Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 27, 2020

[ Saturday, September 26, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, September 28, 2020 ]

DAY 363 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/28/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.32°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.37°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.85°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.422 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 20 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 414 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.72 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.85 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.57 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 270 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.00 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 77 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 3 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 112.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-28 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	363	77	52.32002	33.36998	42.845	0	0	1.72	3.85	5.57	T	F	20.32002	414.32002	270	475.99528780031	0	0.4216515858026	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-09-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	363	77	53.14	53.14	53.14	0	0.0006	1.7206	3.85	5.5706	T	F	21.14	415.14	271	476.45764666845	0	0.44845476591025	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-09-27 11:58:47	FORECAST	2020	363	77	58.9	47.49	53.195	0	0.0129	1.7329	3.85	5.5829	T	F	26.9	420.9	271	476.45764666845	0	0.6363928149187	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-27 07:58:45	FORECAST	2020	363	77	53.99	40.65	47.32	0	0.0058	1.7258	3.85	5.5758	T	F	21.99	415.99	271	476.45764666845	0	0.47648828235669	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-09-27 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.01	36.86	48.435	0	0.0111	1.7311	3.85	5.5811	T	F	28.01	422.01	271	476.45764666845	0	0.6704032710169	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	61.01	35.86	48.435	0	0.0235	1.2535	3.85	5.1035	T	F	29.01	420.01	270	475.99528780031	0	0.69989080789532	89	4	4	3	4	5	2	110	WET	MH
2020-09-26 20:05:29	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.94	38.55	49.745	0	0.014	1.624	3.85	5.474	T	F	28.94	427.94	270	475.99528780031	0	0.69786582718084	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.62	39.86	50.24	0	0.0157	1.6257	3.85	5.4757	T	F	28.62	427.62	270	475.99528780031	0	0.68853178936881	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	61.04	41.3	51.17	0	0.015	1.625	3.85	5.475	T	F	29.04	428.04	270	475.99528780031	0	0.70075677541175	89	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2020-09-26 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.43	41.18	50.805	0	0.0174	1.5974	3.85	5.4474	T	F	28.43	427.43	270	475.99528780031	0	0.68293133874515	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-26 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.24	41.05	50.645	0	0.0129	1.5929	3.85	5.4429	T	F	28.24	425.24	270	475.99528780031	0	0.6772887026117	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.86	41.5	51.18	0	0.0231	0.4931	3.85	4.3431	T	F	28.86	423.86	270	475.99528780031	0	0.69554409036585	89	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	WET	MH
2020-09-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.2	41.64	50.92	0	0.0242	1.3642	3.85	5.2142	T	F	28.2	429.2	270	475.99528780031	0	0.67609550605392	89	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	MH
2020-09-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.29	41.18	50.735	0	0.0204	1.3104	3.85	5.1604	T	F	28.29	429.29	270	475.99528780031	0	0.67877763591359	89	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	MH
2020-09-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.48	40.53	50.505	0	0.0134	1.6234	3.85	5.4734	T	F	28.48	433.48	270	475.99528780031	0	0.68440927557966	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-25 07:58:51	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.25	40.59	50.42	0	0.0181	2.0181	3.85	5.8681	T	T	28.25	426.25	270	475.99528780031	0	0.67758671757936	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	363	77	59.82	40.67	50.245	0	0.028	2.158	3.85	6.008	T	T	27.82	425.82	270	475.99528780031	0	0.66467130923343	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.04	40.84	50.44	0	0.0261	2.3261	3.04	5.3661	T	F	28.04	431.04	270	475.99528780031	0	0.67130471539991	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.88	40.97	50.925	0	0.0201	2.1801	3.35	5.5301	T	F	28.88	433.88	270	475.99528780031	0	0.69612526808178	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.96	41.22	51.09	0	0.0132	2.2032	3.35	5.5532	T	F	28.96	434.96	270	475.99528780031	0	0.69844501829035	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	55.08	41.69	48.385	0	0.0204	2.4604	3.35	5.8104	T	T	23.08	431.08	270	475.99528780031	0	0.51258893966054	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	363	77	54.97	42.35	48.66	0	0.0125	2.3625	3.59	5.9525	T	T	22.97	430.97	270	475.99528780031	0	0.50894550816322	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-24 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	363	77	60.15	42.83	51.49	0	0.002	2.502	3.54	6.042	T	T	28.15	435.15	270	475.99528780031	0	0.67460146499146	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-23 23:59:53	FORECAST	2020	363	77	59.64	44.54	52.09	0	0.0266	2.3066	3.33	5.6366	T	T	27.64	445.64	270	475.99528780031	0	0.6592054327717	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	59.64	44.54	52.09	0	0.0078	2.6878	3.29	5.9778	T	T	27.64	439.64	270	475.99528780031	0	0.6592054327717	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-23 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	363	77	55.63	45.62	50.625	0	0.1169	2.8269	3.33	6.1569	T	T	23.63	437.63	270	475.99528780031	0	0.53078427447309	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	52.29	45.44	48.865	0	0.5102	3.2402	3.55	6.7902	T	T	20.29	439.29	270	475.99528780031	0	0.42067637877466	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	363	77	52.29	45.44	48.865	0	0.5102	3.0202	3.8	6.8202	T	T	20.29	436.29	270	475.99528780031	0	0.42067637877466	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-23 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	363	77	52.22	45.64	48.93	0	0.6405	4.0105	3.56	7.5705	T	T	20.22	436.22	270	475.99528780031	0	0.41840431152213	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 23:58:58	FORECAST	2020	363	77	53.6	47.26	50.43	0	1.0164	5.3264	3.6	8.9264	T	T	21.6	442.6	270	475.99528780031	0	0.46360292234355	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 19:58:59	FORECAST	2020	363	77	53.6	47.26	50.43	0	1.0164	5.5364	3.67	9.2064	T	T	21.6	445.6	270	475.99528780031	0	0.46360292234355	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	52.99	47.69	50.34	0	0.8718	4.4618	3.48	7.9418	T	T	20.99	432.99	270	475.99528780031	0	0.44353026741244	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 11:59:03	FORECAST	2020	363	77	56.64	47.48	52.06	0	0.2411	3.5611	3.53	7.0911	T	T	24.64	446.64	270	475.99528780031	0	0.56400346577964	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	363	77	56.64	47.48	52.06	0	0.2411	3.6411	3.67	7.3111	T	T	24.64	440.64	270	475.99528780031	0	0.56400346577964	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-22 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	363	77	52.41	50.03	51.22	0	0.2342	3.3142	3.73	7.0442	T	T	20.41	442.41	270	475.99528780031	0	0.42457746442758	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	363	77	55.54	49.86	52.7	0	0.2284	3.2084	4.03	7.2384	T	T	23.54	435.54	270	475.99528780031	0	0.52781024029084	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	55.54	49.86	52.7	0	0.2284	3.0384	4.13	7.1684	T	T	23.54	448.54	270	475.99528780031	0	0.52781024029084	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	57.2	48.61	52.905	0	0.3259	3.1659	4.2	7.3659	T	T	25.2	451.2	270	475.99528780031	0	0.58224435439203	89	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	363	77	53.37	47.13	50.25	0	0.5253	2.0453	4.78	6.8253	T	T	21.37	444.37	270	475.99528780031	0	0.45602085350634	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	363	77	53.37	47.13	50.25	0	0.5253	2.0453	4.54	6.5853	T	T	21.37	445.37	270	475.99528780031	0	0.45602085350634	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-21 04:05:22	FORECAST	2020	363	77	53.51	48.74	51.125	0	0.4663	1.9163	4.55	6.4663	T	T	21.51	438.51	270	475.99528780031	0	0.46063429708941	89	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-21 00:00:06	FORECAST	2020	363	77	69.52	52.46	60.99	0	0.0061	1.7261	3.95	5.6761	T	F	37.52	462.52	270	475.99528780031	0	0.89089417870643	89	5	4	3	5	5	1	300	WET	MH
2020-09-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	69.52	52.46	60.99	0	0.0061	1.7261	4.11	5.8361	T	F	37.52	474.52	270	475.99528780031	0	0.89089417870643	89	5	4	3	5	5	1	300	WET	MH
2020-09-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	61.05	45.91	53.48	0	0.0843	2.2843	3.77	6.0543	T	T	29.05	457.05	270	475.99528780031	0	0.70104517934518	89	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-09-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	363	77	55.02	47.77	51.395	0	0.0068	1.3768	3.54	4.9168	T	F	23.02	451.02	270	475.99528780031	0	0.51060172420323	89	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	MH
2020-09-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	363	77	49.13	47.77	48.45	0	0.002	1.372	3.75	5.122	T	F	17.13	444.13	270	475.99528780031	0	0.32181759462372	89	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2020-09-20 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	363	77	49.2	48.11	48.655	0	0.0199	1.1399	3.66	4.7999	T	F	17.2	443.2	270	475.99528780031	0	0.32390449394608	89	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	MH