST202094-19133.8323.6628.74549.1591072356530.64712.34716.799.1371TT1.83624.832299.9947271485514.7474729620260.602594703519358731551222.5WETL
2020-01-01 04:00:13FORECAST202094-19133.7823.6428.7149.9226561079910.69522.78526.799.5752TT1.78626.782300.5719289482515.0053490445990.600056742965398731551222.5WETL
2020-01-01 00:00:13FORECAST202094-19134.5725.0129.7948.3539201466120.65422.53426.799.3242TT2.57282.572299.3848352153914.4764304151110.639595918991098731251215WETL
2019-12-31 20:00:12FORECAST202094-19131.9423.8527.89549.3535602276130.68854.89856.7911.6885TT-0.059999999999999275.942300.1418293898114.8130678536160.504602107665598731251215WETL
2019-12-31 16:00:11FORECAST202094-19131.9223.9927.95549.3649942946850.67964.77966.7911.5696TT-0.079999999999998273.922300.1504769149514.8169265804530.503552954333468731251215WETL
2019-12-31 12:00:11FORECAST202094-19131.8223.9127.86545.3072644571930.65864.73866.7911.5286TT-0.18272.822297.0658126739413.4592393360090.498306964192958721251212.5WETL
2019-12-31 08:00:10FORECAST202094-19130.1924.0127.145.5491019555210.47065.56066.7912.3506TT-1.81275.192297.2505485172213.5394955407450.413485919093628721251212.5WETL
2019-12-31 04:00:12FORECAST202094-19130.5923.4227.00545.648620371580.38545.43546.7912.2254TT-1.41277.592297.3265361121613.5725461733810.43408345506598721251212.5WETL
2019-12-31 00:00:16FORECAST202094-19129.5622.8826.2244.6975539929340.29314.97316.7811.7531TT-2.445.562296.5995604828713.2572748689640.381542726313738721151210WETL
2019-12-30 20:00:11FORECAST202094-19130.9724.9727.9744.6754989608150.75155.37156.8112.1815TT-1.0313.972296.5826812252813.2499792668750.453819221891238721151210WETL
2019-12-30 16:00:11FORECAST202094-19131.3823.3927.38544.6133181238040.69665.15666.8111.9666TT-0.6214.382296.5350876126813.2294141985350.475240290037148721151210WETL
2019-12-30 12:00:11FORECAST202094-19131.3824.9528.16544.4389508054260.59224.98226.8111.7922TT-0.6214.382296.4015856445913.171775483110.475240290037148721151210WETL
2019-12-29 20:02:14FORECAST202094-19131.8824.228.0444.6772925327871.27366.11366.8112.9236TT-0.129.882296.5840539252713.2505725377790.501454581202888731151212.5WETL
2019-12-29 04:02:15FORECAST202094-19138.8327.6533.2443.6276933.81617.86616.814.6661TT6.8324.832295.7796790432812.9041850329390.820604381577978741151215WETL
2019-12-29 04:00:12FORECAST202094-19138.526.1132.30543.7338556666673.79497.78496.7914.5749TT6.519.52295.8611357635312.9391482088580.809010055656628741151215WETL
2019-12-29 00:02:15FORECAST202094-19138.526.1132.30546.3671786666673.79497.78496.7714.5549TT6.516.52297.8746238637313.8116059049560.809010055656628741151215WETL
2019-12-29 00:00:12FORECAST202094-19138.526.1132.30546.103743.79497.64496.7714.4149TT6.520.52297.6737994379313.7238754540990.809010055656628741151215WETL
2019-12-28 20:02:12FORECAST202094-19135.9227.3431.6346.1391093333332.15715.56716.7712.3371TT3.9226.922297.7007699798513.7356483747180.703643674375748741151215WETL
2019-12-28 20:00:11FORECAST202094-19135.9327.3431.63546.1150013333332.15715.66716.7812.4471TT3.9324.932297.6823869213113.7276236697860.704098221739028741151215WETL
2019-12-28 16:02:14FORECAST202094-19137.2426.2531.74546.1763373333331.94565.33566.7712.1056TT5.2427.242297.7291552128113.7480419050750.760686030695368741151215WETL
2019-12-28 16:00:11FORECAST202094-19137.2426.2531.74546.1852481.94565.33566.7712.1056TT5.2427.242297.7359489306713.7510086398780.760686030695368741151215WETL
2019-12-28 12:02:13FORECAST202094-19137.2426.2631.7545.8592706666671.94565.06566.8611.9256TT5.2429.242297.487315453413.6425513192770.760686030695368741151215WETL
2019-12-28 12:00:11FORECAST202094-19143.4226.2634.8445.4998922.76235.97236.9512.9223TT11.4233.422297.2129670053713.5231578997440.936018623453298751151217.5WETL
2019-12-28 00:02:13FORECAST202094-19136.930.433.6545.7586293333333.58246.49246.8413.3324TT4.932.92297.4105114470213.6090973531410.746588585791658741151215WETL
2019-12-28 00:00:13FORECAST202094-19136.930.433.6545.5738013333333.58246.49246.8413.3324TT4.932.92297.2694095957313.5476970153930.746588585791658741151215WETL
2019-12-27 16:02:16FORECAST202094-19135.0727.2431.15552.66278589881.52044.25046.9711.2204TT3.0737.072302.6341267110815.9375562206560.663899695746378731151212.5WETL
2019-12-27 04:02:12FORECAST202094-19135.0628.6731.86547.6024200498630.19062.13067.199.3206TT3.0627.062298.8144822357114.2242925003670.663419865657628731151212.5WETL
2019-12-27 04:00:12FORECAST202094-19135.0628.6731.86547.9402718797230.19062.13067.239.3606TT3.0625.062299.0710304795714.3375465125390.663419865657628731151212.5WETL
2019-12-26 16:02:13FORECAST202094-19135.1931.1233.15547.6179338939861.33733.12737.3710.4973TT3.1925.192298.826267517414.229489452430.669636657522268731151212.5WETL
2019-12-26 08:02:14FORECAST202094-19131.1129.9730.5449.7037376620250.09572.11577.639.7457TT-0.8920.112300.4065528514714.9313284948830.461121802779678721151210WETL
2019-12-26 08:00:12FORECAST202094-19131.1229.9830.5549.8800644376270.09162.11167.749.8516TT-0.8816.122300.5397614123414.9909426653170.461643947309868721151210WETL
2019-12-26 00:02:14FORECAST202094-19127.2927.2927.2950.3113069118260.0122.0427.79.742TT-4.7114.292300.8652983775215.136926365790.274270660512948721151210WETL