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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 21, 2020

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DAY 357 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/22/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 54.69°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 42.44°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 48.57°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.531 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 23 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 537 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.55 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.04 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.59 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 264 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 473.18 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 71 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 4 D₂: 4 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 82.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-22 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2020	357	71	54.69008	42.44	48.56504	0	0.55	0.04	0.59	F	F	22.69008	536.69008	264	473.18393270088	0.53136950995481	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	47.57	47.57	47.57	0.0015	0.5515	0.04	0.5915	F	F	15.57	529.57	265	473.65695444609	0.29940721534992	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.53	46.3	52.915	0.0305	0.5805	0.04	0.6205	F	F	27.53	541.53	265	473.65695444609	0.68787740751076	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.55	42.43	50.99	0.0278	0.5778	0.04	0.6178	F	F	27.55	541.55	265	473.65695444609	0.68847832347075	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 04:05:21	FORECAST	2020	357	71	53.26	43.64	48.45	0.0298	0.5798	0.04	0.6198	F	F	21.26	535.26	265	473.65695444609	0.48294461721925	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 00:00:06	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.17	45.95	52.06	0.0091	0.4091	0.04	0.4491	F	F	26.17	534.17	264	473.18393270088	0.64591478156966	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.59	45.54	52.065	0.0149	0.4349	0.04	0.4749	F	F	26.59	545.59	264	473.18393270088	0.65909403938035	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.96	46.12	52.54	0.014	0.434	0.04	0.474	F	F	26.96	545.96	264	473.18393270088	0.67054634175475	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.33	46.99	53.16	0.023	0.443	0.04	0.483	F	F	27.33	546.33	264	473.18393270088	0.68184097292497	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.9	46.37	52.635	0.0299	0.4599	0.04	0.4999	F	F	26.9	544.9	264	473.18393270088	0.66869968461818	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.66	45.92	52.79	0.0291	0.4691	0.04	0.5091	F	F	27.66	543.66	264	473.18393270088	0.69177436727607	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	60.15	46.19	53.17	0.0379	0.1179	0.04	0.1579	F	F	28.15	546.15	264	473.18393270088	0.706266983984	92	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	60.1	46.97	53.535	0.0304	0.2004	0.04	0.2404	F	F	28.1	552.1	264	473.18393270088	0.70480265983474	92	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	60.05	46.74	53.395	0.0326	0.2026	0.04	0.2426	F	F	28.05	552.05	264	473.18393270088	0.7033349873405	92	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.06	46.69	52.875	0.0055	0.1655	0.04	0.2055	F	F	27.06	550.06	264	473.18393270088	0.67361486881538	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.26	45.85	52.055	0.0063	0.2763	0.04	0.3163	F	F	26.26	544.26	264	473.18393270088	0.64875430779693	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-19 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.53	45.26	51.895	0.0059	0.3559	0.04	0.3959	F	F	26.53	546.53	264	473.18393270088	0.65722267372422	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-19 00:05:17	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.64	44.59	51.615	0.0077	0.3177	0.02	0.3377	F	F	26.64	544.64	264	473.18393270088	0.6606505302269	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.77	45.55	52.16	0.0062	0.3062	0.69	0.9962	F	F	26.77	549.77	264	473.18393270088	0.66468455174114	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	57.68	45.51	51.595	0.0027	0.2827	0.69	0.9727	F	F	25.68	548.68	264	473.18393270088	0.63031621176927	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	54.3	44.27	49.285	0.0019	0.4919	0.69	1.1819	F	F	22.3	548.3	264	473.18393270088	0.51817659886654	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	357	71	53.77	44.27	49.02	0.0019	0.2719	0.56	0.8319	F	F	21.77	548.77	264	473.18393270088	0.50022227582508	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	357	71	57.5	43.84	50.67	0.0118	0.2718	0.62	0.8918	F	F	25.5	549.5	264	473.18393270088	0.62453024419301	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 23:59:18	FORECAST	2020	357	71	57.73	43.75	50.74	0.011	0.391	0.4	0.791	F	F	25.73	554.73	264	473.18393270088	0.631918268234	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	357	71	57.73	43.8	50.765	0.0108	0.3408	0.44	0.7808	F	F	25.73	555.73	264	473.18393270088	0.631918268234	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 15:59:16	FORECAST	2020	357	71	60.5	45.67	53.085	0.0002	0.3202	0.75	1.0702	F	F	28.5	559.5	264	473.18393270088	0.71642195330816	92	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.59	47.2	52.895	0.0133	0.3233	0.51	0.8333	F	F	26.59	550.59	264	473.18393270088	0.65909403938035	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.59	47.2	52.895	0.0133	0.4433	0.32	0.7633	F	F	26.59	549.59	264	473.18393270088	0.65909403938035	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	57.55	45.13	51.34	0.0134	0.4234	0.59	1.0134	F	F	25.55	550.55	264	473.18393270088	0.62614033178104	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.03	43.06	51.045	0.0071	0.2471	0.41	0.6571	F	F	27.03	541.03	264	473.18393270088	0.67269553085082	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.05	43.06	51.055	0.0071	0.2971	0.47	0.7671	F	F	27.05	566.05	264	473.18393270088	0.67330853956252	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.83	42.29	51.06	0.0025	0.4325	0.7	1.1325	F	F	27.83	566.83	264	473.18393270088	0.69683793043756	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.97	43.6	51.285	0.0067	0.2667	0.69	0.9567	F	F	26.97	561.97	264	473.18393270088	0.67085371578892	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.98	43.59	51.285	0.0067	0.2667	0.63	0.8967	F	F	26.98	558.98	264	473.18393270088	0.67116097444573	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.23	42.4	50.315	0.0067	0.2467	0.72	0.9667	F	F	26.23	560.23	264	473.18393270088	0.64780871154426	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	55.69	41	48.345	0.0733	0.3733	0.73	1.1033	F	F	23.69	546.69	264	473.18393270088	0.56499691115171	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	55.72	41	48.36	0.0733	0.3633	0.75	1.1133	F	F	23.72	561.72	264	473.18393270088	0.56599981747242	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	56.88	42.04	49.46	0.0728	0.3828	0.85	1.2328	F	F	24.88	564.88	264	473.18393270088	0.60439312720377	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	55.2	42.11	48.655	0.098	0.208	0.61	0.818	F	F	23.2	564.2	264	473.18393270088	0.54856150452022	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	55.22	42.12	48.67	0.098	0.208	0.73	0.938	F	F	23.22	559.22	264	473.18393270088	0.54923416627989	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	357	71	57.01	43.07	50.04	0.0976	0.1876	0.79	0.9776	F	F	25.01	565.01	264	473.18393270088	0.60864058208044	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.43	44.91	52.17	0.0092	0.1192	0.77	0.8892	F	F	27.43	562.43	264	473.18393270088	0.68486535583512	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	59.09	43.4	51.245	0.0074	0.1474	0.65	0.7974	F	F	27.09	568.09	264	473.18393270088	0.67453315405038	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	357	71	58.63	43.13	50.88	0.0074	0.1074	0.57	0.6774	F	F	26.63	577.63	264	473.18393270088	0.66033945006728	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-14 11:59:27	FORECAST	2020	357	71	50.77	42.2	46.485	0.0067	0.1867	0.71	0.8967	F	F	18.77	560.77	264	473.18393270088	0.39964095308066	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	357	71	45.81	41.63	43.72	0	0.18	0.7	0.88	F	F	13.81	549.81	264	473.18393270088	0.24963900997894	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-14 03:59:29	FORECAST	2020	357	71	46.1	44.65	45.375	0	0.2	0.77	0.97	F	F	14.1	556.1	264	473.18393270088	0.25752707205785	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH