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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 3, 2020

[ Sunday, August 2, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 4, 2020 ]

DAY 308 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/04/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.383
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 583

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 8 in
SWE DAY: 215
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.74 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 22

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-04 04:00:03OBSERVATION20203082260.8799245.8799853.379958.287385000.030.03FF28.87992582.87992215450.78865719571 3.73585915581380.3828517846299294 22413212DRYL
2020-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20203082247.8647.8647.864.91329866666670.00030.00030.030.0303FF15.86569.86216450.085233320272.21140317675880.0476903470517229412414214DRYL
2020-08-03 11:58:24FORECAST20203082262.7352.5457.6355.17478933333330.03880.03880.030.0688FF30.73584.73216450.183377265712.32960413871860.458747839440589422414216DRYL
2020-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20203082257.5946.5952.094.92889866666670.04060.04060.030.0706FF25.59579.59216450.091090216552.21845337444690.259875125448289422414216DRYL
2020-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20203082262.9847.0455.014.31542741666670.0340.0340.030.064FF30.98584.98216449.860592328051.94134073381040.469185175200689422414216DRYL
2020-08-03 00:04:00FORECAST20203082263.2148.4455.82500.03290.03290.030.0629FF31.21570.21215447.6591471522300.478806434654349422415220DRYL
2020-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20203082262.947.4255.1600.03020.04020.030.0702FF30.9585.9215447.6591471522300.465842576091079422415220DRYL
2020-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20203082263.6348.7256.17500.03620.04620.030.0762FF31.63586.63215447.6591471522300.496403609941299422415220DRYL
2020-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20203082264.2350.5657.39500.0240.0340.030.064FF32.23587.23215447.6591471522300.521546083406769432415222.5DRYL
2020-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20203082263.1650.7656.9600.01280.03280.030.0628FF31.16586.16215447.6591471522300.47671361102569422415220DRYL
2020-08-02 03:52:45FORECAST20203082264.2450.7957.51500.00870.01870.030.0487FF32.24587.24215447.6591471522300.521964676690129432415222.5DRYL
2020-08-02 00:00:05FORECAST20203082265.251.9458.5700.00850.01850.030.0485FF33.2590.2215447.6591471522300.561969271874599432415222.5DRYL
2020-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20203082264.9452.2258.5800.00940.02940.030.0594FF32.94605.94215447.6591471522300.551179762988029432515225DRYL
2020-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20203082265.552.3858.9400.00120.01120.030.0412FF33.5606.5215447.6591471522300.574361208547459432515225DRYL
2020-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20203082265.2552.3358.7900.00360.01360.030.0436FF33.25607.25215447.6591471522300.564039160397419432515225DRYL
2020-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20203082265.1952.6958.9400.00290.02290.030.0529FF33.19602.19215447.6591471522300.561555088780879432515225DRYL
2020-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20203082265.3752.4758.9200.00230.02230.030.0523FF33.37607.37215447.6591471522300.568999637366369432515225DRYL
2020-07-31 23:52:33FORECAST20203082263.5651.957.7300.01060.02060.050.0706FF31.56604.56215447.6591471522300.493469335406949422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-31 19:52:12FORECAST20203082262.3151.5456.92500.01140.02140.050.0714FF30.31603.31215447.6591471522300.441280581036599422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-31 16:00:04FORECAST20203082262.851.5457.1700.01480.01480.050.0648FF30.8604.8215447.6591471522300.461667740759399422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20203082255.7350.4853.10500.05340.05340.050.1034FF23.73596.73215447.6591471522300.200668953967799412415217.5DRYL
2020-07-31 08:03:55FORECAST20203082255.3250.4852.900.06780.06780.040.1078FF23.32595.32215447.6591471522300.188797343857179412415217.5DRYL
2020-07-31 04:00:03FORECAST20203082260.9849.2655.1200.05760.06760.050.1176FF28.98596.98215447.6591471522300.386871341711499422415220DRYL
2020-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20203082262.1250.1356.12500.05020.05020.070.1202FF30.12590.12215447.6591471522300.433414022477149422415220DRYL
2020-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20203082262.1248.8955.50500.05020.05020.080.1302FF30.12603.12215447.6591471522300.433414022477149422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20203082263.5751.4357.500.04610.04610.080.1261FF31.57605.57215447.6591471522300.493888499553379422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20203082261.5248.7255.1200.08690.08690.070.1569FF29.52600.52215447.6591471522300.408759090163059422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20203082261.5248.7255.1200.08690.08690.070.1569FF29.52599.52215447.6591471522300.408759090163059422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-30 03:52:17FORECAST20203082260.2648.654.4300.06040.06040.070.1304FF28.26605.26215447.6591471522300.358249149383079422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20203082263.0949.5156.300.16780.16780.120.2878FF31.09608.09215447.6591471522300.473784749549199422525245DRYM
2020-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20203082263.0949.5156.300.16780.16780.10.2678FF31.09625.09215447.6591471522300.473784749549199422525245DRYM
2020-07-29 15:58:27FORECAST20203082262.1348.5555.3400.01630.01630.150.1663FF30.13623.13215447.6591471522300.433827423066589422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-29 11:52:57FORECAST20203082262.9850.956.9400.07380.07380.130.2038FF30.98618.98215447.6591471522300.469185175200689422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20203082262.9850.956.9400.07380.07380.140.2138FF30.98618.98215447.6591471522300.469185175200689422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20203082259.4748.3653.91500.06730.06730.130.1973FF27.47624.47215447.6591471522300.327740974235459422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20203082261.250.2755.73500.04580.04580.110.1558FF29.2608.2215447.6591471522300.395749492988959422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20203082261.250.2755.73500.04580.04580.110.1558FF29.2624.2215447.6591471522300.395749492988959422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20203082258.7648.7853.7700.04990.04990.090.1399FF26.76623.76215447.6591471522300.301262931225799422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-28 11:58:30FORECAST20203082263.5149.3856.44500.00670.00670.090.0967FF31.51625.51215447.6591471522300.491373632088569422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20203082263.5149.3856.44500.00670.00670.090.0967FF31.51618.51215447.6591471522300.491373632088569422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-28 04:00:03FORECAST20203082262.8448.5955.71500.01570.01570.110.1257FF30.84615.84215447.6591471522300.463337194130079422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20203082263.8850.0656.9700.02480.03480.090.1248FF31.88601.88215447.6591471522300.506883639353029432515225DRYL
2020-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20203082263.8853.8958.88500.01730.02730.10.1273FF31.88620.88215447.6591471522300.506883639353029432515225DRYL
2020-07-27 16:00:02FORECAST20203082264.3653.3758.86500.00340.00340.120.1234FF32.36618.36215447.6591471522300.526985774506559432515225DRYL
2020-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20203082252.0448.4150.22500.01340.02340.140.1634FF20.04594.04215447.6591471522300.109849792604629412415217.5DRYL
2020-07-27 07:58:29FORECAST20203082252.0448.4750.25500.00440.01440.180.1944FF20.04597.04215447.6591471522300.109849792604629412415217.5DRYL
2020-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20203082251.750.8551.2750000.210.21FF19.7592.7215447.6591471522300.103274599240549412415217.5DRYL