MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 18, 2020

[ Monday, August 17, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 19, 2020 ]

DAY 323 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/19/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.736
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 522

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 230
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 37

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-19 04:00:03OBSERVATION20203233769.4500852.1099660.780020000.10.1FF37.45008522.45008230455.98338142343 00.7356141733704292 43415155DRYH
2020-08-19 00:00:03FORECAST20203233752.1152.1152.1100.00420.00420.10.1042FF20.11505.11231456.5216412326700.133478673335819213415220DRYL
2020-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20203233775.4755.1465.30500.01460.01460.10.1146FF43.47528.47231456.5216412326700.891445870312599253415160DRYH
2020-08-18 07:51:36FORECAST20203233773.2855.2964.28500.00490.00490.10.1049FF41.28526.28231456.5216412326700.844776884818889243415155DRYH
2020-08-18 04:00:03FORECAST20203233769.0255.262.1100.02930.02930.10.1293FF37.02522.02231456.5216412326700.721306743197729243415155DRYH
2020-08-18 00:00:03FORECAST20203233769.4954.461.94500.02280.03280.10.1328FF37.49507.49230455.9833814234300.736922999121889243415155DRYH
2020-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20203233773.1453.9763.55500.01040.03040.10.1304FF41.14528.14230455.9833814234300.841400241689959243415155DRYH
2020-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20203233772.7253.7263.2200.01050.03050.10.1305FF40.72527.72230455.9833814234300.830984275106339243415155DRYH
2020-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20203233772.1853.5362.85500.01140.03140.10.1314FF40.18527.18230455.9833814234300.816963370539859243415155DRYH
2020-08-17 08:00:03FORECAST20203233772.8654.3963.62500.00090.02090.10.1209FF40.86525.86230455.9833814234300.834503916826259243415155DRYH
2020-08-17 04:00:05FORECAST20203233772.7154.3663.535000.020.10.12FF40.71526.71230455.9833814234300.830731050218649243415155DRYH
2020-08-17 00:00:01FORECAST20203233772.2754.5963.4300.01380.05380.10.1538FF40.27513.27230455.9833814234300.819349156712959243415155DRYH
2020-08-16 19:51:43FORECAST20203233772.1253.9463.0300.01380.05380.10.1538FF40.12526.12230455.9833814234300.815362002018799243415155DRYH
2020-08-16 16:00:04FORECAST20203233772.1154.0363.0700.01380.05380.10.1538FF40.11526.11230455.9833814234300.815094264738959243415155DRYH
2020-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20203233774.8854.6564.76500.01980.04980.10.1498FF42.88529.88230455.9833814234300.879998026388029253415160DRYH
2020-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20203233775.4855.4465.4600.00690.02690.10.1269FF43.48529.48230455.9833814234300.891632907369819253415160DRYH
2020-08-16 03:52:03FORECAST20203233775.154.9565.02500.01930.04930.10.1493FF43.1530.1230455.9833814234300.884362059562889253415160DRYH
2020-08-16 00:00:03FORECAST20203233776.0855.6565.86500.02140.05140.10.1514FF44.08531.08230455.9833814234300.902435606043379253415160DRYH
2020-08-15 20:00:03FORECAST20203233775.7455.4965.61500.02160.04160.120.1616FF43.74546.74230455.9833814234300.896414988725559253415160DRYH
2020-08-15 16:00:03FORECAST20203233775.9255.6965.80500.02230.03230.120.1523FF43.92546.92230455.9833814234300.899635022157069253415160DRYH
2020-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20203233770.2354.1362.1800.03670.12670.120.2467FF38.23540.23230455.9833814234300.7605720249490792434251110DRYVH
2020-08-15 08:00:02FORECAST20203233770.2154.1362.1700.04020.15020.120.2702FF38.21536.21230455.9833814234300.7599484741823592434251110DRYVH
2020-08-15 03:52:05FORECAST20203233774.6754.2764.4700.04560.15560.120.2756FF42.67545.67230455.9833814234300.8757256085201192534251120DRYVH
2020-08-15 00:00:02FORECAST20203233775.4454.6765.05500.05390.10390.110.2139FF43.44547.44230455.9833814234300.8908833705841592534251120DRYVH
2020-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20203233775.4354.6765.0500.05970.08970.120.2097FF43.43561.43230455.9833814234300.890695407500289253415160DRYH
2020-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20203233775.3754.364.83500.06890.09890.120.2189FF43.37561.37230455.9833814234300.8895627589673892534251120DRYVH
2020-08-14 12:00:02FORECAST20203233777.655.6566.62500.05230.08230.120.2023FF45.6559.6230455.9833814234300.926244282375989253415160DRYH
2020-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20203233777.655.6566.62500.05230.09230.120.2123FF45.6556.6230455.9833814234300.9262442823759892534251120DRYVH
2020-08-14 04:00:04FORECAST20203233776.9555.3266.13500.05250.08250.110.1925FF44.95558.95230455.9833814234300.916669512941569253415160DRYH
2020-08-14 00:00:02FORECAST20203233774.4954.8764.6800.00090.03090.110.1409FF42.49544.49230455.9833814234300.871980033732079253415160DRYH
2020-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20203233774.554.8664.6800.00090.04090.110.1509FF42.5562.5230455.9833814234300.872190150476379253415160DRYH
2020-08-13 16:00:03FORECAST20203233778.4257.3667.8900.00090.08090.110.1909FF46.42566.42230455.9833814234300.937099054163249253415160DRYH
2020-08-13 12:00:03FORECAST20203233775.355.2165.25500.00080.05080.110.1608FF43.3559.3230455.9833814234300.888230763942669253415160DRYH
2020-08-13 07:51:54FORECAST20203233775.3155.2165.2600.00080.06080.120.1808FF43.31554.31230455.9833814234300.888421747100739253415160DRYH
2020-08-13 04:00:03FORECAST20203233777.2255.0766.14500.00080.05080.110.1608FF45.22567.22230455.9833814234300.920754048663919253415160DRYH
2020-08-13 00:00:03FORECAST20203233780.7258.2469.4800.00150.06150.110.1715FF48.72565.72230455.9833814234300.961002265104969253415160DRYH
2020-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20203233780.7458.2469.4900.00150.06150.120.1815FF48.74578.74230455.9833814234300.961172048780299253415160DRYH
2020-08-12 16:00:04FORECAST20203233779.7257.7968.75500.00150.06150.120.1815FF47.72575.72230455.9833814234300.951715490243599253415160DRYH
2020-08-12 12:00:02FORECAST20203233771.949.2760.58500.01410.07410.120.1941FF39.9560.9230455.9833814234300.809416292787479243415155DRYH
2020-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20203233771.9149.2660.58500.01410.07410.110.1841FF39.91562.91230455.9833814234300.809689070457589243415155DRYH
2020-08-12 04:00:03FORECAST20203233769.6149.3959.500.01380.07380.120.1938FF37.61561.61230455.9833814234300.740837337390769243415155DRYH
2020-08-12 00:00:04FORECAST20203233775.0756.1665.61500.00030.09030.130.2203FF43.07553.07230455.9833814234300.8837736729940892534251120DRYVH
2020-08-11 19:52:17FORECAST20203233775.156.1565.62500.00030.09030.130.2203FF43.1572.1230455.9833814234300.8843620595628892534251120DRYVH
2020-08-11 16:00:03FORECAST20203233774.5255.2464.8800.00030.09030.130.2203FF42.52568.52230455.9833814234300.8726096668191792534251120DRYVH
2020-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20203233771.857.4664.6300.00030.02030.130.1503FF39.8551.8230455.9833814234300.806675362270769243415155DRYH
2020-08-11 08:00:03FORECAST20203233759.4357.6358.5300.00030.02030.120.1403FF27.43546.43230455.9833814234300.353668870217479223415222.5DRYL
2020-08-11 04:00:03FORECAST20203233759.6758.8359.25000.020.150.17FF27.67554.67230455.9833814234300.362661091303069223415222.5DRYL