Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 14, 2020

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DAY 106 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/15/2020 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 15.91°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 9.81°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 12.86°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.041 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 561 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.22 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.97 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.15 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.12 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 141 in SWE DAY: 14 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 372.27 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 52.34 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -179 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 4 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-15 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	106	-179	15.90998	9.80996	12.85997	140.60667416667	0.21999999999997	1.97	13.15	15.12	T	T	-16.09002	560.90998	14	372.26949230409	52.343575206591	0.040965160139625	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-15 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-179	12.76	12.76	12.76	141.01577727601	0.0022	1.7522	13.15	14.9022	T	T	-19.24	557.76	14	372.5038281326	52.528916862407	0.020036627934414	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-14 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	14.1	12.85	13.475	141.40515370517	0.1959	1.9459	13.15	15.0959	T	T	-17.9	559.1	14	372.72663838261	52.705467590506	0.027453460591502	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	15.7	12.56	14.13	142.53878800056	0.3592	2.1092	13.15	15.2592	T	T	-16.3	560.7	14	373.37407699048	53.220288405049	0.039164117828993	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	17.42	13.23	15.325	142.95551951083	0.4912	2.2412	13.15	15.3912	T	T	-14.58	562.42	14	373.61161150196	53.409842017543	0.055968900841509	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-14 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	18.04	13.2	15.62	137.88678331107	0.5542	2.0042	13.15	15.1542	T	T	-13.96	560.04	14	370.70532197134	51.115364402922	0.063260151021374	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-13 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	17.86	12.98	15.42	136.63655530041	0.5295	2.1595	13.15	15.3095	T	T	-14.14	567.86	14	369.98270052593	50.553161720607	0.061071227258139	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-13 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	18.16	12.47	15.315	136.25711829149	0.4721	2.1021	13.15	15.2521	T	T	-13.84	568.16	14	369.7629347848	50.38283194478	0.064752928085474	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	19.06	12.13	15.595	137.26072562204	0.4543	2.0843	13.15	15.2343	T	T	-12.94	569.06	14	370.34375264947	50.833652218256	0.07683157455183	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	19.51	11.95	15.73	136.97408853222	0.4332	2.0432	13.15	15.1932	T	T	-12.49	568.51	14	370.17801813091	50.704796628145	0.08347742898485	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	19.52	11.91	15.715	136.91016760735	0.4332	2.0932	13.15	15.2432	T	T	-12.48	568.52	14	370.14104238209	50.676072150892	0.083629856730387	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	19.7	12.92	16.31	130.82332022323	0.3963	0.7163	13.15	13.8663	T	T	-12.3	555.7	14	366.59239255466	47.958833962579	0.086409307138359	90	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	16.56	12.21	14.385	127.01731629971	0.3817	1.4117	13.15	14.5617	T	T	-15.44	567.56	14	364.34544067093	46.278180080058	0.046968434470962	90	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	20.12	12.75	16.435	126.94728213077	0.3617	1.4017	13.15	14.5517	T	T	-11.88	571.12	14	364.3038907048	46.24738879464	0.093161438373153	90	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	20.8	13.13	16.965	130.71296439187	0.363	1.393	13.15	14.543	T	T	-11.2	571.8	14	366.52754706283	47.909902207862	0.1049046064444	90	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	21.02	13.56	17.29	132.33969277118	0.3789	1.9189	13.15	15.0689	T	T	-10.98	572.02	14	367.48158026922	48.632399431895	0.1089234249088	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	20.51	10.9	15.705	134.43144398928	0.3172	2.3972	13.15	15.5472	T	T	-11.49	572.51	14	368.70255798612	49.565217272615	0.09977208945895	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-12 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	20.53	10.93	15.73	124.38089871566	0.5073	2.7173	11.95	14.6673	T	T	-11.47	568.53	14	362.77619404303	45.12242904772	0.10012007633606	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	19.99	10.24	15.115	122.06307349799	0.3165	2.8465	12.43	15.2765	T	T	-12.01	574.99	14	361.38787258485	44.112114452608	0.091031212802681	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	21.89	11.08	16.485	122.56916872984	0.3547	2.9147	12.43	15.3447	T	T	-10.11	575.89	14	361.69170931101	44.332252146724	0.1258940090837	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	21.24	11.09	16.165	124.75632428186	0.3287	2.9187	12.43	15.3487	T	T	-10.76	575.24	14	363.00029675547	45.286582736437	0.11305138588529	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	14.19	8.98	11.585	125.65605031237	0.2849	2.7649	12.85	15.6149	T	T	-17.81	567.19	14	363.53650108615	45.680560870863	0.028024352583954	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	12.2	4.97	8.585	126.9274297219	0.2312	2.6112	13.46	16.0712	T	T	-19.8	565.2	14	364.29211129631	46.238661354804	0.017482710793417	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-11 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	12.22	3.65	7.935	126.47321905253	0.233	2.573	12.39	14.963	T	T	-19.78	563.22	14	364.02244349245	46.039090235859	0.017568900753129	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	10.98	3.57	7.275	127.12782432876	0.449	3.049	13.71	16.759	T	T	-21.02	572.98	14	364.41098799247	46.326776064975	0.012864054309478	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	10.88	3.98	7.43	128.95070769453	0.4617	3.0417	13.77	16.8117	T	T	-21.12	568.88	14	365.48957209628	47.130138976785	0.012537174029333	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	15.02	4.01	9.515	133.3141316597	0.4821	3.0021	13.85	16.8521	T	T	-16.98	569.02	14	368.05117789887	49.066423187917	0.033768121973231	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	17.36	0.7	9.03	130.70986915357	0.2094	2.8494	14.13	16.9794	T	T	-14.64	573.36	14	366.52572802737	47.908529951876	0.055299886333649	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-10 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	15.36	0.54	7.95	135.07621867179	0.402	3.032	14.35	17.382	T	T	-16.64	567.36	14	369.07761378075	49.85360846591	0.036384562563867	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	15.38	0.58	7.98	135.80211940526	0.402	2.902	13.97	16.872	T	T	-16.62	572.38	14	369.49912501119	50.178764294909	0.036543484601318	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-09 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	14.25	1.22	7.735	138.31136267833	0.3504	3.1104	13.89	17.0004	T	T	-17.75	570.25	14	370.95020382195	51.30662817642	0.028410398345799	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	15.01	0.73	7.87	137.25310390933	0.3759	3.0459	13.74	16.7859	T	T	-16.99	577.01	14	370.33934731124	50.830224918222	0.033693568136622	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	15.03	0.75	7.89	137.38915754181	0.3759	2.7659	13.7	16.4659	T	T	-16.97	575.03	14	370.41797327648	50.8914132868	0.033842811089928	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	16.04	-0.01	8.015	134.98418369058	0.2729	2.7229	13.18	15.9029	T	T	-15.96	569.04	14	369.02411598133	49.812419057876	0.042113548211052	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	12.49	1.22	6.855	136.20031861619	0.2954	2.5954	13.31	15.9054	T	T	-19.51	560.49	14	369.73001880793	50.357346363609	0.018768347601152	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-09 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	12.49	1.23	6.86	135.89528851029	0.2954	2.5954	13.2	15.7954	T	T	-19.51	552.49	14	369.55316957511	50.220534599302	0.018768347601152	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	7.01	0.2	3.605	137.82149437515	0.305	2.965	13.61	16.575	T	T	-24.99	556.01	14	370.66764226825	51.085968373925	0.0043193158768651	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	10.34	0.68	5.51	137.71936143132	0.2178	2.9578	13.85	16.8078	T	T	-21.66	555.34	14	370.60868653104	51.039991649954	0.010893334474566	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	10.37	0.71	5.54	139.21127600567	0.2178	2.9578	13.92	16.8778	T	T	-21.63	557.37	14	371.46836866236	51.712585597231	0.010979482163654	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	10.37	-4.35	3.01	144.15731120892	0.171	2.691	14.07	16.761	T	T	-21.63	560.37	14	374.29521932241	53.957392415871	0.010979482163654	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	10.36	-5.8	2.28	147.33217292465	0.208	2.758	14.27	17.028	T	T	-21.64	559.36	14	376.09115047628	55.4103264174	0.010950700720573	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-08 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	10.38	-5.78	2.3	142.59286067943	0.208	2.758	12.53	15.288	T	T	-21.62	560.38	14	373.40491229697	53.244874636177	0.011008329314381	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	10.53	1.48	6.005	141.32387241128	0.1878	2.5178	13.2	15.7178	T	T	-21.47	565.53	14	372.6801455327	52.668601337482	0.011449004027836	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-07 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	10.83	1.63	6.23	141.94297479592	0.1396	2.5296	13.35	15.8796	T	T	-21.17	567.83	14	373.03402995298	52.949559911637	0.012376443933697	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	9.46	1.62	5.54	143.80951908416	0.0958	2.4858	13.31	15.7958	T	T	-22.54	570.46	14	374.09760137449	53.798796144203	0.0086146831568515	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	9.03	1.38	5.205	139.35526483232	0.0647	1.4047	14.1	15.5047	T	T	-22.97	560.03	14	371.55116672778	51.777611238106	0.0076617775015843	90	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	106	-179	14.46	12.35	13.405	141.94871202481	0.0441	1.8841	13.75	15.6341	T	T	-17.54	559.46	14	373.03730680226	52.952165237784	0.029796466033002	90	1	1	4	5	1	2	15	WET	L