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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 20, 2020

[ Saturday, September 19, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, September 21, 2020 ]

DAY 356 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2020 04:00:04 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.585
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 563

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 263
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 70

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 82.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-18 04:00:04FORECAST20203567056.8545.7451.29500.01980.86980.010.8798FF24.85562.85263472.7091100534800.585111901126749134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 23:59:18FORECAST20203567058.0346.1252.07500.03470.77470.010.7847FF26.03568.03263472.7091100534800.625705604132459134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20203567058.8746.1152.4900.03230.76230.010.7723FF26.87568.87263472.7091100534800.653804285683639134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 15:59:16FORECAST20203567058.9646.4752.71500.04041.06040.011.0704FF26.96569.96263472.7091100534800.6567684314169691344452110DRYVH
2020-09-17 12:00:03FORECAST20203567052.1146.4649.28500.05060.81060.010.8206FF20.11563.11263472.7091100534800.417284202659519124435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20203567053.6246.4650.0400.04590.72590.020.7459FF21.62561.62263472.7091100534800.47057402867039124435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20203567058.6944.8651.77500.05040.97040.031.0004FF26.69563.69263472.7091100534800.647847816887129134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20203567060.7443.4352.08500.03030.62030.030.6503FF28.74552.74263472.7091100534800.713224424538469144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 20:00:03FORECAST20203567060.7542.7351.7400.0190.6990.060.759FF28.75577.75263472.7091100534800.713528842649069144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20203567060.8744.6452.75500.02031.08030.051.1303FF28.87577.87263472.7091100534800.7171698591146791444452120DRYVH
2020-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20203567061.9545.9453.94500.01310.88310.070.9531FF29.95573.95263472.7091100534800.74890160008669144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20203567061.9645.9453.9500.01310.83310.060.8931FF29.96570.96263472.7091100534800.749186370196269144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20203567062.0145.1353.5700.01270.91270.050.9627FF30.01573.01263472.7091100534800.750607655929679144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20203567058.2743.8451.05500.01350.99350.041.0335FF26.27562.27263472.7091100534800.6338098521804991344452110DRYVH
2020-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20203567058.2943.8451.06500.01350.96350.081.0435FF26.29577.29263472.7091100534800.634482577908299134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20203567059.6743.651.63500.01211.07210.091.1621FF27.67578.67263472.7091100534800.6798027759763591344452110DRYVH
2020-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20203567062.8243.553.1600.00580.51580.20.7158FF30.82579.82263472.7091100534800.773025156196699144435290DRYVH
2020-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20203567062.8543.553.17500.00580.61580.220.8358FF30.85574.85263472.7091100534800.7738330569499144435290DRYVH
2020-09-15 04:00:05FORECAST20203567064.0442.9853.5100.00360.53360.350.8836FF32.04579.04263472.7091100534800.804546145568729144435290DRYVH
2020-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20203567059.745.1852.4400.01470.51470.370.8847FF27.7573.7263472.7091100534800.68076175361839134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20203567061.6645.4753.56500.01660.50660.280.7866FF29.66579.66263472.7091100534800.740569530341419144435290DRYVH
2020-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20203567064.0544.5954.3200.01410.44410.230.6741FF32.05590.05263472.7091100534800.804793036419269144425260DRYH
2020-09-14 11:59:27FORECAST20203567063.3243.653.4600.00970.41970.470.8897FF31.32581.32263472.7091100534800.786276525411139144425260DRYH
2020-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20203567062.5443.452.9700.00970.41970.460.8797FF30.54574.54263472.7091100534800.76540687784789144425260DRYH
2020-09-14 03:59:29FORECAST20203567062.0844.6953.38500.00980.46980.50.9698FF30.08581.08263472.7091100534800.752590252076719144425260DRYH
2020-09-14 00:05:08FORECAST20203567058.9141.2850.09500.00290.86290.351.2129FF26.91570.91263472.7091100534800.655122859660799134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20203567058.9141.5150.2100.00290.86290.391.2529FF26.91587.91263472.7091100534800.655122859660799134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20203567060.3540.1250.23500.00170.91170.431.3417FF28.35589.35263472.7091100534800.701234379949949144435290DRYVH
2020-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20203567052.1741.1546.6600.00140.42140.430.8514FF20.17583.17263472.7091100534800.419379521163869124425250DRYMH
2020-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20203567045.8244.7745.29500.03340.59340.431.0234FF13.82574.82263472.7091100534800.220257570114189114435267.5DRYH
2020-09-13 04:00:03FORECAST20203567044.9844.8244.900.02120.65120.421.0712FF12.98573.98263472.7091100534800.198648095245319114435267.5DRYH