Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 31, 2020

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DAY 305 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/01/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 73.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.73°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.41°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.811 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 41 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 602 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 212 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.38 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 19 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 2 D2: 5 D3: 1 D4: 4 D5: 1 HSdry: 44.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-01 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	305	19	73.09994	51.72998	62.41496	3.76475625	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	41.09994	602.09994	212	447.38282291398	1.684287278708	0.81097015443942	95	4	2	5	1	4	1	44	DRY	M
2020-07-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	70.75	55.41	63.08	0	0.0162	0.0162	0.03	0.0462	F	F	38.75	599.75	213	446.51296670182	0	0.73928711595889	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-31 08:03:55	FORECAST	2020	305	19	70.11	56.46	63.285	0	0.0123	0.0123	0.03	0.0423	F	F	38.11	599.11	213	446.51296670182	0	0.71759360453983	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-31 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	67.26	56.29	61.775	0	0.0156	0.0156	0.03	0.0456	F	F	35.26	596.26	213	446.51296670182	0	0.61191459805849	95	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-31 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	71.67	56	63.835	0	0.0396	0.0396	0.03	0.0696	F	F	39.67	587.67	212	445.9366015751	0	0.76889972840555	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	71.95	56.65	64.3	0	0.0357	0.0457	0.03	0.0757	F	F	39.95	599.95	212	445.9366015751	0	0.77752554058724	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	72.45	56.42	64.435	0	0.0364	0.0464	0.03	0.0764	F	F	40.45	600.45	212	445.9366015751	0	0.79246366237632	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	72.88	56.8	64.84	0	0.0297	0.0397	0.03	0.0697	F	F	40.88	600.88	212	445.9366015751	0	0.80482423836126	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	73.39	56.89	65.14	0	0.0258	0.0358	0.03	0.0658	F	F	41.39	600.39	212	445.9366015751	0	0.81889126283509	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-30 03:52:16	FORECAST	2020	305	19	73.14	56.39	64.765	0	0.0275	0.0375	0.03	0.0675	F	F	41.14	600.14	212	445.9366015751	0	0.81207663229693	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	73.43	56.42	64.925	0	0.0255	0.0855	0.03	0.1155	F	F	41.43	601.43	212	445.9366015751	0	0.81996709182662	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	74.16	56.32	65.24	0	0.0112	0.0712	0.03	0.1012	F	F	42.16	618.16	212	445.9366015751	0	0.83889393126463	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-29 15:58:27	FORECAST	2020	305	19	74.6	56.61	65.605	0	0.0369	0.1169	0.03	0.1469	F	F	42.6	617.6	212	445.9366015751	0	0.8496522597951	95	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-07-29 11:52:57	FORECAST	2020	305	19	73.03	56.4	64.715	0	0.0219	0.1019	0.03	0.1319	F	F	41.03	615.03	212	445.9366015751	0	0.80902880231115	95	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-07-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	305	19	73.93	56.75	65.34	0	0.0239	0.1139	0.03	0.1439	F	F	41.93	614.93	212	445.9366015751	0	0.83307563575442	95	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-07-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	73.44	56.97	65.205	0	0.0178	0.0978	0.03	0.1278	F	F	41.44	617.44	212	445.9366015751	0	0.82023542230556	95	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-07-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	73.32	56.24	64.78	0	0.016	0.066	0.04	0.106	F	F	41.32	601.32	212	445.9366015751	0	0.81699891720381	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	72.88	55.72	64.3	0	0.0137	0.0637	0.05	0.1137	F	F	40.88	616.88	212	445.9366015751	0	0.80482423836126	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	72.55	54.79	63.67	0	0.0014	0.0414	0.05	0.0914	F	F	40.55	617.55	212	445.9366015751	0	0.79537867409411	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 11:58:30	FORECAST	2020	305	19	73.23	55.12	64.175	0	0.0006	0.0406	0.05	0.0906	F	F	41.23	617.23	212	445.9366015751	0	0.81454788850619	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	68.06	57.14	62.6	0	0.001	0.051	0.04	0.091	F	F	36.06	610.06	212	445.9366015751	0	0.64285681840124	95	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-28 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	72.48	54.6	63.54	0	0.0013	0.0613	0.05	0.1113	F	F	40.48	611.48	212	445.9366015751	0	0.79334072737007	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	71.46	54.13	62.795	0	0.0019	0.0519	0.04	0.0919	F	F	39.46	593.46	212	445.9366015751	0	0.7623099656669	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	71.46	54.13	62.795	0	0.0018	0.0518	0.05	0.1018	F	F	39.46	612.46	212	445.9366015751	0	0.7623099656669	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	70.46	53.43	61.945	0	0.0025	0.0825	0.04	0.1225	F	F	38.46	610.46	212	445.9366015751	0	0.72956423093234	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	305	19	67.43	52.91	60.17	0	0.0008	0.1008	0.04	0.1408	F	F	35.43	600.43	212	445.9366015751	0	0.61855715690774	95	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-27 07:58:29	FORECAST	2020	305	19	67.43	52.91	60.17	0	0.0008	0.1308	0.05	0.1808	F	F	35.43	603.43	212	445.9366015751	0	0.61855715690774	95	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-27 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	305	19	64.14	50.75	57.445	0	0.0082	0.1682	0.04	0.2082	F	F	32.14	601.14	212	445.9366015751	0	0.48616889556127	95	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-07-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	64.92	47.31	56.115	0	0.083	0.303	0.04	0.343	F	F	32.92	588.92	212	445.9366015751	0	0.51797455458223	95	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-07-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	64.92	47.31	56.115	0	0.083	0.313	0.05	0.363	F	F	32.92	604.92	212	445.9366015751	0	0.51797455458223	95	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-26 15:52:28	FORECAST	2020	305	19	64.96	47.19	56.075	0	0.1116	0.3716	0.04	0.4116	F	F	32.96	601.96	212	445.9366015751	0	0.51960425725508	95	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-26 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	305	19	58.79	45.73	52.26	0	0.0828	0.2028	0.04	0.2428	F	F	26.79	596.79	212	445.9366015751	0	0.28039372987661	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-07-26 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	305	19	58.8	45.7	52.25	0	0.0828	0.2028	0.04	0.2428	F	F	26.8	590.8	212	445.9366015751	0	0.28073826507652	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-07-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	305	19	54.83	44.5	49.665	0	0.2254	0.3454	0.04	0.3854	F	F	22.83	593.83	212	445.9366015751	0	0.1618992079381	95	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-07-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	64.46	45.89	55.175	0	0.0441	0.0541	0.04	0.0941	F	F	32.46	603.46	212	445.9366015751	0	0.49921823353142	95	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	64.48	45.87	55.175	0	0.0441	0.0541	0.04	0.0941	F	F	32.48	616.48	212	445.9366015751	0	0.50003398986797	95	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	60.81	45.9	53.355	0	0.111	0.131	0.04	0.171	F	F	28.81	610.81	212	445.9366015751	0	0.35377934913116	95	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-07-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	61.54	47.78	54.66	0	0.2931	0.3131	0.04	0.3531	F	F	29.54	605.54	212	445.9366015751	0	0.38189761580727	95	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-07-25 08:03:45	FORECAST	2020	305	19	62.17	48.17	55.17	0	0.2931	0.3131	0.04	0.3531	F	F	30.17	605.17	212	445.9366015751	0	0.40668171072455	95	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-07-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	305	19	71.99	50.77	61.38	0	0.0511	0.0511	0.04	0.0911	F	F	39.99	629.99	212	445.9366015751	0	0.77874266020593	95	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	63.74	49.25	56.495	0	0.1492	0.1492	0.04	0.1892	F	F	31.74	620.74	212	445.9366015751	0	0.46987965989266	95	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-07-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	63.74	50.18	56.96	0	0.1336	0.1336	0.09	0.2236	F	F	31.74	632.74	212	445.9366015751	0	0.46987965989266	95	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-07-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	305	19	64.89	47.43	56.16	0	0.0328	0.1028	0.07	0.1728	F	F	32.89	622.89	212	445.9366015751	0	0.51675207894311	95	3	2	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	51.39	45.26	48.325	0	0.06	0.12	0.07	0.19	F	F	19.39	603.39	212	445.9366015751	0	0.090311499919688	95	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-07-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	305	19	50.07	45.24	47.655	0	0.0481	0.1081	0.07	0.1781	F	F	18.07	601.07	212	445.9366015751	0	0.070226756356699	95	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-07-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	305	19	45.03	42.88	43.955	0	0.0104	0.0704	0.08	0.1504	F	F	13.03	590.03	212	445.9366015751	0	0.023215769821987	95	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L