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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 22, 2020

[ Monday, September 21, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 23, 2020 ]

DAY 358 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2020 04:00:04 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.645
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 531

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 265
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 473.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 72

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-18 04:00:04FORECAST20203587259.7643.3651.5600.00810.03810.860.8981FF27.76530.76265473.6569544460900.644555901065139434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-17 23:59:18FORECAST20203587260.545.2952.89500.00210.04210.750.7921FF28.5536.5265473.6569544460900.667006125309729434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20203587260.545.2952.89500.00210.04210.740.7821FF28.5537.5265473.6569544460900.667006125309729434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-17 15:59:16FORECAST20203587255.7346.9251.32500.00610.04611.031.0761FF23.73536.73265473.6569544460900.515347707962359434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-17 12:00:03FORECAST20203587257.5947.6552.6200.03860.09860.770.8686FF25.59529.59265473.6569544460900.576048667885149434425255DRYH
2020-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20203587257.5947.6552.6200.03860.09860.70.7986FF25.59528.59265473.6569544460900.576048667885149434425255DRYH
2020-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20203587257.7345.3451.53500.04250.10250.951.0525FF25.73529.73265473.6569544460900.580563393368119434425255DRYH
2020-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20203587260.2443.9652.100.12040.16040.620.7804FF28.24522.24265473.6569544460900.659181160265569434425255DRYH
2020-09-16 20:00:03FORECAST20203587260.2743.9852.12500.12040.15040.740.8904FF28.27547.27265473.6569544460900.660087621902019434425255DRYH
2020-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20203587259.8142.2151.0100.11960.13961.111.2496FF27.81547.81265473.6569544460900.646089781158879434425255DRYH
2020-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20203587260.5645.1152.83500.00520.02520.940.9652FF28.56543.56265473.6569544460900.668801766364559434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20203587260.5845.152.8400.00520.02520.880.9052FF28.58540.58265473.6569544460900.669399454996379434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20203587259.941.9450.9200.00550.02550.950.9755FF27.9540.9265473.6569544460900.648844787366539434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20203587258.1640.8749.51500.00770.08771.021.1077FF26.16526.16265473.6569544460900.59436143222679434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20203587258.1740.949.53500.00770.08771.031.1177FF26.17541.17265473.6569544460900.594680996725449434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20203587258.1142.450.25500.00770.08771.151.2377FF26.11544.11265473.6569544460900.592762670492339434415227.5DRYL
2020-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20203587248.9439.744.3200.00290.11290.710.8229FF16.94533.94265473.6569544460900.301111167348839424425250DRYMH
2020-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20203587241.3439.740.5200.00230.11230.830.9423FF9.34521.34265473.6569544460900.1254942727879414425245DRYM
2020-09-15 04:00:05FORECAST20203587242.3140.841.55500.00040.10040.880.9804FF10.31528.31265473.6569544460900.142780176128119414425245DRYM