Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 16, 2020

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DAY 290 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/17/2020 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.93°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.52°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.72°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.578 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 33 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 384 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.72 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.72 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 20 in SWE DAY: 197 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.82 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 8.69 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 4 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 2 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-17 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	290	4	64.92992	48.52004	56.72498	19.547205	0	0	0.72	0.72	F	F	32.92992	383.92992	197	444.81554059897	8.6949005592739	0.57803186478419	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	290	4	49.71	49.71	49.71	20.903185333333	0.0004	0.0004	0.72	0.7204	F	F	17.71	368.71	198	445.92050639274	9.3211589890613	0.095523714961443	95	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-16 11:53:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	61.95	49.14	55.545	21.288113333333	0.0151	0.0151	0.72	0.7351	F	F	29.95	380.95	198	446.06902672826	9.4959679954809	0.46113690945543	95	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-16 07:53:36	FORECAST	2020	290	4	61.19	50.1	55.645	20.808686666667	0.0175	0.0175	0.72	0.7375	F	F	29.19	380.19	198	445.88402289126	9.2782609220171	0.43145866936074	95	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	290	4	56.85	49.94	53.395	20.82234525	0.021	0.021	0.72	0.741	F	F	24.85	375.85	198	445.88929665993	9.2844608783327	0.27375699964971	95	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	61.84	50.23	56.035	21.888810666667	0.0133	0.0233	0.72	0.7433	F	F	29.84	366.84	197	445.7233354186	9.7563536986928	0.45682394803799	95	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	290	4	61.9	50.31	56.105	24.015965333333	0.0082	0.0282	0.72	0.7482	F	F	29.9	380.9	197	446.54332462177	10.724169003948	0.45917587485989	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	57.68	50.22	53.95	24.075114666667	0.003	0.023	0.72	0.743	F	F	25.68	376.68	197	446.56606263563	10.751129164195	0.30171508858979	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-15 11:58:37	FORECAST	2020	290	4	61.96	49.7	55.83	21.865816	0.0016	0.0216	0.72	0.7416	F	F	29.96	380.96	197	445.71444705977	9.7459100879507	0.46152923134564	95	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	63.78	50.79	57.285	21.045269333333	0.0021	0.0121	0.72	0.7321	F	F	31.78	383.78	197	445.39693291066	9.3734984133454	0.53317091368671	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-15 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	63.07	50.77	56.92	20.287641416667	0.0034	0.0134	0.72	0.7334	F	F	31.07	383.07	197	445.10317727758	9.0300936540265	0.50522266693507	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-14 23:53:06	FORECAST	2020	290	4	63.34	50.79	57.065	20.188041333333	0.007	0.037	0.72	0.757	F	F	31.34	387.34	197	445.06451720385	8.9849808693113	0.51586135468232	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	63.22	50.92	57.07	22.229369333333	0.0073	0.0273	0.72	0.7473	F	F	31.22	386.22	197	445.85491420956	9.911073557046	0.51113399237683	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	63.89	50.85	57.37	22.152125333333	0.0016	0.0116	0.72	0.7316	F	F	31.89	387.89	197	445.82508007359	9.8759730505336	0.53748980096412	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	63.49	48.98	56.235	20.137768	0.003	0.013	0.72	0.733	F	F	31.49	387.49	197	445.04499974284	8.9622129543814	0.52176734603175	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	63.59	48.85	56.22	19.709618666667	0.003	0.003	0.72	0.723	F	F	31.59	387.59	197	444.87867961592	8.76838912816	0.52570209990909	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-14 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	63.21	48.92	56.065	19.6426885	0.0025	0.0125	0.72	0.7325	F	F	31.21	388.21	197	444.85266337868	8.7381022951428	0.51073996572702	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-13 23:53:10	FORECAST	2020	290	4	61.39	48.57	54.98	20.399494666667	0.0174	0.0274	0.73	0.7574	F	F	29.39	383.39	197	445.14658179739	9.0807653212608	0.43923828894971	95	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	56.41	47.93	52.17	22.599301333333	0.0196	0.0296	0.73	0.7596	F	F	24.41	382.41	197	445.99771282072	10.079236706013	0.25947349114818	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	59.84	48.06	53.95	22.580222666667	0.0236	0.0336	0.73	0.7636	F	F	27.84	380.84	197	445.99035148588	10.070561443736	0.3797837052144	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	63.65	49.27	56.46	20.651801333333	0.0062	0.0062	0.73	0.7362	F	F	31.65	384.65	197	445.24444382882	9.1950997987232	0.52806177402695	95	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-13 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	290	4	58.17	48.86	53.515	20.739049333333	0.0097	0.0097	0.73	0.7397	F	F	26.17	374.17	197	445.27827006615	9.2346480099633	0.31880001622232	95	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	62.64	49.06	55.85	20.405885333333	0.0131	0.0131	0.74	0.7531	F	F	30.64	389.64	197	445.14906131556	9.0836607014463	0.48827498814346	95	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	65.49	50.43	57.96	22.931568	0.0065	0.0065	0.73	0.7365	F	F	33.49	374.49	197	446.12585778789	10.230365444421	0.59955671506135	95	3	2	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-07-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	65.49	50.43	57.96	24.064353333333	0.0073	0.0073	0.76	0.7673	F	F	33.49	383.49	197	446.56192604953	10.74622397367	0.59955671506135	95	3	2	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-07-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	65.45	50.83	58.14	23.942501333333	0.0065	0.0065	0.75	0.7565	F	F	33.45	387.45	197	446.51507904889	10.690687875481	0.59802860656216	95	3	2	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-07-12 11:53:32	FORECAST	2020	290	4	59.07	48.28	53.675	23.565246666667	0.0751	0.0751	0.75	0.8251	F	F	27.07	376.07	197	446.36994842952	10.518817939329	0.3511825614556	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	59.07	48.29	53.68	23.473078666667	0.0751	0.0751	0.78	0.8551	F	F	27.07	376.07	197	446.33447007347	10.47684412768	0.3511825614556	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-12 03:58:40	FORECAST	2020	290	4	54.81	48.44	51.625	23.180284	0.0754	0.0754	0.8	0.8754	F	F	22.81	379.81	197	446.2217090984	10.343545943866	0.21095993831635	95	1	2	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-11 23:58:38	FORECAST	2020	290	4	69.63	51.57	60.6	21.879108	0.003	0.003	0.81	0.813	F	F	37.63	395.63	197	445.71958501298	9.7519469382141	0.74578196558554	95	4	2	2	1	2	1	16	DRY	L
2020-07-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	69.63	51.57	60.6	22.930822666667	0.003	0.003	0.85	0.853	F	F	37.63	396.63	197	446.1255704569	10.230026343213	0.74578196558554	95	4	2	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-07-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	69.05	52.1	60.575	22.823238666667	0.003	0.003	0.87	0.873	F	F	37.05	394.05	197	446.08409039909	10.181083660581	0.72706485442553	95	4	2	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-07-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	72.71	52.84	62.775	21.26584	0.0032	0.0032	0.84	0.8432	F	F	40.71	393.71	197	445.4823487474	9.4735563512865	0.83290509111759	95	4	2	2	1	2	1	16	DRY	L
2020-07-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	72.71	52.84	62.775	20.775261333333	0.0032	0.0032	0.79	0.7932	F	F	40.71	389.71	197	445.29230733531	9.2510640546141	0.83290509111759	95	4	2	2	1	2	1	16	DRY	L
2020-07-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	71.41	51.96	61.685	20.99583225	0.0032	0.0032	0.79	0.7932	F	F	39.41	387.41	197	445.37778186892	9.3510771959969	0.7987585797274	95	4	2	2	1	2	1	16	DRY	L
2020-07-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	70.91	52.86	61.885	20.704232	0	0	0.86	0.86	F	F	38.91	383.91	197	445.26477220993	9.2188651452616	0.78458586272599	95	4	2	2	1	2	1	16	DRY	L
2020-07-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	70.91	52.86	61.885	23.025672	0	0	0.87	0.87	F	F	38.91	393.91	197	446.16213113946	10.273182890438	0.78458586272599	95	4	2	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-07-10 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	290	4	69.88	52.09	60.985	23.333226666667	0	0	0.83	0.83	F	F	37.88	389.88	197	446.28062078382	10.41316688169	0.75363729033992	95	4	2	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-07-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	61.76	48.71	55.235	23.231984	0.0121	0.0221	0.87	0.8921	F	F	29.76	370.76	197	446.24162588046	10.367078312589	0.45369041076379	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	290	4	61.76	48.71	55.235	23.063392	0.0121	0.0221	0.79	0.8121	F	F	29.76	365.76	197	446.17666826619	10.290347401477	0.45369041076379	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-10 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	62.81	47.58	55.195	23.141457333333	0.0128	0.0228	0.8	0.8228	F	F	30.81	374.81	197	446.20674988817	10.325874464383	0.49497440420621	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	64.08	48.13	56.105	22.570134666667	0.0039	0.0239	0.75	0.7739	F	F	32.08	372.08	197	445.98645897609	10.0659744386	0.54493900969178	95	3	2	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-07-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	66.26	47.59	56.925	23.437076	0.0039	0.0239	0.91	0.9339	F	F	34.26	395.26	197	446.32060926105	10.460450039618	0.62865010655697	95	3	2	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-07-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	61.63	47.6	54.615	23.876486666667	0.0056	0.0156	0.9	0.9156	F	F	29.63	392.63	197	446.48969311289	10.660605204414	0.44860464122993	95	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-09 11:58:41	FORECAST	2020	290	4	54.43	47.22	50.825	23.533890666667	0.0034	0.0134	0.92	0.9334	F	F	22.43	383.43	197	446.35787945312	10.504537533255	0.20027067823803	95	1	2	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	290	4	48.32	47.23	47.775	23.472554666667	0.0024	0.0124	0.91	0.9224	F	F	16.32	379.32	197	446.33426834568	10.476605513351	0.074212108096616	95	1	2	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-09 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	290	4	49.83	49.59	49.71	23.576894416667	0.0019	0.0019	0.85	0.8519	F	F	17.83	381.83	197	446.37443142297	10.524122839959	0.097555139785672	95	1	2	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L