Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 19, 2020

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DAY 293 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/20/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.86°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.67°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.77°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.774 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 37 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 431 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.26 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.29 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 11 in SWE DAY: 200 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.04 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 4.66 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 7 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 2 D2: 3 D3: 1 D4: 3 D5: 1 HSdry: 27.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-20 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	293	7	68.86004	50.66996	59.765	10.51179	0	0.03	0.26	0.29	F	F	36.86004	430.86004	200	443.03717185046	4.657113712686	0.77370293190628	95	4	2	3	1	3	1	27	DRY	L
2020-07-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	293	7	56.74	56.74	56.74	10.864754666667	0.0065	0.0365	0.26	0.2965	F	F	24.74	418.74	201	443.76278454324	4.8213737842592	0.26776002186362	95	2	2	3	1	3	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.07	56.72	64.395	10.615057333333	0.011	0.041	0.26	0.301	F	F	40.07	434.07	201	443.66499490066	4.7095293576636	0.86743161918299	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.76	52.88	62.82	10.019190666667	0.0156	0.0456	0.26	0.3056	F	F	40.76	434.76	201	443.43138327364	4.4428235766023	0.88345929489233	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.3	51.45	61.875	10.058351416667	0.0058	0.0358	0.26	0.2958	F	F	40.3	434.3	201	443.44674724099	4.4603432183276	0.87293430867023	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.22	51.08	62.15	11.201596	0.011	0.041	0.26	0.301	F	F	41.22	423.22	200	443.3082705665	4.9657601503447	0.89335244508127	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-18 19:58:35	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.36	48.87	60.615	13.384784	0.0045	0.0445	0.26	0.3045	F	F	40.36	437.36	200	444.16315521482	5.9450278933088	0.87434334893372	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-18 15:58:34	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.17	49.64	60.905	13.348649333333	0.0048	0.0448	0.26	0.3048	F	F	40.17	437.17	200	444.14904428398	5.9287898438819	0.86984388443776	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	71.97	51.39	61.68	11.28214	0.003	0.043	0.26	0.303	F	F	39.97	436.97	200	443.3398939797	5.0018227514641	0.86498882012954	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	293	7	71.91	51.88	61.895	10.833545333333	0.0022	0.0422	0.26	0.3022	F	F	39.91	437.91	200	443.16368311708	4.8010338511358	0.86350845499961	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	293	7	71.82	51.65	61.735	10.2004205	0.0025	0.0425	0.26	0.3025	F	F	39.82	436.82	200	442.91464571933	4.5179156319456	0.86126721909145	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	70.78	52.8	61.79	12.19072	0.0016	0.0116	0.26	0.2716	F	F	38.78	428.78	200	443.69617547123	5.4089758402407	0.8335578652672	95	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	70.8	52.35	61.575	13.361444	0.0019	0.0319	0.26	0.2919	F	F	38.8	436.8	200	444.15404087104	5.9345393444722	0.83412224191484	95	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-17 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	293	7	70.25	51.98	61.115	13.400257333333	0.0026	0.0326	0.26	0.2926	F	F	38.25	436.25	200	444.16919730255	5.9519815433943	0.81815267883437	95	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-17 11:52:59	FORECAST	2020	293	7	70.85	52.02	61.435	12.020197333333	0.0007	0.0307	0.26	0.2907	F	F	38.85	436.85	200	443.62937107655	5.3325125832026	0.83552777876301	95	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	70.99	52.28	61.635	11.757469333333	0.0009	0.0509	0.26	0.3109	F	F	38.99	432.99	200	443.52638743534	5.2147478987951	0.83942218982044	95	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	293	7	71.57	52.6	62.085	11.025765	0.0006	0.0606	0.26	0.3206	F	F	39.57	436.57	200	443.23921282001	4.8870513993384	0.85491098738985	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	293	7	71.45	52.8	62.125	11.716616	0.0027	0.0327	0.26	0.2927	F	F	39.45	425.45	200	443.51036764549	5.196440669721	0.85179163039716	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	71.7	53.71	62.705	13.71268	0.0023	0.0423	0.28	0.3223	F	F	39.7	436.7	200	444.29114253893	6.0924222644707	0.85824022042829	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-16 15:53:35	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.14	53.88	63.01	13.566501333333	0.0009	0.0409	0.28	0.3209	F	F	40.14	438.14	200	444.23409793098	6.0267024818928	0.86912340646035	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-16 11:53:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	68.36	53.97	61.165	11.982097333333	0.0011	0.0211	0.28	0.3011	F	F	36.36	435.36	200	443.61444096829	5.3154314101543	0.75632668457247	95	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-16 07:53:36	FORECAST	2020	293	7	68.36	54.43	61.395	11.46916	0.0017	0.0217	0.28	0.3017	F	F	36.36	434.36	200	443.41329735469	5.0855780534886	0.75632668457247	95	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.13	54.4	63.765	11.340958583333	0.0008	0.0308	0.28	0.3108	F	F	41.13	435.13	200	443.36298341133	5.028161232251	0.89146597799345	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.98	52.36	63.17	12.456350666667	0.0023	0.0223	0.28	0.3023	F	F	41.98	425.98	200	443.80018199296	5.5281306928347	0.90834841243365	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.98	51.96	62.97	14.654736	0.0029	0.0429	0.29	0.3329	F	F	41.98	438.98	200	444.65826182856	6.5163494373164	0.90834841243365	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	74.53	51.98	63.255	14.627457333333	0.0016	0.0316	0.28	0.3116	F	F	42.53	435.53	200	444.64764367576	6.5040644362344	0.91818720659642	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-15 11:58:37	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.91	52.22	63.065	12.600581333333	0.0021	0.0221	0.28	0.3021	F	F	41.91	436.91	200	443.85662548889	5.5928515098117	0.90703603855756	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.91	52.22	63.065	11.547209333333	0.0021	0.0321	0.27	0.3021	F	F	41.91	441.91	200	443.44392058288	5.1205397785646	0.90703603855756	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-15 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.76	51.68	62.72	10.748800083333	0.0021	0.0421	0.27	0.3121	F	F	41.76	443.76	200	443.1303720857	4.7631197804023	0.90417728239458	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-14 23:53:06	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.94	50.82	61.88	10.743773333333	0.0012	0.0312	0.3	0.3312	F	F	40.94	446.94	200	443.12839598299	4.7608710440048	0.88740512721878	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.28	50.91	62.095	12.854746666667	0.0012	0.0712	0.29	0.3612	F	F	41.28	441.28	200	443.95604070871	5.7069424344468	0.89459691334841	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-14 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.81	50.8	61.805	12.685116	0.0012	0.0712	0.27	0.3412	F	F	40.81	446.81	200	443.88969783166	5.6307923081995	0.88456503726177	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.16	49.85	61.005	10.947372	0.0016	0.0316	0.27	0.3016	F	F	40.16	444.16	200	443.20841397315	4.8519673812941	0.86960402979212	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.16	49.85	61.005	10.448538666667	0.0016	0.0416	0.26	0.3016	F	F	40.16	445.16	200	443.01228983964	4.628831040198	0.86960402979212	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-14 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	71.61	50.89	61.25	10.401233833333	0.0016	0.0516	0.27	0.3216	F	F	39.61	446.61	200	442.99367830075	4.6076808346946	0.85594090929694	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-13 23:53:10	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.03	49.22	60.625	11.097305333333	0.0002	0.0602	0.3	0.3602	F	F	40.03	441.03	200	443.2673140568	4.9190727283748	0.86645816770056	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	72.03	49.22	60.625	13.320181333333	0.0002	0.0402	0.3	0.3402	F	F	40.03	440.03	200	444.13792634721	5.9159977159555	0.86645816770056	95	5	2	3	1	2	1	20	DRY	L
2020-07-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	69.46	49.27	59.365	13.276065333333	0.0002	0.0302	0.3	0.3302	F	F	37.46	438.46	200	444.12069562803	5.8961753710432	0.79359749005832	95	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.07	50.69	61.88	11.151937333333	0.0012	0.0512	0.28	0.3312	F	F	41.07	446.07	200	443.28877021604	4.9435285860197	0.89019511218772	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	73.07	50.69	61.88	11.1556	0.0012	0.0412	0.28	0.3212	F	F	41.07	435.07	200	443.29020858442	4.9451682508843	0.89019511218772	95	5	2	3	1	3	1	30	DRY	L
2020-07-13 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	293	7	71.27	47.88	59.575	11.456733333333	0.0012	0.0512	0.29	0.3412	F	F	39.27	443.27	200	443.40842110065	5.0800120383045	0.84702927445736	95	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	64.71	48.38	56.545	14.42538	0.0057	0.0457	0.28	0.3257	F	F	32.71	423.71	200	444.5689626631	6.413076222621	0.61092579929639	95	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-12 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	293	7	64.71	48.38	56.545	16.025073333333	0.0046	0.0446	0.31	0.3546	F	F	32.71	432.71	200	445.19071654702	7.1342138799852	0.61092579929639	95	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	293	7	63.63	48.61	56.12	16.332409333333	0.0047	0.0247	0.3	0.3247	F	F	31.63	436.63	200	445.30988000274	7.2729832403824	0.56340056473066	95	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-12 11:53:33	FORECAST	2020	293	7	63.57	50.66	57.115	16.410801333333	0	0.04	0.37	0.41	F	F	31.57	426.57	200	445.34026006357	7.3083905336383	0.56072643783214	95	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	293	7	54.14	50.66	52.4	16.929424	0	0.04	0.4	0.44	F	F	22.14	417.14	200	445.54109493993	7.5427541056623	0.18043143297248	95	1	2	3	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-12 03:58:40	FORECAST	2020	293	7	52.44	52.19	52.315	16.992564	0.0002	0.0502	0.42	0.4702	F	F	20.44	418.44	200	445.56552763149	7.5713007444718	0.13433636214522	95	1	2	3	1	2	2	6	DRY	L