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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 12, 2020

[ Saturday, July 11, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, July 13, 2020 ]

DAY 286 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/13/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.83°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.154
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 97 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 349

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 32 in
SWE DAY: 193
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 0

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-13 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020286052.7799239.8346.3049632.15216666666700.060.930.99FF20.77992348.77992193447.36837595206 14.3838625850070.1535000916292197 1221122.5DRYL
2020-07-13 00:00:01FORECAST2020286040.9840.9840.9834.9509093333330.00070.06070.930.9907FF8.98336.98194449.001571986115.693013233010.016568856177953971221122.5DRYL
2020-07-12 11:53:32FORECAST2020286050.1742.3246.24534.9647226666670.0330.0930.931.023FF18.17346.17194449.0067961248515.6993981019540.10270231455826971222125DRYL
2020-07-12 08:00:01FORECAST2020286050.1740.9445.55534.7800040.06140.12140.931.0514FF18.17346.17194448.9369212145815.6140279155910.10270231455826971222125DRYL
2020-07-12 03:58:40FORECAST2020286052.6642.0547.35534.5096773333330.08180.14180.931.0718FF20.66348.66194448.8346036123815.4891373466980.15085366401179971222125DRYL
2020-07-11 23:58:38FORECAST2020286053.6842.448.0434.1603026666670.09180.15180.931.0818FF21.68349.68193448.1342325548915.3084010193690.17433633812027971222125DRYL
2020-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020286053.541.947.735.2245360.13110.19110.931.1211FF21.5349.5193448.5385256094315.7995614427160.17003219383482971222125DRYL
2020-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2020286053.2842.3147.79535.1706893333330.14750.20750.931.1375FF21.28349.28193448.5180959638615.7746906135230.1648646816278971222125DRYL
2020-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2020286053.4142.7248.06533.7539480.11690.17690.931.1069FF21.41349.41193447.9795733865915.1210792251530.16790582303467971222125DRYL
2020-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2020286054.3642.3648.3633.2725533333330.08070.13070.931.0607FF22.36345.36193447.796147197714.8993211900970.19121234904045971222125DRYL
2020-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2020286054.4342.3248.37533.4082815833330.09020.13020.931.0602FF22.43340.43193447.847886545114.96182830020.19300456645282971222125DRYL
2020-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020286054.0242.7748.39533.5763733333330.13810.19810.931.1281FF22.02334.02193447.9119380773815.0392584533430.18265293690783971222125DRYL
2020-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2020286052.642.7247.6635.8723386666670.15590.20590.931.1359FF20.6343.6193448.7840857034116.0989347105630.14954100406246971222125DRYL
2020-07-10 16:00:01FORECAST2020286053.0141.7847.39535.8979773333330.1190.1690.931.099FF21.01344.01193448.793796145616.1107895213750.15866292033879971222125DRYL
2020-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2020286052.942.7247.8134.1566253333330.1540.2140.931.144FF20.9343.9193448.1328336721915.3067052993060.15618059547234971222125DRYL
2020-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2020286053.4842.9348.20533.9990213333330.10490.13490.931.0649FF21.48339.48193448.07286775315.2340389896220.16955818533835971222125DRYL
2020-07-10 04:00:03FORECAST2020286052.7742.2747.5233.889580.10170.14170.931.0717FF20.77343.77193448.0312128695915.1835896310410.1532800179688971222125DRYL
2020-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020286053.8241.3247.5733.285840.10470.13470.891.0247FF21.82341.82193447.8012128370614.90543952230.17773131924543971222125DRYL
2020-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2020286054.8343.4649.14533.9424786666670.13720.15721.021.1772FF22.83356.83193448.0513482787315.2079733305220.20344082947312971222125DRYL
2020-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2020286056.5443.7350.13533.7773306666670.13180.15181.021.1718FF24.54357.54193447.9884771921615.1318549289760.25169215568607972222126DRYL
2020-07-09 11:58:41FORECAST2020286056.1442.849.4732.5894240.15270.17271.021.1927FF24.14357.14193447.5354686290614.5849231421910.23989212088266971222125DRYL
2020-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2020286056.1342.849.46532.110380.10830.14831.031.1783FF24.13359.13193447.3523979585514.364655492360.23960103066144971222125DRYL
2020-07-09 04:00:02FORECAST2020286059.2542.4550.8532.110251750.07870.118711.1187FF27.25357.25193447.3523489169114.3645965446760.33895894192365972222126DRYL
2020-07-08 23:53:58FORECAST2020286059.6743.4551.5634.2646320.02630.04630.910.9563FF27.67368.67193448.1739147020315.3565142592650.35347198166938972221123DRYL
2020-07-08 19:53:46FORECAST2020286060.3542.3951.3735.5194880.01730.03730.910.9473FF28.35366.35193448.6503820466115.93583186130.3774188439922972221123DRYL
2020-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2020286059.6742.8751.2735.4993706666670.03060.05060.940.9906FF27.67367.67193448.642755490815.9265354740830.35347198166938972221123DRYL
2020-07-08 11:53:28FORECAST2020286059.0943.0251.05534.486780.02550.06550.981.0455FF27.09362.09193448.2583747012715.458987951480.33349099287565972221123DRYL
2020-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020286059.1343.0251.07533.650380.02550.05550.920.9755FF27.13368.13193447.9401297235315.0733555824460.33485472602664972221123DRYL
2020-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2020286060.4543.852.12532.8416470833330.01690.03690.991.0269FF28.45374.45193447.6317683092714.7009645581020.38098311444263972221123DRYL
2020-07-08 00:00:05FORECAST2020286059.0441.7950.41535.0158093333330.04610.06610.920.9861FF27.04370.04193448.4593182791815.703165982620.33178941565602972221123DRYL
2020-07-07 19:53:48FORECAST2020286059.0841.850.4436.3998426666670.04610.06611.031.0961FF27.08378.08193448.9837463876316.34293772840.33315040202466972221123DRYL
2020-07-07 15:53:31FORECAST2020286059.3542.6951.0236.3771013333330.06190.08191.021.1019FF27.35377.35193448.9751442916216.3324143200440.34239380105485972221123DRYL
2020-07-07 12:00:02FORECAST2020286058.9142.150.50535.6658333333330.06730.08731.141.2273FF26.91370.91193448.7058503788316.0034680753030.32738158602178972221123DRYL
2020-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2020286058.9542.1150.5335.6316120.06730.09731.21.2973FF26.95365.95193448.6928815334815.9876506619630.32873531788675972222126DRYL
2020-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2020286058.6841.7550.21534.8769186376810.18750.20751.251.4575FF26.68372.68193448.4065889413115.6390401191060.31964203732597972222126DRYL
2020-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2020286062.0943.852.94537.7019506666670.09720.09721.121.2172FF30.09363.09193449.4754516323816.9461013033220.44066636465438972222126DRYL
2020-07-06 20:00:05FORECAST2020286062.1243.8152.96538.6834186666670.09720.09721.121.2172FF30.12381.12193449.8450026282317.4015425717760.44177524616945972222126DRYL
2020-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2020286057.7844.6851.2338.6565226666670.07310.07311.11.1731FF25.78376.78193449.8348877812217.3890525357720.290128766196972221123DRYL
2020-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2020286058.0342.950.46537.4786746666670.16830.16831.021.1883FF26.03379.03193449.3912530750216.8425885720440.29819839465929972222126DRYL
2020-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2020286058.0642.9150.48537.0542973333330.16830.16831.021.1883FF26.06375.06193449.2310864524216.6459422487840.29917357375252972222126DRYL
2020-07-06 03:53:37FORECAST2020286058.8543.951.37536.6429853333330.04970.09971.021.1197FF26.85384.85193449.0756860478816.4554737774090.32535523909774972222126DRYL
2020-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2020286060.4444.6852.5636.1623013333330.13170.18170.961.1417FF28.44385.44193448.8938699124316.2330353904590.38062622714328972222126DRYL
2020-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2020286061.4444.7553.09537.5703880.12310.18311.021.2031FF29.44402.44193449.4258444356216.8851033526740.4167691564576972232127DRYL
2020-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2020286057.1545.0251.08538.0206226666670.18780.19781.061.2578FF25.15398.15193449.595541842817.0939024490210.27025996186388972222126DRYL
2020-07-05 12:00:03FORECAST2020286048.8742.7145.7938.2168760.09870.33870.961.2987FF16.87376.87193449.6694507405217.1849616399380.082521636771765971222125DRYL
2020-07-05 07:54:09FORECAST2020286045.8242.7244.2738.2255680.09110.33110.991.3211FF13.82372.82193449.6727232910217.1889952619060.046983180023328971222125DRYL
2020-07-05 04:00:03FORECAST2020286045.4945.0245.25537.706779250.02090.08091.051.1309FF13.49385.49193449.4772719891816.9483402727880.044016722643895971221122.5DRYL