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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 13, 2020

[ Sunday, January 12, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 14, 2020 ]

DAY 105 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/14/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 21.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 12.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 16.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.103
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 571

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.31 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.98 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 140 in
SWE DAY: 13
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 370.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -180

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-14 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020105-18021.2912.3299616.80998139.579773333330.312.9811.9214.9TT-10.71571.2913370.81893511857 51.7588229115580.102994661647492 11451215WETL
2020-01-14 00:00:12FORECAST2020106-18018.4618.4618.46134.078815470930.01342.683411.9214.6034TT-13.54568.4613367.623790168249.2905623246870.0582642549192619211451215WETL
2020-01-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020105-18025.6117.0121.31134.080063642260.1922.86211.9214.782TT-6.39575.6113367.6245202244249.2911190681460.211853742671199211451215WETL
2020-01-13 08:00:10FORECAST2020105-18024.6916.7220.705133.955170004550.16612.836111.9214.7561TT-7.31574.6913367.5514583827749.2354180930840.184348737077559211451215WETL
2020-01-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020105-18024.713.1618.93133.851097910110.22072.890711.9214.8107TT-7.3574.713367.4905592818549.1890148314740.184635251919599211451215WETL
2020-01-13 00:00:12FORECAST2020105-18020.8114.4317.62127.977374130470.28911.549111.9213.4691TT-11.19561.8113364.0272505384846.5872516358510.0940291351869119211451215WETL
2020-01-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020105-18024.3212.8518.585124.108233999720.31782.257811.9214.1778TT-7.68577.3213361.7175079381444.8921211169840.173942308541999211451215WETL
2020-01-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020105-18024.213.6518.925124.20882628440.32872.268711.9214.1887TT-7.8577.213361.7778458961544.936001614460.170648882374619211451215WETL
2020-01-12 12:00:11FORECAST2020105-18024.1114.7319.42127.950851520580.32212.262111.9214.1821TT-7.89577.1113364.0114946018946.5755806975910.168205122621129211451215WETL
2020-01-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020105-18023.4913.7918.64129.513177581530.34272.772711.9214.6927TT-8.51577.4913364.93779713247.2642537261680.151984267957019211451215WETL
2020-01-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020105-18023.3412.4617.9131.843956992370.34483.314811.9215.2348TT-8.66578.3413366.3129007904548.2961423375650.148221001680989211451215WETL
2020-01-12 00:00:17FORECAST2020105-18023.112.117.6120.269205845950.3212.24111.9214.161TT-8.9574.113359.4031961561943.22513698020.142330129656499211451215WETL
2020-01-11 20:00:11FORECAST2020105-18023.713.9318.815119.389043508330.52483.044811.9214.9648TT-8.3580.713358.8694133156142.8450760001470.157358284276589211451215WETL
2020-01-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020105-18024.2414.4819.36119.680955856190.56323.073211.9214.9932TT-7.76580.2413359.0465786158542.9710377256390.171742238686589211451215WETL
2020-01-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020105-18023.8914.2719.08121.992170776010.58213.102111.9215.0221TT-8.11579.8913360.4446565438943.9714260964030.162326550474499211451215WETL
2020-01-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020105-18023.1714.4618.815123.011163685680.48163.411611.9215.3316TT-8.83579.1713361.0584537641844.4142205560830.144031746254659211451215WETL
2020-01-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020105-18021.699.8615.775124.383876148420.36923.919211.9215.8392TT-10.31578.6913361.8828087632445.012386465450.110926138982629211451215WETL
2020-01-11 00:00:12FORECAST2020105-18021.39.6915.495123.792258478850.35784.307810.4214.7278TT-10.7577.313361.5278770212244.7543523995210.103187807554739211451215WETL
2020-01-10 20:00:11FORECAST2020105-18019.7710.4715.12121.502284223530.40364.693611.6216.3136TT-12.23587.7713360.1490041440343.7589266643310.0765960708501119211451215WETL
2020-01-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020105-18020.230.5310.38123.00142179380.42174.731711.6216.3517TT-11.77584.2313361.0525931884444.4099823045160.0839781813928039211451215WETL
2020-01-10 12:00:11FORECAST2020105-18017.519.9313.72127.181098784790.49694.746911.6216.3669TT-14.49579.5113363.5537550229946.2371660311610.0472670242486949211451215WETL
2020-01-10 08:00:11FORECAST2020105-18019.5810.9715.275128.317863559270.58214.792111.9816.7721TT-12.42581.5813364.2294263458446.7371418341150.0736946582727359211451215WETL
2020-01-10 04:00:11FORECAST2020105-18018.757.2813.015129.868099662280.49844.708412.2716.9784TT-13.25577.7513365.1477184071847.4210402855580.0619933372195839211451215WETL
2020-01-10 00:00:12FORECAST2020105-18018.788.7713.775130.488172763980.49814.618111.8516.4681TT-13.22582.7813365.5140113884747.6952554657130.0623894649253939211451215WETL
2020-01-09 20:00:10FORECAST2020105-18019.1411.5115.325133.470641549310.63364.713611.9416.6536TT-12.86582.1413367.2677933904949.0194680042290.0672977853398299211451215WETL
2020-01-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020105-18019.0313.2716.15132.050844287450.59724.537211.8716.4072TT-12.97588.0313366.4345663888648.3879938677560.0657674424490969211451215WETL
2020-01-09 12:00:11FORECAST2020105-18019.0413.2716.155132.067663073240.59724.157211.9316.0872TT-12.96586.0413366.4444543152248.395462727560.0659054438635559211451215WETL
2020-01-09 08:00:11FORECAST2020105-18019.0412.0815.56130.888589995490.6623.86211.7715.632TT-12.96579.0413365.7502416776247.8725334236950.0659054438635559211451215WETL
2020-01-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020105-18018.513.2915.895131.60076532530.5593.89911.7115.609TT-13.5574.513366.1698036650348.1882264013320.0587679157809339211451215WETL
2020-01-09 00:00:12FORECAST2020105-18018.5213.315.91131.176408116680.5593.98911.5115.499TT-13.48565.5213365.9198946014748.0000574322540.059021020049479211451215WETL
2020-01-08 20:00:11FORECAST2020105-18015.957.7211.835132.314899638420.57794.397911.8716.2679TT-16.05574.9513366.589758342648.5052870835740.0328629913907619211451215WETL
2020-01-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020105-18017.869.9613.91134.131816739510.53144.671411.9216.5914TT-14.14570.8613367.6547886069649.3142047288340.0511080307538899211451215WETL
2020-01-08 12:00:11FORECAST2020105-18017.899.9713.93135.517961090420.53144.711411.9516.6614TT-14.11572.8913368.4640120830349.9334916526890.0514484589390019211451215WETL
2020-01-08 08:00:11FORECAST2020105-18017.19-0.018.59140.556444314180.35614.446112.1416.5861TT-14.81576.1913371.3815670124852.2000725431040.0439604094487419211451215WETL
2020-01-08 04:00:12FORECAST2020105-18017.729.113.41143.455895873380.42784.537812.2816.8178TT-14.28574.7213373.0436584035153.5153122161590.0495429274710819211451215WETL
2020-01-08 00:00:12FORECAST2020105-18017.769.1113.435138.571980314970.42784.777810.315.0778TT-14.24575.7613370.2369096957751.3044617622370.0499861587109829211451215WETL
2020-01-07 20:00:11FORECAST2020105-18017.868.0412.95137.315914257170.84754.277511.2515.5275TT-14.14580.8613369.5094117091550.7395226954710.0511080307538899211451215WETL
2020-01-07 16:00:10FORECAST2020105-18017.8910.1714.03138.958647435870.87194.311911.4315.7419TT-14.11582.8913370.4603957035751.4786755155250.0514484589390019211451215WETL
2020-01-07 12:00:11FORECAST2020105-18017.9110.1814.045141.58563685570.87194.311911.3915.7019TT-14.09586.9113371.9729466460852.6660265439770.0516764079058589211451215WETL
2020-01-07 08:00:11FORECAST2020105-18018.179.3713.77137.800257742370.70293.352912.0915.4429TT-13.83577.1713369.7902124621750.9571865878930.0547131260200099211451215WETL
2020-01-07 04:00:12FORECAST2020105-18018.8715.3417.105141.148304314891.17523.415212.1715.5852TT-13.13570.8713371.7218418644252.4679076559690.0635896559338659211451215WETL
2020-01-07 00:00:13FORECAST2020105-18018.8815.3617.12124.436599737071.17523.41529.312.7152TT-13.12576.8813361.9144135771645.0353990213780.0637241082463619211451215WETL
2020-01-06 20:00:11FORECAST2020105-18022.6317.4220.025126.816335498581.63874.248711.5415.7887TT-9.37586.6313363.3365329081946.0770076561770.131256803711819211451215WETL
2020-01-06 16:00:10FORECAST2020105-18018.3714.6516.51113.947079604680.6442.57411.7914.364TT-13.63582.3713355.5424512795440.5130239987930.0571433764599419211451215WETL
2020-01-06 12:00:11FORECAST2020105-18018.4114.6716.54115.003113808640.45762.387611.914.2876TT-13.59585.4113356.1916623591640.9631502839810.0576394384159499211451215WETL
2020-01-06 08:00:10FORECAST2020105-18015.6212.8814.25125.739609740210.33193.521912.7216.2419TT-16.38586.6213362.6941511504245.605021020710.030333327804929211451215WETL
2020-01-06 04:00:12FORECAST2020105-18012.0111.5111.76127.724624190050.13783.337813.3716.7078TT-19.99584.0113363.877059571846.4760606851870.0117235103437039211451215WETL