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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 15, 2020

[ Tuesday, July 14, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 16, 2020 ]

DAY 289 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/16/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.43°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.663
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 360

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.99 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 196
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 10.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 3

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-16 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020289366.5799848.2799257.4299523.364454583333000.990.99FF34.57998359.57998196445.71544265466 10.4138982169950.6628115306692292 3221123.5DRYL
2020-07-16 00:00:01FORECAST2020289353.4853.4853.4824.8825760.00950.00950.990.9995FF21.48346.48197446.8761231765511.1194290975260.18602851214402921221122.5DRYL
2020-07-15 11:58:37FORECAST2020289366.553.7860.1424.9364973333330.01810.01810.991.0081FF34.5359.5197446.8968060185211.1440410115560.65987938222036923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST2020289368.3952.6960.5424.3019813333330.00610.00610.990.9961FF36.39361.39197446.6532423847710.8545587589080.72625736333201924221118DRYL
2020-07-15 04:00:03FORECAST2020289368.4651.0959.77523.4847120833330.00930.00930.990.9993FF36.46361.46197446.338948598710.4821416994180.72858789229173924221118DRYL
2020-07-14 23:53:06FORECAST2020289369.0751.9160.4923.4478146666670.01660.02660.991.0166FF37.07365.07196445.7476619817110.4518085662470.74846958167076924221118DRYL
2020-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2020289368.3550.859.57525.497780.00610.01610.991.0061FF36.35364.35196446.5378468115511.3857237796750.72492120843055924221118DRYL
2020-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST2020289369.351.1960.24525.4323440.00260.01260.991.0026FF37.3365.3196446.5126872047611.3558642613560.75576138696533924221118DRYL
2020-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2020289369.352.0760.68523.3656706666670.00130.01130.991.0013FF37.3365.3196445.7159127294610.4144512277290.75576138696533924221118DRYL
2020-07-14 08:00:03FORECAST2020289369.1353.2661.19522.9137960.00140.00140.990.9914FF37.13365.13196445.541141391110.2090388234430.75038279786582924221118DRYL
2020-07-14 04:00:02FORECAST2020289369.1953.1261.15522.81461250.00080.01080.991.0008FF37.19366.19196445.5027533843110.1639726861460.75228826757715924221118DRYL
2020-07-13 23:53:10FORECAST2020289363.6853.0758.37523.4287386666670.00120.02120.991.0112FF31.68362.68196445.7402895597910.4431327573010.55154067926509923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2020289368.7553.0760.9125.3547746666670.00090.02090.991.0109FF36.75366.75196446.4828570133611.3204722321030.73813652241503924221118DRYL
2020-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST2020289364.153.158.625.4404373333330.00050.02050.991.0105FF32.1362.1196446.5157992518611.359557209210.56814002578903923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020289364.1752.8858.52523.8105506666670.00280.01280.991.0028FF32.17362.17196445.8877828930710.6168336462230.57089573775253923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-13 08:00:01FORECAST2020289364.2852.958.5923.6956960.00260.01260.991.0026FF32.28357.28196445.8434297699810.5645703754270.57521912003718923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-13 04:00:03FORECAST2020289368.8952.6660.77523.4734506666670.00460.02460.991.0146FF36.89367.89196445.7575691255910.4634683081630.74268383517641924221118DRYL
2020-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2020289367.2952.6359.9626.138260.00080.01080.991.0008FF35.29350.29196446.7838854840311.6781533625920.68839238183139923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST202028936452.2558.12527.2810493333330.00110.01111.021.0311FF32359196447.2218919438912.2006824970680.56419756904374923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2020289367.6652.1159.88527.2231573333330.00110.00111.021.0211FF35.66362.66196447.1997337499312.1741887112990.70138101688423924221124DRYL
2020-07-12 11:53:32FORECAST2020289362.2551.456.82526.2621173333330.00390.00391.021.0239FF30.25358.25196446.8314187776911.7347391481590.49451961319516922221123DRYL
2020-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2020289362.2551.456.82526.1700040.00390.00391.051.0539FF30.25358.25196446.7960694488811.6926549246610.49451961319516922221123DRYL
2020-07-12 03:58:40FORECAST2020289367.651.7359.66525.7380826666670.00020.00021.071.0702FF35.6365.6196446.6302053540711.4954051468330.69929151599035924221124DRYL
2020-07-11 23:58:38FORECAST2020289368.6149.0558.8325.4289973333330.00170.00171.081.0817FF36.61366.61196446.5114003263911.3543372082030.73354840235704924221118DRYL
2020-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020289368.6149.1658.88526.4807120.00170.00171.121.1217FF36.61367.61196446.9152733730611.8346346425930.73354840235704924221118DRYL
2020-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2020289368.949.7259.3126.4424453333330.00170.00171.141.1417FF36.9365.9196446.9005973470311.8171446147830.74300706782228924221118DRYL
2020-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2020289367.7749.5858.67525.2086733333330.0020.0021.111.112FF35.77361.77196446.4266560799311.2538237404110.70519453262919924221124DRYL
2020-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2020289367.7749.5858.67524.718040.0020.0021.061.062FF35.77357.77196446.2377710153111.0301230734670.70519453262919924221124DRYL
2020-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2020289366.7849.8258.324.7264495833330.0020.0021.061.062FF34.78356.78196446.2410105377411.0339558490770.67010101003583923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020289367.6752.1459.90524.5189813333330.00020.00021.131.1302FF35.67353.67196446.1610698365910.9394149429830.70172862475916924221124DRYL
2020-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2020289367.6752.1459.90526.8404213333330.00020.00021.141.1402FF35.67363.67196447.0531593359211.9990951549740.70172862475916924221124DRYL
2020-07-10 16:00:01FORECAST2020289366.3550.9858.66527.0228440.00040.00041.11.1004FF34.35361.35196447.1230385679212.0825361200270.65435421063493923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2020289361.7248.555.1126.233840.01040.01041.141.1504FF29.72349.72196446.8205679737811.7218192889330.47335209076651922221123DRYL
2020-07-10 08:00:04FORECAST2020289361.7248.555.1126.0652480.01040.01041.061.0704FF29.72344.72196446.7558583293211.6448022428070.47335209076651922221123DRYL
2020-07-10 04:00:03FORECAST2020289360.2348.554.36525.9351973333330.01370.01371.071.0837FF28.23353.23196446.7059228353811.5854062587040.41443499793231922221123DRYL
2020-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020289357.7648.2753.01525.4911386666670.01920.01921.021.0392FF25.76348.76196446.5352934638711.3826930852480.32144558442437922221123DRYL
2020-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2020289359.8147.7253.76525.9648080.01920.01921.181.1992FF27.81369.81196446.7172938796111.5989287658640.39811195671932922221123DRYL
2020-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2020289362.0848.4755.27525.6252733333330.00870.00871.171.1787FF30.08372.08196446.5868549461411.4439102250690.48772548467005922221123DRYL
2020-07-09 11:58:41FORECAST2020289364.3848.3256.3524.6509493333330.00760.00761.191.1976FF32.38370.38196446.2119240081510.9995475306540.57914164642894923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2020289364.3948.3356.3624.1693360.00760.00761.181.1876FF32.39372.39196446.026250764710.7801583195520.57953347408967923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-09 04:00:02FORECAST2020289366.2246.9956.60523.9636610833330.00180.00181.121.1218FF34.22373.22196445.9468890200310.6865201096430.64953895035514923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 23:53:58FORECAST2020289364.9947.7856.38526.1419853333330.00310.01310.960.9731FF32.99381.99196446.7853153903311.6798551620830.60288551718924923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 19:53:46FORECAST2020289366.3946.9156.6527.8574080.00310.01310.950.9631FF34.39382.39196447.4423159285412.4645831512860.65583086546739923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2020289364.4747.3355.928.4152813333330.00290.00290.990.9929FF32.47386.47196447.655363226612.7202530864590.58266522760404923221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 11:53:28FORECAST2020289357.8645.2551.55528.1938266666670.00110.01111.051.0611FF25.86367.86196447.5708276184812.6187343349320.32504419439954922221123DRYL
2020-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020289347.7645.2546.50527.8337920.00110.01110.980.9911FF15.76363.76196447.4332905078312.4537651418710.071243219503372921221122.5DRYL
2020-07-08 04:00:05FORECAST2020289348.4847.7148.09526.8097270833330.00030.01031.031.0403FF16.48378.48196447.0413983456311.9850578845980.081617433348474921221122.5DRYL