Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 7, 2020

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DAY 281 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.00°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.11°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.05°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.066 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 372 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.21 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.23 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 45 in SWE DAY: 188 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.22 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 20.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -5 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-08 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	281	-5	46.00004	36.10994	41.05499	44.515987083333	0.019999999999982	0.019999999999982	1.21	1.23	F	F	14.00004	372.00004	188	449.22405305189	19.997652143181	0.065903079610287	91	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-07-08 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	281	-4	41.59	41.59	41.59	46.947574666667	0.0049	0.0049	1.21	1.2149	F	F	9.59	367.59	189	450.6999048992	21.159267437515	0.024216439365993	91	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-07-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-4	51.23	41.89	46.56	47.012446666667	0.1297	0.1297	1.21	1.3397	F	F	19.23	377.23	189	450.72415777901	21.189645428964	0.16976431676519	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-4	46.39	36.72	41.555	46.936405333333	0.1933	0.1933	1.21	1.4033	F	F	14.39	372.39	189	450.69572875756	21.154037406967	0.071348703186891	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	281	-4	51.16	38.42	44.79	46.231841304348	0.1915	0.1915	1.21	1.4015	F	F	19.16	377.16	189	450.43205721615	20.824303387608	0.16790494988551	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	50.64	40.36	45.5	49.434729333333	0.1471	0.1571	1.21	1.3671	F	F	18.64	361.64	188	451.06999639802	22.298523182324	0.15450382869064	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-06 20:00:05	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	50.56	39.08	44.82	50.505304	0.1872	0.2172	1.21	1.4272	F	F	18.56	377.56	188	451.46872293652	22.801565098401	0.15250650333814	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-06 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	50.3	40.97	45.635	50.443585333333	0.1902	0.2202	1.21	1.4302	F	F	18.3	377.3	188	451.44576577745	22.772543009367	0.14613367760935	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	49.97	41.18	45.575	49.125736	0.1035	0.1335	1.21	1.3435	F	F	17.97	376.97	188	450.95471265381	22.153482161787	0.13830551133732	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	49.4	42.06	45.73	48.808724	0.1472	0.1772	1.21	1.3872	F	F	17.4	376.4	188	450.83634311865	22.004746640448	0.12546616988396	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-06 03:53:37	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	49.56	40.99	45.275	48.615368	0.1692	0.2192	1.21	1.4292	F	F	17.56	376.56	188	450.76409885293	21.914062546924	0.12898342412792	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	49.18	41.3	45.24	48.284033333333	0.1204	0.1604	1.21	1.3704	F	F	17.18	378.18	188	450.64021862116	21.758727337245	0.12073976419198	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	49.56	41.12	45.34	49.360621333333	0.1889	0.2289	1.21	1.4389	F	F	17.56	394.56	188	451.04235535072	22.263730907762	0.12898342412792	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	49.89	41.18	45.535	49.292342666667	0.198	0.248	1.21	1.458	F	F	17.89	393.89	188	451.01688394188	22.231678791715	0.13645151737772	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	49.97	40.73	45.35	47.82498	0.073	0.123	1.21	1.333	F	F	17.97	393.97	188	450.46841424155	21.543642901734	0.13830551133732	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-05 07:54:09	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	50.24	40.68	45.46	47.577394666667	0.1161	0.1361	1.21	1.3461	F	F	18.24	393.24	188	450.37567026112	21.427701012278	0.14468873248401	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-05 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	50.42	40.54	45.48	47.58761525	0.1399	0.1799	1.21	1.3899	F	F	18.42	395.42	188	450.37949998456	21.432486361753	0.14905247614665	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-05 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	49.89	41.15	45.52	48.033570666667	0.2228	0.2428	1.21	1.4528	F	F	17.89	386.89	188	450.54650579849	21.641357424892	0.13645151737772	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	50.92	40.6	45.76	49.105184	0.0687	0.1087	1.24	1.3487	F	F	18.92	399.92	188	450.94704160394	22.143837452217	0.16162968354795	91	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	49.99	40.69	45.34	49.128472	0.0669	0.1069	1.24	1.3469	F	F	17.99	397.99	188	450.95573383772	22.154766143086	0.13877167268124	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	46.44	40.5	43.47	48.083573333333	0.1355	0.1555	1.24	1.3955	F	F	14.44	394.44	188	450.56521950192	21.66478577337	0.07207113201164	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	46.43	40.24	43.335	47.87584	0.1604	0.1904	1.24	1.4304	F	F	14.43	388.43	188	450.48745887234	21.567465502979	0.071926200953912	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	50.04	39.89	44.965	47.665799916667	0.1588	0.1888	1.25	1.4388	F	F	18.04	397.04	188	450.40879303227	21.469095409383	0.13994174008602	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	51.68	39.53	45.605	48.019486666667	0.1016	0.1516	1.24	1.3916	F	F	19.68	389.68	188	450.54123437461	21.634758796835	0.18203016602429	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	51.68	39.8	45.74	49.227548	0.1049	0.1549	1.28	1.4349	F	F	19.68	400.68	188	450.99270815646	22.201265188422	0.18203016602429	91	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	53.88	41.4	47.64	48.995050666667	0.1042	0.1442	1.27	1.4142	F	F	21.88	403.88	188	450.90592742895	22.092158760282	0.24959132268257	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 12:03:10	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	52.64	40.36	46.5	48.096057333333	0.0922	0.1322	1.27	1.4022	F	F	20.64	396.64	188	450.56989131945	21.670635325574	0.20998836630732	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	52.65	40.37	46.51	47.864325333333	0.0922	0.1222	1.28	1.4022	F	F	20.65	397.65	188	450.48314739736	21.562071924211	0.21029225176822	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	47.13	39.83	43.48	48.06138925	0.0967	0.1067	1.27	1.3767	F	F	15.13	396.13	188	450.55691731092	21.65439138216	0.082619598810611	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	52.13	41.84	46.985	47.31006	0.0248	0.0448	1.24	1.2848	F	F	20.13	401.13	188	450.27546278953	21.302559161101	0.19483431904132	91	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-02 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	52.14	41.85	46.995	48.346468	0.0248	0.0348	1.28	1.3148	F	F	20.14	412.14	188	450.66356982257	21.787991857193	0.19512492654242	91	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	54.21	41.84	48.025	48.250473333333	0.0358	0.0458	1.27	1.3158	F	F	22.21	414.21	188	450.62766530895	21.742998148252	0.26076118117642	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	54.19	41.53	47.86	46.865438666667	0.0101	0.0101	1.25	1.2601	F	F	22.19	414.19	188	450.10865058641	21.094539357393	0.2600769826558	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	54.2	41.54	47.87	46.761681333333	0.0101	0.0101	1.24	1.2501	F	F	22.2	413.2	188	450.0696959853	21.046015701455	0.26041896634237	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	57.16	43.13	50.145	46.277151916667	0.0052	0.0052	1.29	1.2952	F	F	25.16	424.16	188	449.88764853228	20.81951905656	0.37064055305044	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	54.79	42.94	48.865	47.110546666667	0.0202	0.0202	0.92	0.9402	F	F	22.79	420.79	188	450.20063304934	21.209197932634	0.28099718651778	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-01 20:03:08	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	54.78	42.95	48.865	47.963001333333	0.0202	0.0202	1.07	1.0902	F	F	22.78	434.78	188	450.52009089104	21.6082957201	0.28064196787927	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	56.91	43.11	50.01	47.753136	0.0333	0.0333	1.02	1.0533	F	F	24.91	436.91	188	450.44150791653	21.509994587583	0.36073355964471	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	56.51	43.25	49.88	46.929090666667	0.017	0.017	1	1.017	F	F	24.51	434.51	188	450.13254298097	21.124310921571	0.34507732316729	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	56.51	43.25	49.88	46.910832	0.017	0.017	1.03	1.047	F	F	24.51	430.51	188	450.12568980873	21.115770613502	0.34507732316729	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-01 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	59.59	42.91	51.25	46.798478333333	0.0077	0.0077	1.1	1.1077	F	F	27.59	439.59	188	450.08351220734	21.063223494226	0.47045687212466	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	60.71	43.09	51.9	47.443924	0.0085	0.0085	1.06	1.0685	F	F	28.71	434.71	188	450.32564874914	21.365215854505	0.51750256076478	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	60.71	43.1	51.905	48.792041333333	0.0083	0.0083	1.16	1.1683	F	F	28.71	444.71	188	450.83011131514	21.9969214256	0.51750256076478	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	60.24	42.49	51.365	48.528657333333	0.0071	0.0071	1.2	1.2071	F	F	28.24	450.24	188	450.73168932376	21.873403700467	0.49775209325506	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-06-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	53.16	40.87	47.015	48.338854666667	0.0004	0.0004	1.17	1.1704	F	F	21.16	444.16	188	450.66072255659	21.784423171638	0.22612915024638	91	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-06-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	43.3	40.86	42.08	48.595405333333	0.0004	0.0004	1.38	1.3804	F	F	11.3	423.3	188	450.75663811241	21.904701535763	0.036525380634355	91	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-06-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	281	-5	43.17	42.64	42.905	48.571769833333	0.0003	0.0203	1.43	1.4503	F	F	11.17	434.17	188	450.74780421764	21.89361859934	0.035438053836028	91	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L