Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 16, 2020

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DAY 108 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/17/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.29°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.61°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.45°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.120 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 534 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.35 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.80 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.85 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.65 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 137 in SWE DAY: 16 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.94 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 50.97 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -177 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 4 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-17 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	108	-177	24.29006	14.61002	19.45004	137.03548708333	0.34999999999997	0.79999999999997	14.85	15.65	T	T	-7.70994	534.29006	16	371.93738735303	50.968621040425	0.12026392961504	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-17 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-177	15.44	15.44	15.44	138.0314127338	0.0048	0.4548	14.85	15.3048	T	T	-16.56	525.44	16	372.50827156309	51.41784297888	0.010121601820973	88	1	1	4	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	24.58	20.05	22.315	138.25475420893	0.0542	0.5042	14.85	15.3542	T	T	-7.42	534.58	16	372.63609717835	51.518712024766	0.12794502441373	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	27.64	18.75	23.195	138.64863246872	0.1286	0.5786	14.85	15.4286	T	T	-4.36	537.64	16	372.86134992967	51.696716268189	0.22949196438668	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-16 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	23.46	19.58	21.52	139.88596823382	0.2857	0.7357	14.85	15.5857	T	T	-8.54	533.46	16	373.56749855535	52.256851236101	0.1000823759489	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-16 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	28.85	20.69	24.77	143.71607730252	0.3327	0.5627	14.85	15.4127	T	T	-3.15	538.85	16	375.73933070507	53.999782697205	0.27956011796621	88	2	1	4	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-01-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	29.07	18.63	23.85	142.18723191965	0.2336	0.7336	14.85	15.5836	T	T	-2.93	540.07	16	374.8749442131	53.302430633695	0.28920127436558	88	2	1	4	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-01-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	29.47	19.72	24.595	142.37484189891	0.27	0.77	14.85	15.62	T	T	-2.53	540.47	16	374.9811968791	53.387888620725	0.3071196436988	88	2	1	4	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-01-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	28.98	19.64	24.31	143.83524293779	0.264	0.764	14.85	15.614	T	T	-3.02	539.98	16	375.80656427932	54.054228470733	0.28523832441918	88	2	1	4	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-01-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	29.25	19.94	24.595	144.29032326518	0.2662	0.8462	14.85	15.6962	T	T	-2.75	542.25	16	376.06313466311	54.262271268659	0.29720380269862	88	2	1	4	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-01-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	28.88	18.54	23.71	143.84704583455	0.2575	0.8275	14.85	15.6775	T	T	-3.12	538.88	16	375.81322239808	54.059621827527	0.28086559580574	88	2	1	4	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-01-15 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	28.94	20.02	24.48	144.70559628635	0.3305	0.6705	14.85	15.5205	T	T	-3.06	535.94	16	376.29700337763	54.452282254528	0.28348534846568	88	2	1	4	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-01-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	25.25	19.97	22.61	143.37817317458	0.3129	0.8329	14.85	15.6829	T	T	-6.75	537.25	16	375.54857357726	53.845468417827	0.14697426038423	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	29.09	19.65	24.37	143.46735615338	0.3184	0.8184	14.85	15.6684	T	T	-2.91	541.09	16	375.59893597775	53.88618631875	0.29008542874224	88	2	1	4	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-01-14 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	24.93	19.74	22.335	144.81119418826	0.3116	0.8116	14.85	15.6616	T	T	-7.07	536.93	16	376.35643346836	54.500624570987	0.13766155387304	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	29.81	21.43	25.62	145.42905258334	0.2404	0.8904	14.85	15.7404	T	T	-2.19	543.81	16	376.70384247534	54.78368291569	0.32272313833221	88	2	1	4	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-01-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	30.1	21.59	25.845	145.87292277037	0.2609	1.0109	14.85	15.8609	T	T	-1.9	545.1	16	376.95308519176	54.987248284229	0.33628448632732	88	2	1	4	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-01-14 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	30.16	20.29	25.225	141.20272860942	0.3219	1.1419	14.55	15.6919	T	T	-1.84	542.16	16	374.31654130176	52.85451699545	0.33911781007285	88	2	1	4	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-01-13 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	29.81	20.06	24.935	140.77485431838	0.4528	1.2128	14.73	15.9428	T	T	-2.19	549.81	16	374.07341855345	52.660131001241	0.32272313833221	88	2	1	4	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-01-13 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	29.62	20.72	25.17	140.58926047221	0.4556	1.1356	14.73	15.8656	T	T	-2.38	548.62	16	373.96787995576	52.57586768334	0.31396278165918	88	2	1	4	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-01-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	26.05	18.7	22.375	142.36239447489	0.472	1.212	14.73	15.942	T	T	-5.95	545.05	16	374.97414886493	53.382217698596	0.17206085977374	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	21.57	17.16	19.365	142.1464919833	0.383	1.153	14.71	15.863	T	T	-10.43	537.57	16	374.85186451148	53.283877553704	0.063523913196525	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	21.59	17.19	19.39	142.39593856004	0.3893	1.1893	14.76	15.9493	T	T	-10.41	537.59	16	374.99314177889	53.397500377184	0.063847343074219	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	21.21	17.22	19.215	136.53942174924	0.3857	1.1757	13.42	14.5957	T	T	-10.79	528.21	16	371.65249367076	50.745216577468	0.05791694092416	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	18.83	13.27	16.05	133.61914849738	0.4348	1.2048	14.13	15.3348	T	T	-13.17	535.83	16	369.96806473872	49.43481778161	0.029969377246134	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	15.49	10.29	12.89	132.25781889808	0.2853	0.9353	14.14	15.0753	T	T	-16.51	535.49	16	369.17856271947	48.826751489207	0.010298092256145	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	15.49	10.32	12.905	136.47013201674	0.2853	0.9853	14.13	15.1153	T	T	-16.51	535.49	16	371.61267152845	50.714030342581	0.010298092256145	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	15.27	9.8	12.535	136.96556513531	0.1767	0.8967	14.64	15.5367	T	T	-16.73	533.27	16	371.89725243414	50.93711735191	0.0095411037333001	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	14.92	10.35	12.635	138.60885440679	0.0875	0.7575	15.18	15.9375	T	T	-17.08	529.92	16	372.83861171355	51.678732848233	0.0084368347686077	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-12 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	14.93	10.36	12.645	128.64441675027	0.0875	0.9475	14.11	15.0575	T	T	-17.07	525.93	16	367.0696850065	47.221465534366	0.0084667587901592	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	18.84	9.88	14.36	126.30140992387	0.2447	0.7547	14.91	15.6647	T	T	-13.16	535.84	16	365.69186321122	46.187397921265	0.030057749085675	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	20.22	9.68	14.95	125.19730986078	0.2091	0.6191	14.94	15.5591	T	T	-11.78	534.22	16	365.03974144192	45.701993620803	0.044484042174112	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	20.22	9.7	14.96	127.44408625804	0.2091	0.5991	14.97	15.5691	T	T	-11.78	533.22	16	366.36484651211	46.691033100802	0.044484042174112	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	21.82	16.52	19.17	137.6384590675	0.9257	1.5657	15.28	16.8457	T	T	-10.18	531.82	16	372.28319525183	51.240485331188	0.067659132316919	88	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	20.8	15.58	18.19	139.4526826793	0.8824	1.4824	15.79	17.2724	T	T	-11.2	526.8	16	373.32047456773	52.06054167758	0.052011750644732	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-11 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	20.8	15.59	18.195	139.30935978357	0.8824	1.4824	14.68	16.1624	T	T	-11.2	524.8	16	373.23870371942	51.995644861603	0.052011750644732	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	16.4	11.72	14.06	136.37642475941	0.2404	1.2104	16.26	17.4704	T	T	-15.6	529.4	16	371.55880501525	50.671861415857	0.014011315077942	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	15.18	11.64	13.41	138.28013193224	0.2349	1.2149	16.3	17.5149	T	T	-16.82	524.18	16	372.65061709027	51.530176495872	0.0092457172508766	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	15.16	11.67	13.415	142.88596951479	0.2349	1.2349	16.32	17.5549	T	T	-16.84	524.16	16	375.27041658588	53.620877304092	0.0091811722076645	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	17.97	10.78	14.375	139.58963010586	0.3954	0.8554	16.72	17.5754	T	T	-14.03	528.97	16	373.39858017625	52.122569688857	0.023134579384964	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-10 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	20.06	13.2	16.63	148.43655823428	0.8888	1.4488	16.93	18.3788	T	T	-11.94	526.06	16	378.38713657566	56.166484233416	0.042569162131807	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	20.08	13.21	16.645	149.7864251877	0.8888	1.4488	16.42	17.8688	T	T	-11.92	531.08	16	379.13848320964	56.78979805106	0.042804825674401	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-09 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	19.51	10.27	14.89	152.93731928245	0.8349	1.3349	16.6	17.9349	T	T	-12.49	526.51	16	380.88230347198	58.251118455131	0.036488078292783	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	20.53	12.2	16.365	150.01034042915	0.7502	1.2602	16.36	17.6202	T	T	-11.47	535.53	16	379.26286729103	56.893351834461	0.048390646393322	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	18.81	12.2	15.505	148.74159779977	0.5689	1.0789	16.04	17.1189	T	T	-13.19	531.81	16	378.55714937969	56.307195257262	0.029793278143568	88	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	5.91	4.78	5.345	146.08238408618	0.4186	0.7486	15.58	16.3286	T	T	-26.09	511.91	16	377.07060469895	55.08337290324	0.00018496060871287	88	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-177	3.53	2.56	3.045	137.93251425502	0.0499	0.3699	15.56	15.9299	T	T	-28.47	499.53	16	372.45164556745	51.373191911537	5.4627831385767E-5	88	1	1	4	2	1	2	6	WET	L