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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 21, 2020

[ Sunday, September 20, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 22, 2020 ]

DAY 357 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2020 04:00:04 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.67°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.625
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 550

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.62 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 264
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 473.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 71

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-18 04:00:04FORECAST20203577157.543.8450.6700.01180.27180.620.8918FF25.5549.5264473.1839327008800.624530244193019234425255DRYH
2020-09-17 23:59:18FORECAST20203577157.7343.7550.7400.0110.3910.40.791FF25.73554.73264473.1839327008800.6319182682349234425255DRYH
2020-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20203577157.7343.850.76500.01080.34080.440.7808FF25.73555.73264473.1839327008800.6319182682349234425255DRYH
2020-09-17 15:59:16FORECAST20203577160.545.6753.08500.00020.32020.751.0702FF28.5559.5264473.1839327008800.716421953308169244425260DRYH
2020-09-17 12:00:03FORECAST20203577158.5947.252.89500.01330.32330.510.8333FF26.59550.59264473.1839327008800.659094039380359234425255DRYH
2020-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20203577158.5947.252.89500.01330.44330.320.7633FF26.59549.59264473.1839327008800.659094039380359234425255DRYH
2020-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20203577157.5545.1351.3400.01340.42340.591.0134FF25.55550.55264473.1839327008800.626140331781049234425255DRYH
2020-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20203577159.0343.0651.04500.00710.24710.410.6571FF27.03541.03264473.1839327008800.672695530850829234425255DRYH
2020-09-16 20:00:03FORECAST20203577159.0543.0651.05500.00710.29710.470.7671FF27.05566.05264473.1839327008800.673308539562529234425255DRYH
2020-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20203577159.8342.2951.0600.00250.43250.71.1325FF27.83566.83264473.1839327008800.696837930437569234425255DRYH
2020-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20203577158.9743.651.28500.00670.26670.690.9567FF26.97561.97264473.1839327008800.670853715788929234425255DRYH
2020-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20203577158.9843.5951.28500.00670.26670.630.8967FF26.98558.98264473.1839327008800.671160974445739234425255DRYH
2020-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20203577158.2342.450.31500.00670.24670.720.9667FF26.23560.23264473.1839327008800.647808711544269234425255DRYH
2020-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20203577155.694148.34500.07330.37330.731.1033FF23.69546.69264473.1839327008800.564996911151719234425255DRYH
2020-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20203577155.724148.3600.07330.36330.751.1133FF23.72561.72264473.1839327008800.565999817472429234425255DRYH
2020-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20203577156.8842.0449.4600.07280.38280.851.2328FF24.88564.88264473.1839327008800.604393127203779234425255DRYH
2020-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20203577155.242.1148.65500.0980.2080.610.818FF23.2564.2264473.1839327008800.548561504520229234425255DRYH
2020-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20203577155.2242.1248.6700.0980.2080.730.938FF23.22559.22264473.1839327008800.549234166279899234425255DRYH
2020-09-15 04:00:05FORECAST20203577157.0143.0750.0400.09760.18760.790.9776FF25.01565.01264473.1839327008800.608640582080449234425255DRYH
2020-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20203577159.4344.9152.1700.00920.11920.770.8892FF27.43562.43264473.1839327008800.684865355835129234425255DRYH
2020-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20203577159.0943.451.24500.00740.14740.650.7974FF27.09568.09264473.1839327008800.674533154050389234425255DRYH
2020-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20203577158.6343.1350.8800.00740.10740.570.6774FF26.63577.63264473.1839327008800.660339450067289234425255DRYH
2020-09-14 11:59:27FORECAST20203577150.7742.246.48500.00670.18670.710.8967FF18.77560.77264473.1839327008800.399640953080669224425250DRYMH
2020-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20203577145.8141.6343.72000.180.70.88FF13.81549.81264473.1839327008800.249639009978949224425250DRYMH
2020-09-14 03:59:29FORECAST20203577146.144.6545.375000.20.770.97FF14.1556.1264473.1839327008800.257527072057859224425250DRYMH