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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 5, 2020

[ Tuesday, August 4, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 6, 2020 ]

DAY 310 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/04/2020 08:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.43°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.648
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 606

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 217
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 24

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 1
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20203102468.2750.5959.434.67812533333330.01490.044900.0449FF36.27606.27217450.557876459942.10776621600010.647885410126539432514140DRYM
2020-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20203102467.9950.3159.154.64363066666670.01420.044200.0442FF35.99605.99217450.544966300092.09216442222340.637229910993029432514220DRYL
2020-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20203102468.4950.459.4452.21626666666670.00380.033800.0338FF36.49606.49217449.633641666660.996508052237760.65617741400679432514140DRYM
2020-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20203102469.1750.6259.8951.6948560.00430.034300.0343FF37.17606.17217449.437150122050.761731250507260.681321839018419432514140DRYM
2020-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20203102469.3550.7760.061.6876970.00860.038600.0386FF37.35607.35217449.434450469830.758509173754580.687846272101439432514140DRYM
2020-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20203102467.7851.1559.46500.00940.019400.0194FF35.78591.78217448.7966496492100.629167455268619432415222.5DRYL
2020-08-03 19:58:25FORECAST20203102467.5751.0459.30500.0060.05600.056FF35.57606.57217448.7966496492100.621047906979639432515225DRYL
2020-08-03 15:52:40FORECAST20203102467.6351.159.36500.010.0500.05FF35.63607.63217448.7966496492100.623373410281529432515225DRYL
2020-08-03 11:58:24FORECAST20203102468.6151.8460.22500.00820.048200.0482FF36.61607.61217448.7966496492100.660669182768269432515150DRYMH
2020-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20203102468.5351.5960.0600.00590.045900.0459FF36.53602.53217448.7966496492100.657677158187349432515150DRYMH
2020-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20203102468.5351.2359.8800.00760.037600.0376FF36.53607.53217448.7966496492100.657677158187349432515150DRYMH
2020-08-03 00:04:00FORECAST2020310246951.960.4500.00860.038600.0386FF37593217448.7966496492100.675107823551269432415145DRYM
2020-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20203102469.0651.660.3300.01050.04050.010.0505FF37.06609.06217448.7966496492100.67730668506049432515150DRYMH
2020-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20203102468.4251.5159.96500.01270.06270.010.0727FF36.42609.42217448.7966496492100.653546954502529432515150DRYMH
2020-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20203102463.9252.358.1100.00240.02240.010.0324FF31.92604.92217448.7966496492100.474494648756719422515222.5DRYL
2020-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20203102463.9252.358.1100.00270.01270.020.0327FF31.92603.92217448.7966496492100.474494648756719422515222.5DRYL
2020-08-02 03:52:45FORECAST20203102470.8852.161.4900.00240.01240.010.0224FF38.88611.88217448.7966496492100.74079289943379442515155DRYH
2020-08-02 00:00:05FORECAST20203102471.6352.1961.9100.00020.01020.010.0202FF39.63616.63217448.7966496492100.764941190658659442515155DRYH
2020-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20203102471.6352.1961.9100.00030.01030.020.0303FF39.63632.63217448.7966496492100.764941190658659442515155DRYH
2020-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20203102471.3652.962.1300.00030.00030.010.0103FF39.36633.36217448.7966496492100.756393523930289442515155DRYH
2020-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20203102471.6452.9862.3100.00160.00160.010.0116FF39.64629.64217448.7966496492100.765254562250239442515155DRYH
2020-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20203102471.6452.9862.3100.00160.00160.020.0216FF39.64624.64217448.7966496492100.765254562250239442515155DRYH
2020-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20203102471.4953.262.34500.00160.00160.020.0216FF39.49634.49217448.7966496492100.760529850024619442515155DRYH
2020-07-31 23:52:33FORECAST20203102470.5853.4962.03500.00210.01210.030.0421FF38.58630.58217448.7966496492100.730787022792949442515155DRYH
2020-07-31 19:52:12FORECAST20203102470.5853.4962.03500.00210.01210.030.0421FF38.58628.58217448.7966496492100.730787022792949442515155DRYH
2020-07-31 16:00:04FORECAST20203102471.3253.6662.4900.00210.01210.020.0321FF39.32631.32217448.7966496492100.755113101541969442515155DRYH
2020-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20203102469.7552.3961.0700.00060.05060.020.0706FF37.75619.75217448.7966496492100.702133756470619442515155DRYH
2020-07-31 08:03:55FORECAST20203102469.7552.3961.0700.00060.07060.010.0806FF37.75617.75217448.7966496492100.702133756470619442515155DRYH
2020-07-31 04:00:03FORECAST20203102470.0252.4661.2400.00060.06060.030.0906FF38.02620.02217448.7966496492100.711606090403649442515155DRYH
2020-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20203102470.2752.8561.5600.0010.0510.040.091FF38.27613.27217448.7966496492100.720248224270419442515155DRYH
2020-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20203102470.2752.8561.5600.0010.0510.050.101FF38.27626.27217448.7966496492100.720248224270419442515155DRYH
2020-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20203102471.6353.4662.54500.0010.0510.050.101FF39.63630.63217448.7966496492100.764941190658659442515155DRYH
2020-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20203102474.3152.5363.4200.00020.10020.040.1402FF42.31625.31217448.7966496492100.8403033043681194425251110DRYVH
2020-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20203102474.3152.5363.4200.00020.10020.040.1402FF42.31624.31217448.7966496492100.8403033043681194425251110DRYVH
2020-07-30 03:52:17FORECAST20203102475.2652.9164.08500.00020.07020.040.1102FF43.26632.26217448.7966496492100.862729869735699452515160DRYH
2020-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20203102467.4249.0658.2400.00280.18280.090.2728FF35.42621.42217448.7966496492100.615215122654799432525250DRYMH
2020-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20203102467.4249.0658.2400.00280.18280.070.2528FF35.42638.42217448.7966496492100.615215122654799432525250DRYMH
2020-07-29 15:58:28FORECAST20203102469.2950.6659.97500.00180.02180.120.1418FF37.29640.29217448.7966496492100.685677861344839432515150DRYMH
2020-07-29 11:52:57FORECAST20203102464.1350.4557.29000.070.10.17FF32.13632.13217448.7966496492100.483025643730719422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20203102453.550.4551.975000.070.110.18FF21.5621.5217448.7966496492100.129905484936689412515220DRYL
2020-07-29 04:00:04FORECAST20203102449.8848.1749.025000.070.10.17FF17.88619.88217448.7966496492100.0672382244418629412515220DRYL