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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 16, 2020

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DAY 352 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/17/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 68.77°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 53.88°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 61.33°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.851 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 37 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 568 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 259 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.79 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 66 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 60.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-17 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	352	66	68.77004	53.88008	61.32506	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	36.77004	567.77004	259	470.791672921	0.85110184560691	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	53.84	53.84	53.84	0.0001	0.0001	0.19	0.1901	F	F	21.84	552.84	260	471.27376800312	0.41266458227977	92	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.35	55.29	64.32	0.02	0.02	0.19	0.21	F	F	41.35	572.35	260	471.27376800312	0.9234701121293	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	69.55	52.96	61.255	0.0247	0.0247	0.19	0.2147	F	F	37.55	568.55	260	471.27376800312	0.86588441777305	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	69.17	54.64	61.905	0.0104	0.0104	0.19	0.2004	F	F	37.17	568.17	260	471.27376800312	0.85881274412154	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.26	54.57	63.915	0.0101	0.0101	0.19	0.2001	F	F	41.26	561.26	259	470.791672921	0.92236825352318	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.56	52.83	63.195	0.0108	0.0408	0.19	0.2308	F	F	41.56	575.56	259	470.791672921	0.92599496440267	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.5	54.01	63.755	0.0095	0.0395	0.19	0.2295	F	F	41.5	575.5	259	470.791672921	0.92528013859294	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	74.32	55.22	64.77	0.0072	0.0372	0.19	0.2272	F	F	42.32	576.32	259	470.791672921	0.93460447856631	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	74.33	55.33	64.83	0.0064	0.0564	0.19	0.2464	F	F	42.33	571.33	259	470.791672921	0.9347123650511	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	352	66	74.36	55.97	65.165	0.008	0.068	0.19	0.258	F	F	42.36	574.36	259	470.791672921	0.93503519892305	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	74.03	55.34	64.685	0.013	0.103	0.19	0.293	F	F	42.03	569.03	259	470.791672921	0.93141544949295	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.95	55.55	64.75	0.0054	0.0854	0.19	0.2754	F	F	41.95	580.95	259	470.791672921	0.93051501308849	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.99	55.95	64.97	0.0074	0.0674	0.19	0.2574	F	F	41.99	581.99	259	470.791672921	0.93096635888857	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-14 11:59:27	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.91	55.62	64.765	0.0059	0.1659	0.19	0.3559	F	F	41.91	579.91	259	470.791672921	0.93006140600028	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.47	55.49	64.48	0.0064	0.1464	0.19	0.3364	F	F	41.47	578.47	259	470.791672921	0.92492076241975	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 03:59:29	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.47	53.79	63.63	0.0249	0.1849	0.19	0.3749	F	F	41.47	574.47	259	470.791672921	0.92492076241975	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 00:05:08	FORECAST	2020	352	66	72.87	53.54	63.205	0.024	0.244	0.19	0.434	F	F	40.87	574.87	259	470.791672921	0.91745449135412	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	72.77	53.75	63.26	0.0417	0.2717	0.2	0.4717	F	F	40.77	591.77	259	470.791672921	0.91615774840078	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	71.85	54.07	62.96	0.081	0.311	0.2	0.511	F	F	39.85	589.85	259	470.791672921	0.90350478745536	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	68.02	53.74	60.88	0.0564	0.3064	0.2	0.5064	F	F	36.02	584.02	259	470.791672921	0.83589826397631	92	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	352	66	66.94	53.36	60.15	0.0742	0.3042	0.21	0.5142	F	F	34.94	582.94	259	470.791672921	0.81230416007625	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	72.15	52.67	62.41	0.0174	0.2874	0.2	0.4874	F	F	40.15	583.15	259	470.791672921	0.90777579763327	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.01	52.83	62.92	0.0125	0.3225	0.2	0.5225	F	F	41.01	580.01	259	470.791672921	0.91924457477938	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.01	51.74	62.375	0.0126	0.6326	0.21	0.8426	F	F	41.01	599.01	259	470.791672921	0.91924457477938	92	5	3	5	3	5	1	195	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 15:59:34	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.92	53.92	63.92	0.0223	0.6623	0.21	0.8723	F	F	41.92	598.92	259	470.791672921	0.93017502010048	92	5	3	4	3	5	1	180	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	352	66	74.15	53.06	63.605	0.0129	0.3529	0.2	0.5529	F	F	42.15	595.15	259	470.791672921	0.9327492513681	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 07:50:39	FORECAST	2020	352	66	74.16	53.04	63.6	0.0129	0.2129	0.2	0.4129	F	F	42.16	590.16	259	470.791672921	0.93285949303698	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 04:05:07	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.9	52.75	63.325	0.0076	0.4276	0.2	0.6276	F	F	41.9	597.9	259	470.791672921	0.92994765019001	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.92	53.68	63.8	0.0216	0.2016	0.2	0.4016	F	F	41.92	590.92	259	470.791672921	0.93017502010048	92	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	71.53	52.5	62.015	0.0459	0.3459	0.2	0.5459	F	F	39.53	605.53	259	470.791672921	0.89879129400276	92	5	3	5	2	5	1	130	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	73.97	53.48	63.725	0.0322	0.2022	0.19	0.3922	F	F	41.97	606.97	259	470.791672921	0.93074096826926	92	5	3	5	2	5	1	130	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	69.26	52.93	61.095	0.0532	0.4532	0.19	0.6432	F	F	37.26	606.26	259	470.791672921	0.86050997349961	92	5	3	5	2	5	1	130	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 07:50:44	FORECAST	2020	352	66	61.57	50.07	55.82	0.4956	0.7556	0.2	0.9556	F	F	29.57	599.57	259	470.791672921	0.66732373416387	92	3	3	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 03:59:39	FORECAST	2020	352	66	61.57	50.08	55.825	0.4956	0.7556	0.19	0.9456	F	F	29.57	599.57	259	470.791672921	0.66732373416387	92	3	3	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	61.57	50.09	55.83	0.4956	0.7556	0.19	0.9456	F	F	29.57	602.57	259	470.791672921	0.66732373416387	92	3	3	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	65.96	51.38	58.67	0.4723	0.8523	0.2	1.0523	F	F	33.96	623.96	259	470.791672921	0.78917717699758	92	4	3	5	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 16:05:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	65.96	51.38	58.67	0.4723	0.8523	0.2	1.0523	F	F	33.96	623.96	259	470.791672921	0.78917717699758	92	4	3	5	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	65.96	51.39	58.675	0.4723	0.8523	0.2	1.0523	F	F	33.96	623.96	259	470.791672921	0.78917717699758	92	4	3	5	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	61.51	49.19	55.35	0.4708	1.1108	0.2	1.3108	F	F	29.51	614.51	259	470.791672921	0.66547952774301	92	3	3	5	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 03:59:41	FORECAST	2020	352	66	60.95	49.3	55.125	0.4708	1.1108	0.19	1.3008	F	F	28.95	611.95	259	470.791672921	0.64807937352864	92	3	3	5	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	57.69	43.71	50.7	0.0591	0.5991	0.2	0.7991	F	F	25.69	611.69	259	470.791672921	0.54167348027791	92	3	3	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	57.7	46.25	51.975	0.0576	0.5976	0.19	0.7876	F	F	25.7	624.7	259	470.791672921	0.54200875293115	92	3	3	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	54.34	41.91	48.125	0.027	0.757	0.19	0.947	F	F	22.34	614.34	259	470.791672921	0.42918749449169	92	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	352	66	56.37	45.32	50.845	0.0041	0.3741	0.19	0.5641	F	F	24.37	614.37	259	470.791672921	0.49724861818065	92	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	352	66	47.36	45.33	46.345	0.0041	0.3741	0.2	0.5741	F	F	15.36	605.36	259	470.791672921	0.22114301840717	92	1	3	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-09-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	352	66	47.21	46.69	46.95	0.0023	0.5623	0.2	0.7623	F	F	15.21	606.21	259	470.791672921	0.21739588009296	92	1	3	5	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H