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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 2, 2020

[ Saturday, August 1, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, August 3, 2020 ]

DAY 307 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/03/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.470
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 587

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 7 in
SWE DAY: 214
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 21

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-03 04:00:04OBSERVATION20203072163.8700846.0000454.935066.8323354166667000.030.03FF31.87008586.87008214449.6817929277 3.07237684005010.4701069094441894 22413212DRYL
2020-08-03 00:04:00FORECAST20203072148.9348.9348.9300.00060.00060.030.0306FF16.93571.93215447.6591471522300.0327873575675289412415217.5DRYL
2020-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20203072164.6551.2557.950.0865026666666670.00680.00680.030.0368FF32.65587.65215447.692153961430.0387265651634080.506817682994579432414218DRYL
2020-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20203072164.9849.0957.03500.01520.01520.030.0452FF32.98587.98215447.6591471522300.522351382545579432415222.5DRYL
2020-08-02 03:52:44FORECAST20203072165.1749.2957.2300.0060.0060.030.036FF33.17588.17215447.6591471522300.531281160310829432415222.5DRYL
2020-08-02 00:00:05FORECAST20203072166.6850.4358.55500.00540.00540.030.0354FF34.68589.68214447.0871457971400.601329041466479432415222.5DRYL
2020-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20203072166.948.4157.6550.817361333333330.00740.01740.030.0474FF34.9605.9214447.399923239330.365687397792130.611321870711299432514220DRYL
2020-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20203072167.2949.4258.3550.6867080.00210.01210.030.0421FF35.29606.29214447.349970075870.307198803250860.628852891780839432514220DRYL
2020-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20203072167.5252.0259.7700.00290.01290.030.0429FF35.52606.52214447.0871457971400.63907035945179432515225DRYL
2020-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20203072167.5553.1360.3400.00270.02270.030.0527FF35.55601.55214447.0871457971400.640395968749149432515225DRYL
2020-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20203072167.3352.8960.1100.00380.02380.030.0538FF35.33607.33214447.0871457971400.630636612587159432515225DRYL
2020-07-31 23:52:33FORECAST20203072167.4751.1559.3100.00150.03150.030.0615FF35.47606.47214447.0871457971400.636857302538819432515225DRYL
2020-07-31 19:52:12FORECAST20203072167.4152.7760.0900.00220.03220.030.0622FF35.41606.41214447.0871457971400.634195599072599432515225DRYL
2020-07-31 16:00:04FORECAST20203072167.3352.5959.9600.0010.0210.030.051FF35.33607.33214447.0871457971400.630636612587159432515225DRYL
2020-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20203072166.9652.8559.90500.00050.02050.030.0505FF34.96605.96214447.0871457971400.614034759154449432515225DRYL
2020-07-31 08:03:55FORECAST20203072166.9953.016000.00090.01090.030.0409FF34.99604.99214447.0871457971400.615389124851469432515225DRYL
2020-07-31 04:00:03FORECAST20203072166.4152.6559.5300.01230.03230.030.0623FF34.41601.41214447.0871457971400.588974391188319432515225DRYL
2020-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20203072166.7852.3959.58500.00310.04310.030.0731FF34.78592.78214447.0871457971400.605879903807469432415222.5DRYL
2020-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20203072167.3151.9759.6400.00350.04350.040.0835FF35.31606.31214447.0871457971400.629745100806799432515225DRYL
2020-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20203072168.2752.2460.25500.00160.04160.040.0816FF36.27607.27214447.0871457971400.671672310104769432515150DRYMH
2020-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20203072162.652.9957.79500.00060.03060.040.0706FF30.6603.6214447.0871457971400.411001435328699422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20203072163.2853.4258.3500.00150.03150.040.0715FF31.28603.28214447.0871457971400.44248312033369422515222.5DRYL
2020-07-30 03:52:17FORECAST20203072169.5452.8561.19500.00120.03120.040.0712FF37.54609.54214447.0871457971400.723912746944649442515155DRYH
2020-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20203072169.349.8359.56500.00090.03090.090.1209FF37.3610.3214447.0871457971400.714358604455849442515155DRYH
2020-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20203072169.349.2859.2900.00120.01120.090.1012FF37.3627.3214447.0871457971400.714358604455849442515155DRYH
2020-07-29 15:58:27FORECAST20203072168.6852.5660.6200.00110.04110.110.1511FF36.68625.68214447.0871457971400.688975944697279432515150DRYMH
2020-07-29 11:52:57FORECAST20203072170.0252.7761.39500.00360.02360.110.1336FF38.02621.02214447.0871457971400.74253799854219442515155DRYH
2020-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20203072170.0252.7761.39500.00360.02360.120.1436FF38.02621.02214447.0871457971400.74253799854219442515155DRYH
2020-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20203072171.2752.8762.0700.00360.02360.110.1336FF39.27630.27214447.0871457971400.787803270041829442515155DRYH
2020-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20203072169.6853.4261.5500.00180.02180.090.1118FF37.68611.68214447.0871457971400.729412681243799442515155DRYH
2020-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20203072169.6853.4261.5500.00180.01180.10.1118FF37.68627.68214447.0871457971400.729412681243799442515155DRYH
2020-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20203072172.2753.2662.76500.00220.00220.090.0922FF40.27630.27214447.0871457971400.820416096510359442515155DRYH
2020-07-28 11:58:30FORECAST20203072171.0452.1861.6100.00170.00170.090.0917FF39.04627.04214447.0871457971400.77984084757949442515155DRYH
2020-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20203072171.0451.9161.47500.00170.00170.090.0917FF39.04620.04214447.0871457971400.77984084757949442515155DRYH
2020-07-28 04:00:03FORECAST20203072168.752.1160.40500.00170.00170.110.1117FF36.7617.7214447.0871457971400.689809841907379432515150DRYMH
2020-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20203072169.7652.7161.23500.00650.00650.090.0965FF37.76602.76214447.0871457971400.732530771415949442515155DRYH
2020-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20203072169.7652.7161.23500.00650.00650.10.1065FF37.76621.76214447.0871457971400.732530771415949442515155DRYH
2020-07-27 16:00:02FORECAST20203072170.3150.7560.5300.00130.00130.120.1213FF38.31619.31214447.0871457971400.753466297717839442515155DRYH
2020-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20203072167.5452.3359.93500.01040.01040.140.1504FF35.54606.54214447.0871457971400.6399542856429432515225DRYL
2020-07-27 07:58:29FORECAST20203072167.5452.3359.93500.01040.01040.180.1904FF35.54609.54214447.0871457971400.6399542856429432515225DRYL
2020-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20203072166.7249.958.3100.0030.0130.20.213FF34.72605.72214447.0871457971400.603151077518799432515225DRYL
2020-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20203072161.4848.4954.98500.08730.23730.260.4973FF29.48581.48214447.0871457971400.360464323340469422425240DRYM
2020-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20203072161.4848.4954.98500.07660.22660.280.5066FF29.48597.48214447.0871457971400.360464323340469422425240DRYM
2020-07-26 15:52:28FORECAST20203072161.5949.1655.37500.06750.24750.30.5475FF29.59596.59214447.0871457971400.365336963882859422425240DRYM
2020-07-26 12:00:01FORECAST20203072153.6447.3250.4800.01150.09150.160.2515FF21.64586.64214447.0871457971400.0996673401055279412425235DRYL
2020-07-26 08:00:02FORECAST20203072148.8547.348.07500.01130.09130.160.2513FF16.85575.85214447.0871457971400.0320984824625439412425235DRYL
2020-07-26 04:00:05FORECAST20203072148.1747.9448.05500.00490.23490.160.3949FF16.17577.17214447.0871457971400.0267111640345089412425235DRYL