Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 26, 2020

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DAY 362 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/27/2020 08:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.97°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.83°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.40°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.071 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 422 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.49 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.54 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.57 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 269 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 475.53 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 76 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 3 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-27 07:58:44	OBSERVATION	2020	362	76	38.96996	33.83006	36.40001	0	0.49000000000001	2.54	3.03	5.57	T	T	6.96996	421.96996	269	475.53116862601	0	0.07064543829227	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-27 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2020	362	76	38.96996	33.83006	36.40001	0	0.49000000000001	2.54	3.03	5.57	T	T	6.96996	421.96996	269	475.53116862601	0	0.07064543829227	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	35.86	35.86	35.86	0	0.0029	2.0529	3.03	5.0829	T	F	3.86	418.86	270	475.99528780031	0	0.04005486864645	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2020-09-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	44.47	35.79	40.13	0	0.3773	2.4273	3.03	5.4573	T	F	12.47	427.47	270	475.99528780031	0	0.16394364616303	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2020-09-26 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	362	76	43.68	34.19	38.935	0	0.3489	2.3989	3.03	5.4289	T	F	11.68	426.68	270	475.99528780031	0	0.14706992068147	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2020-09-26 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	42.48	35.36	38.92	0	0.3529	2.4029	3.03	5.4329	T	F	10.48	425.48	270	475.99528780031	0	0.12373599119298	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2020-09-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	43.25	35.17	39.21	0	0.4573	1.2873	3.03	4.3173	T	F	11.25	423.25	269	475.53116862601	0	0.13839158273625	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2020-09-25 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	362	76	40.84	36.33	38.585	0	0.4296	2.1596	3.03	5.1896	T	F	8.84	428.84	269	475.53116862601	0	0.096219559196805	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2020-09-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	41.12	36.31	38.715	0	0.3769	2.1069	3.03	5.1369	T	F	9.12	429.12	269	475.53116862601	0	0.10056950692954	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2020-09-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	44.56	36.88	40.72	0	0.6971	2.4271	3.03	5.4571	T	F	12.56	432.56	269	475.53116862601	0	0.16594249295003	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2020-09-25 07:58:51	FORECAST	2020	362	76	39.81	36.99	38.4	0	0.4701	2.8201	3.03	5.8501	T	T	7.81	425.81	269	475.53116862601	0	0.081403116116721	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	362	76	42.28	37.76	40.02	0	0.4386	2.9486	3.03	5.9786	T	T	10.28	426.28	269	475.53116862601	0	0.12011341330776	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	362	76	45.14	36.84	40.99	0	0.3513	2.3113	3.03	5.3413	T	F	13.14	431.14	269	475.53116862601	0	0.17919868966619	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2020-09-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	44.92	36.81	40.865	0	0.2619	2.4819	3.03	5.5119	T	T	12.92	432.92	269	475.53116862601	0	0.17409420587223	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	362	76	45.08	36.96	41.02	0	0.2884	2.5084	3.03	5.5384	T	T	13.08	434.08	269	475.53116862601	0	0.17779733136716	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	46.74	37.42	42.08	0	0.3014	2.7614	3.03	5.7914	T	T	14.74	435.74	269	475.53116862601	0	0.21908825126709	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	47.51	37.79	42.65	0	0.3556	2.9056	3.03	5.9356	T	T	15.51	435.51	269	475.53116862601	0	0.23997032807229	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-24 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	49.37	39.13	44.25	0	0.2162	3.0062	3.03	6.0362	T	T	17.37	435.37	269	475.53116862601	0	0.29458584640599	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-23 23:59:53	FORECAST	2020	362	76	51.68	40.43	46.055	0	0.3219	2.9419	2.67	5.6119	T	T	19.68	445.68	269	475.53116862601	0	0.36939833761733	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	51.34	39.89	45.615	0	0.426	3.296	2.67	5.966	T	T	19.34	440.34	269	475.53116862601	0	0.35798363410332	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-23 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	362	76	51.69	39.68	45.685	0	0.4649	3.3749	2.67	6.0449	T	T	19.69	441.69	269	475.53116862601	0	0.3697358703755	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	53.4	42.07	47.735	0	1.1188	3.6088	2.67	6.2788	T	T	21.4	447.4	269	475.53116862601	0	0.42872229445801	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	53.4	42.56	47.98	0	1.0563	3.3363	2.97	6.3063	T	T	21.4	444.4	269	475.53116862601	0	0.42872229445801	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-23 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	362	76	52	41.5	46.75	0	1.9573	4.2273	2.7	6.9273	T	T	20	444	269	475.53116862601	0	0.38024796457144	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 23:58:58	FORECAST	2020	362	76	49.63	41.71	45.67	0	2.4241	5.1441	2.77	7.9141	T	T	17.63	448.63	269	475.53116862601	0	0.3026536578142	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 19:58:59	FORECAST	2020	362	76	49.63	41.71	45.67	0	2.5295	5.4095	2.78	8.1895	T	T	17.63	451.63	269	475.53116862601	0	0.3026536578142	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	48.87	42.08	45.475	0	1.6469	4.4569	2.61	7.0669	T	T	16.87	439.87	269	475.53116862601	0	0.27935609007944	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 11:59:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	52.05	43.81	47.93	0	1.5066	4.3266	2.52	6.8466	T	T	20.05	450.05	269	475.53116862601	0	0.3819520079126	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	362	76	52.05	43.81	47.93	0	1.5066	4.4466	2.62	7.0666	T	T	20.05	444.05	269	475.53116862601	0	0.3819520079126	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	362	76	52.29	43.8	48.045	0	1.3724	4.1824	2.63	6.8124	T	T	20.29	450.29	269	475.53116862601	0	0.39016273496091	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	362	76	51.3	45.57	48.435	0	0.7486	4.2186	2.79	7.0086	T	T	19.3	440.3	269	475.53116862601	0	0.35664880435606	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	51.3	45.57	48.435	0	0.7486	4.2286	2.71	6.9386	T	T	19.3	453.3	269	475.53116862601	0	0.35664880435606	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	50.34	44.55	47.445	0	0.7813	4.2513	2.79	7.0413	T	T	18.34	454.34	269	475.53116862601	0	0.32517161947389	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	49.84	45.67	47.755	0	0.7506	3.2206	3.08	6.3006	T	T	17.84	450.84	269	475.53116862601	0	0.30924125146715	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	362	76	49.84	45.67	47.755	0	0.7506	3.2406	2.82	6.0606	T	T	17.84	451.84	269	475.53116862601	0	0.30924125146715	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-21 04:05:22	FORECAST	2020	362	76	50.88	45.14	48.01	0	0.6064	3.1564	2.84	5.9964	T	T	18.88	444.88	269	475.53116862601	0	0.34274168286588	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-21 00:00:06	FORECAST	2020	362	76	57.15	43.07	50.11	0	0.3265	2.9965	2.67	5.6665	T	T	25.15	453.15	269	475.53116862601	0	0.56187790841272	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	57.15	43.07	50.11	0	0.3265	2.9265	2.9	5.8265	T	T	25.15	465.15	269	475.53116862601	0	0.56187790841272	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-09-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	49.94	40.73	45.335	0	0.3809	3.0309	2.94	5.9709	T	T	17.94	455.94	269	475.53116862601	0	0.3124000464456	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-09-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	56.5	39.22	47.86	0	0.0261	2.5061	2.4	4.9061	T	F	24.5	455.5	269	475.53116862601	0	0.53887623415455	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	362	76	56.5	39.22	47.86	0	0.0261	2.5061	2.61	5.1161	T	F	24.5	454.5	269	475.53116862601	0	0.53887623415455	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-09-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	362	76	54.86	40	47.43	0	0.0181	2.3881	2.39	4.7781	T	F	22.86	453.86	269	475.53116862601	0	0.48043528615373	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-09-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	52.22	42.03	47.125	0	0.51	2.98	1.27	4.25	T	F	20.22	468.22	269	475.53116862601	0	0.3877626937377	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-09-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	52.22	42.03	47.125	0	0.5049	2.9749	1.32	4.2949	T	F	20.22	474.22	269	475.53116862601	0	0.3877626937377	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-09-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	52.3	41.19	46.745	0	0.4758	3.0358	1.59	4.6258	T	F	20.3	474.3	269	475.53116862601	0	0.39050594227528	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-09-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	362	76	44.56	41.51	43.035	0	1.8505	4.0405	2.28	6.3205	T	T	12.56	455.56	269	475.53116862601	0	0.16594249295003	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	362	76	44.56	41.68	43.12	0	1.3272	3.5172	2.39	5.9072	T	T	12.56	449.56	269	475.53116862601	0	0.16594249295003	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-09-19 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	362	76	45.44	44.31	44.875	0	0.6965	2.5265	2.43	4.9565	T	F	13.44	462.44	269	475.53116862601	0	0.18630900061283	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH