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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 1, 2020

[ Tuesday, December 31, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 2, 2020 ]

DAY 93 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/02/2020 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.21°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.390
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 85 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 613

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.53 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.37 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 51 in
SWE DAY: 1
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 299.89 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 15.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -192

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 5
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-02 04:00:13OBSERVATION202093-19229.0600625.3599827.2100250.511710.530000000000031.376.878.24TT-2.93994613.060061299.88615397024 15.147762442360.3902238966091585 21541216WETL
2020-01-02 00:00:14FORECAST202094-19225.1125.1125.1146.104378203520.02280.86286.877.7328TT-6.89609.111296.5312580246113.6713892691320.219946739462148511531210.5WETL
2020-01-01 12:00:11FORECAST202093-19229.6123.9926.846.4729388639850.44241.28246.878.1524TT-2.39613.611296.8132505741613.7937840479530.416827558940068521541216WETL
2020-01-01 08:00:11FORECAST202093-19232.3624.3128.33547.437686668870.87371.71376.878.5837TT0.36616.361297.5501481992514.1150906985520.553147476950978531551222.5WETL
2020-01-01 04:00:13FORECAST202093-19234.4724.8829.67547.8956288501531.26062.10066.878.9706TT2.47618.471297.8993039759214.268074497950.65441948784238531551222.5WETL
2020-01-01 00:00:13FORECAST202093-19238.6725.0631.86547.3181721274081.76721.88726.878.7572TT6.67272.671297.4589580747614.0752141790210.821790714846078541251217.5WETL
2019-12-31 20:00:12FORECAST202093-19238.8324.0531.4447.4339174831571.85284.22286.8711.0928TT6.83268.831297.5472727165814.1138327813770.826958934149488541251217.5WETL
2019-12-31 16:00:11FORECAST202093-19236.6924.0530.3747.3522409284721.73674.10676.8710.9767TT4.69266.691297.4849555417714.0865792874090.750069651026828541251217.5WETL
2019-12-31 12:00:11FORECAST202093-19236.2123.930.05545.0015301269151.72244.09246.8710.9624TT4.21266.211295.685870111613.306316591930.730630251722938541251217.5WETL
2019-12-31 08:00:10FORECAST202093-19239.1823.7931.48545.0415663777671.98035.10036.8711.9703TT7.18270.181295.7166013316313.3195389278860.837928527065528541251217.5WETL
2019-12-31 04:00:12FORECAST202093-1923923.5731.28545.2643155361191.9875.0576.8711.927TT72721295.8875231629613.3931462116490.832344679477758541251217.5WETL
2019-12-31 00:00:16FORECAST202093-19234.6123.7329.1744.1212641154032.01424.68426.8711.5542TT2.610.611295.0094009229913.016187694650.660846494267068531151212.5WETL
2019-12-30 20:00:11FORECAST202093-19238.324.231.2544.111678544322.02294.65296.8711.5229TT6.38.31295.0020262496213.0130345518460.809472136586628541151215WETL
2019-12-30 16:00:11FORECAST202093-19238.2124.6831.44544.1444124501041.84124.49126.8711.3612TT6.218.211295.0272093883813.0238028152440.806398648572718541151215WETL
2019-12-30 12:00:11FORECAST202093-19238.0424.7131.37544.1393029435811.83294.42296.8711.2929TT6.048.041295.023278635413.0221218710970.800511451520588541151215WETL
2019-12-29 20:02:14FORECAST202093-1923524.7429.8743.9754435073482.09064.87066.8711.7406TT331294.8971942084912.9682349043910.678500440569288531151212.5WETL
2019-12-29 04:02:15FORECAST202093-19238.5626.7832.6743.7368623333332.0624.0726.8710.942TT6.5610.561294.7135200177412.8898446527880.818181858516058541151215WETL
2019-12-29 04:00:12FORECAST202093-19238.5625.9532.25543.8656023333332.0934.0036.8710.873TT6.565.561294.8126456675112.9321342776890.818181858516058541151215WETL
2019-12-29 00:02:15FORECAST202093-19237.3725.9531.6646.498982.14083.99086.8610.8508TT5.373.371296.8331651436613.8024394093520.7762828389338541151215WETL
2019-12-29 00:00:12FORECAST202093-19235.1625.9530.55546.2355413333332.20193.85196.8610.7119TT3.167.161296.63164360913.7149246188580.685630955581718531151212.5WETL
2019-12-28 20:02:12FORECAST202093-19234.527.0330.76546.2036161.96673.40676.8610.2667TT2.515.51296.6072126629913.7043257567110.655800531210358531151212.5WETL
2019-12-28 20:00:11FORECAST202093-19233.4727.0330.2546.1796721.92783.50786.8710.3778TT1.4714.471296.5888881533413.6963775737660.607312299323938531151212.5WETL
2019-12-28 16:02:14FORECAST202093-19234.8927.113146.2735346666671.8843.3946.8610.254TT2.8914.891296.6607155264913.7275399041530.673559595380168531151212.5WETL
2019-12-28 16:00:11FORECAST202093-19234.8927.113146.2824453333331.8843.3946.8610.254TT2.8914.891296.6675334261813.7304988979720.673559595380168531151212.5WETL
2019-12-28 12:02:13FORECAST202093-19234.8927.1231.00545.9564681.8843.1346.9410.074TT2.8916.891296.4180149533113.6223250188250.673559595380168531151212.5WETL
2019-12-28 12:00:11FORECAST202093-19234.2526.7730.5145.7613626666672.0693.2197.0310.249TT2.2515.251296.2685732394413.5576536267460.644230041420598531151212.5WETL
2019-12-28 00:02:13FORECAST202093-19237.4329.1533.2945.9417081.96852.90856.939.8385TT5.4321.431296.4067120612213.6174306147570.778518374474288541151215WETL
2019-12-28 00:00:13FORECAST202093-19237.4329.1533.2945.7569346666671.96852.90856.939.8385TT5.4321.431296.2651807355113.5561865189230.778518374474288541151215WETL
2019-12-27 16:02:15FORECAST202093-19236.628.3532.47546.6149614231822.00992.72997.069.7899TT4.626.61296.9218442072513.8410003134210.746482266214298541151215WETL
2019-12-27 04:02:12FORECAST202093-19234.4729.6732.0746.515822600991.04981.94987.279.2198TT2.4717.471296.8460445695313.8080379490020.65441948784238531151212.5WETL
2019-12-27 04:00:12FORECAST202093-19234.4829.6832.0846.8318058799761.04981.94987.319.2598TT2.4815.481297.087572792213.9131475383570.654880065012828531151212.5WETL
2019-12-26 16:02:13FORECAST202093-19236.3729.532.93547.7418632273190.44291.79297.469.2529TT4.3715.371297.7821114153314.2166728347330.737193211347128541151215WETL
2019-12-26 08:02:14FORECAST202093-19234.5226.3330.42549.2744386517380.70942.02947.719.7394TT2.5213.521298.9481218374914.7305008895340.656720075866258531151212.5WETL
2019-12-26 08:00:12FORECAST202093-19234.5226.3330.42549.4728973908350.70942.02947.829.8494TT2.529.521299.0987810782414.7972833060080.656720075866258531151212.5WETL
2019-12-26 00:02:14FORECAST202093-19237.2825.4931.38550.2022069118260.70982.03987.789.8198TT5.2812.281299.6517818955415.0431807562170.772905645985118541151215WETL
2019-12-26 00:00:13FORECAST202093-19237.2325.531.36549.7281701182450.70982.03987.829.8598TT5.2316.231299.2924588191914.8832663072680.771017099184618541151215WETL
2019-12-25 20:02:13FORECAST202093-19231.6628.6930.17550.4264726534680.16651.42657.869.2865TT-0.3417.661299.8216261352215.1189470312260.51840351538028531141210WETL
2019-12-25 20:00:11FORECAST202093-19231.4628.6930.07550.5447118453440.14661.40667.759.1566TT-0.5419.461299.9111338406715.1589218391870.508439241122598531141210WETL
2019-12-25 16:02:12FORECAST202093-19234.0227.6930.85550.9960244790410.10321.36327.719.0732TT2.0220.021300.2525329201815.3116855186920.633466291021858531141210WETL
2019-12-25 16:00:11FORECAST202093-19233.2328.330.76551.2592870942140.09021.35027.759.1002TT1.2316.231300.451499394115.4009296653290.595738072553958531141210WETL