Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 28, 2020

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DAY 333 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/29/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.99°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.28°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.13°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.587 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 32 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 543 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.80 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 240 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 461.28 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 47 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-29 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	333	47	63.98996	48.27992	56.13494	0	0	0.01	0.79	0.8	F	F	31.98996	542.98996	240	461.27503476881	0	0.58698540913466	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	51.84	51.84	51.84	0	0.0004	0.0104	0.79	0.8004	F	F	19.84	530.84	241	461.79322445274	0	0.17937669320125	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-28 11:50:40	FORECAST	2020	333	47	71.58	52.03	61.805	0	0.0069	0.0169	0.79	0.8069	F	F	39.58	550.58	241	461.79322445274	0	0.82393413643321	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.49	49.45	59.97	0	0.0141	0.0241	0.79	0.8141	F	F	38.49	549.49	241	461.79322445274	0	0.79627008347828	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-28 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	333	47	69.61	50.51	60.06	0	0.008	0.018	0.79	0.808	F	F	37.61	548.61	241	461.79322445274	0	0.77215529999378	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	333	47	71.04	50.27	60.655	0	0.0046	0.0146	0.79	0.8046	F	F	39.04	542.04	240	461.27503476881	0	0.81053864627179	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-27 20:04:41	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.8	48.43	59.615	0	0.0053	0.0253	0.79	0.8153	F	F	38.8	556.8	240	461.27503476881	0	0.80438941934839	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.56	48.65	59.605	0	0.0027	0.0227	0.79	0.8127	F	F	38.56	556.56	240	461.27503476881	0	0.79812079649974	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-27 12:04:41	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.88	50.42	60.65	0	0.0012	0.0212	0.79	0.8112	F	F	38.88	556.88	240	461.27503476881	0	0.80645246827456	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.92	50.23	60.575	0	0.0008	0.0208	0.79	0.8108	F	F	38.92	556.92	240	461.27503476881	0	0.80747900808448	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-27 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.74	50.19	60.465	0	0.0007	0.0207	0.79	0.8107	F	F	38.74	555.74	240	461.27503476881	0	0.80283342426992	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.68	49.61	60.145	0	0.0024	0.0124	0.79	0.8024	F	F	38.68	541.68	240	461.27503476881	0	0.80126997950837	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.68	49.61	60.145	0	0.0024	0.0224	0.79	0.8124	F	F	38.68	562.68	240	461.27503476881	0	0.80126997950837	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.64	49.76	60.2	0	0.0025	0.0125	0.79	0.8025	F	F	38.64	561.64	240	461.27503476881	0	0.80022355105979	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	333	47	69.85	49.17	59.51	0	0.0026	0.0126	0.79	0.8026	F	F	37.85	560.85	240	461.27503476881	0	0.77888639084802	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	69.89	49.06	59.475	0	0.002	0.012	0.79	0.802	F	F	37.89	560.89	240	461.27503476881	0	0.77999709225719	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	333	47	69.81	48.95	59.38	0	0.0024	0.0124	0.79	0.8024	F	F	37.81	559.81	240	461.27503476881	0	0.77777249367875	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.43	49.72	60.075	0	0.0044	0.0144	0.79	0.8044	F	F	38.43	552.43	240	461.27503476881	0	0.79467575252288	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	71.05	50.16	60.605	0	0.0037	0.0037	0.8	0.8037	F	F	39.05	569.05	240	461.27503476881	0	0.81079226127326	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	71.09	50.01	60.55	0	0.003	0.013	0.8	0.813	F	F	39.09	569.09	240	461.27503476881	0	0.81180463401777	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	65.89	48.87	57.38	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.8	0.8008	F	F	33.89	564.89	240	461.27503476881	0	0.6545644497289	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	333	47	66.56	49.56	58.06	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.8	0.8006	F	F	34.56	565.56	240	461.27503476881	0	0.67738469908975	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	333	47	71.58	49.82	60.7	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.8	0.8002	F	F	39.58	570.58	240	461.27503476881	0	0.82393413643321	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.34	48.64	60.49	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.8	0.8014	F	F	40.34	564.34	240	461.27503476881	0	0.84174561731191	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.36	47.88	60.12	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.81	0.8114	F	F	40.36	574.36	240	461.27503476881	0	0.84219783137043	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	333	47	71.78	49.78	60.78	0	0.0014	0.0114	0.8	0.8114	F	F	39.78	578.78	240	461.27503476881	0	0.82873976583062	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-24 11:50:54	FORECAST	2020	333	47	71.26	49.85	60.555	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	39.26	574.26	240	461.27503476881	0	0.81606989852218	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	71.28	49.85	60.565	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	39.28	574.28	240	461.27503476881	0	0.81656771539296	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.1	49.46	59.78	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	38.1	578.1	240	461.27503476881	0	0.78577559836246	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-23 23:51:20	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.66	49.4	60.03	0	0.0003	0.0003	0.8	0.8003	F	F	38.66	589.66	240	461.27503476881	0	0.8007471781319	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.68	49.4	60.04	0	0.0003	0.0003	0.81	0.8103	F	F	38.68	585.68	240	461.27503476881	0	0.80126997950837	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-23 15:58:11	FORECAST	2020	333	47	68.24	49.82	59.03	0	0.0003	0.0003	0.81	0.8103	F	F	36.24	585.24	240	461.27503476881	0	0.73160862215705	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.02	50.19	61.105	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.81	0.8102	F	F	40.02	588.02	240	461.27503476881	0	0.83439497457893	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.04	50.2	61.12	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.8	0.8002	F	F	40.04	588.04	240	461.27503476881	0	0.83486074196283	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	333	47	73.85	51.09	62.47	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	41.85	592.85	240	461.27503476881	0	0.87351272269394	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.83	50.85	61.84	0	0.0023	0.0023	0.79	0.7923	F	F	40.83	583.83	240	461.27503476881	0	0.85258103751517	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	333	47	74.51	52.59	63.55	0	0.0036	0.0036	0.8	0.8036	F	F	42.51	604.51	240	461.27503476881	0	0.88590239749303	94	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.04	50.42	61.23	0	0.0036	0.0036	0.8	0.8036	F	F	40.04	605.04	240	461.27503476881	0	0.83486074196283	94	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-22 12:04:32	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.5	50	61.25	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.8	0.8016	F	F	40.5	600.5	240	461.27503476881	0	0.84533960654794	94	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-22 08:00:05	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.52	50	61.26	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.81	0.8116	F	F	40.52	596.52	240	461.27503476881	0	0.84578504287885	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-22 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	333	47	71.83	49.65	60.74	0	0.0307	0.0307	0.81	0.8407	F	F	39.83	598.83	240	461.27503476881	0	0.82992797721979	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.19	51.63	61.91	0	0.0011	0.0011	0.1	0.1011	F	F	40.19	599.19	240	461.27503476881	0	0.8383270048539	94	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	333	47	72.2	53.4	62.8	0	0.0007	0.0007	0.42	0.4207	F	F	40.2	609.2	240	461.27503476881	0	0.8385563950048	94	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-21 15:51:47	FORECAST	2020	333	47	70.42	51.32	60.87	0	0.0007	0.0007	0.41	0.4107	F	F	38.42	603.42	240	461.27503476881	0	0.7944093134527	94	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	333	47	65.06	50.78	57.92	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.44	0.4406	F	F	33.06	594.06	240	461.27503476881	0	0.62550469171861	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	333	47	52.36	50.78	51.57	0	0	0	0.46	0.46	F	F	20.36	584.36	240	461.27503476881	0	0.19241312862252	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	333	47	50.73	50.27	50.5	0	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	18.73	584.73	240	461.27503476881	0	0.15345499015537	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L