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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 2, 2020

[ Wednesday, July 1, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, July 3, 2020 ]

DAY 276 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/03/2020 12:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.20°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.054
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 368

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.46 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 57 in
SWE DAY: 183
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 25.72 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -9

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2020276-940.240.240.256.9551733333330.00360.46362.472.9336FF8.2368.2184451.6418001710925.7233370133230.053595230418867901122124DRYL
2020-07-02 12:00:01FORECAST2020276-951.2640.4445.8557.00370.03090.49092.472.9609FF19.26379.26184451.6598265143225.7462812526740.26786279972325902123127.5DRYL
2020-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2020276-947.0335.6841.35556.9558666666670.04310.50312.472.9731FF15.03375.03184451.642057741325.7236648217730.15908968855885901123126DRYL
2020-07-02 04:00:04FORECAST2020276-951.137.8944.49556.9449145833330.08010.54012.473.0101FF19.1379.1184451.6379890386225.7184867083920.26316487150834902123127.5DRYL
2020-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2020276-1050.8538.5344.6957.5194080.11310.19312.472.6631FF18.85375.85183451.295219847225.9582338788410.25590945982825902122125DRYL
2020-07-01 20:03:07FORECAST2020276-1051.9137.4144.6658.6031026666670.11590.31592.472.7859FF19.91384.91183451.698207003326.4709163993630.28737168103793902122125DRYL
2020-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2020276-1052.2737.9245.09558.5810173333330.08370.28372.472.7537FF20.27385.27183451.6900053283126.4604600314310.29845789633431902122125DRYL
2020-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2020276-1053.2539.1146.1857.7945280.0750.2752.472.745FF21.25386.25183451.3976321839926.0883130923910.32957646597496902122125DRYL
2020-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2020276-1053.5739.3746.4757.5934093333330.08460.31462.472.7846FF21.57386.57183451.3227735885525.9932172407410.34001291179829902122125DRYL
2020-07-01 04:00:03FORECAST2020276-1054.139.2746.68557.7851116666670.07530.36532.472.8353FF22.1386.1183451.3941281736526.0838601021920.35756751322238902122125DRYL
2020-07-01 00:00:01FORECAST2020276-1053.8437.5945.71558.5804533333330.06540.33542.472.8054FF21.84375.84183451.6897958735726.4601930083150.34891539439814902122125DRYL
2020-06-30 20:00:03FORECAST2020276-1052.4939.2145.8559.5168760.07380.44382.472.9138FF20.49386.49183452.037145576926.9038387406940.30532708665272902122125DRYL
2020-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2020276-1053.1139.1846.14559.4148680.07550.46552.472.9355FF21.11388.11183451.9993475681126.8554815718460.32505130618014902122125DRYL
2020-06-30 12:00:02FORECAST2020276-1052.8338.6745.7558.5299786666670.07270.45272.472.9227FF20.83390.83183451.6710496971726.4362969031260.31607846873806902122125DRYL
2020-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2020276-1048.7839.0543.91558.4373186666670.09590.65592.473.1259FF16.78380.78183451.6366297275326.3924336529270.20005773284217901123126DRYL
2020-06-30 04:00:04FORECAST2020276-1054.0639.246.6358.49185650.09730.70732.473.1773FF22.06385.06183451.65688961826.4182499747730.35623151303774902123127.5DRYL
2020-06-29 23:58:49FORECAST2020276-1052.183945.5958.8305186666670.15640.83642.53.3364TF20.18395.18183451.7826341293226.5786066904210.29566816539375902123127.5DRYL
2020-06-29 19:53:57FORECAST2020276-1052.438.8845.6460.0819306666670.18360.94362.53.4436TF20.4386.4183452.2463434524527.1718334515640.30250848936853902123127.5DRYL
2020-06-29 16:03:04FORECAST2020276-1052.3639.0345.69560.009880.17360.95362.53.4536TF20.36387.36183452.2196851278127.1376490381580.30125953144091902123127.5DRYL
2020-06-29 12:00:01FORECAST2020276-1054.9540.1447.54557.8999653333330.11240.63242.53.1324FF22.95403.95183451.4368618509226.1381786513570.38634624747862902133129DRYL
2020-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2020276-1054.9639.1747.06557.635980.09340.67342.493.1634FF22.96404.96183451.3386220529226.0133437938690.38668892782651902133129DRYL
2020-06-29 04:00:03FORECAST2020276-1058.5540.0549.356.9991383333330.07240.58242.493.0724FF26.55408.55183451.1013557701225.7123885798950.513364196708819031331210.5DRYL
2020-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2020276-1059.9538.3849.16556.2513826666670.0350.4552.212.665FF27.95411.95183450.8222762503125.3593763760140.56311336222943903132127DRYL
2020-06-28 20:00:04FORECAST2020276-1059.9638.4449.257.434680.01390.39392.312.7039FF27.96425.96183451.2636657662325.918184238910.56346608796926903132127DRYL
2020-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2020276-1060.8842.7151.79557.1721706666670.00210.32212.32.6221FF28.88426.88183451.1658599105625.794131541780.59566566820698903132127DRYL
2020-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020276-1060.9742.3451.65555.8301040.00320.28322.292.5732FF28.97428.97183450.6648118214125.160663313130.59878478683217903132127DRYL
2020-06-28 08:00:04FORECAST2020276-1060.9842.3451.6655.7719386666670.00320.22322.262.4832FF28.98421.98183450.6430576956225.1332369743590.59913097128737903132127DRYL
2020-06-28 04:00:04FORECAST2020276-1060.7542.0651.40555.3587164166670.00280.17282.332.5028FF28.75429.75183450.4884179497124.9384605782710.591149570792903132127DRYL
2020-06-27 23:54:33FORECAST2020276-1062.841.6852.2457.9884560.00310.14312.572.7131FF30.8441.8183451.4697781282226.1800353643180.66058902621798903132127DRYL
2020-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2020276-1062.841.752.2558.9752266666670.00310.14312.482.6231FF30.8441.8183451.8363309138826.6471500318810.66058902621798903132127DRYL
2020-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2020276-1062.3241.2151.76558.8956320.00330.15332.522.6733FF30.32442.32183451.8067981704726.6094469201460.64471436621658903132127DRYL
2020-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020276-1059.3340.2249.77557.984120.00280.09282.62.6928FF27.33439.33183451.4681654188826.1779842798280.54115738632806903132127DRYL
2020-06-27 08:00:01FORECAST2020276-1059.3340.2449.78557.5682706666670.00280.09282.652.7428FF27.33437.33183451.3134140094125.9813327731910.54115738632806903132127DRYL
2020-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2020276-1059.3939.949.64557.6835950.00280.08282.732.8128FF27.39441.39183451.3563464219126.0358566876810.54328875037634903131123.5DRYL
2020-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2020276-1063.1742.8152.9957.5570293333330.00240.04242.662.7024FF31.17446.17183451.3092284648225.9760185011530.67263600294378903131123.5DRYL
2020-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2020276-1063.1842.825359.6915640.00240.03242.72.7324FF31.18462.18183452.1018516659426.9866666132360.67295918694597903131123.5DRYL
2020-06-26 16:00:02FORECAST2020276-1062.4942.7452.61559.5589973333330.00220.03222.692.7222FF30.49464.49183452.0527503444226.9238085522890.65036712021558903131123.5DRYL
2020-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2020276-1060.8639.8550.35557.3188120.0020.0222.642.662FF28.86461.86183451.2205036498525.8634232192510.59497169679692903131123.5DRYL
2020-06-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020276-1058.8539.3349.0957.3646773333330.00320.00322.732.7332FF26.85456.85183451.2375905146825.8850987805450.52406898840476903131123.5DRYL
2020-06-26 04:00:05FORECAST2020276-1061.1639.4450.356.8709330833330.00310.01312.772.7831FF29.16460.16183451.0535442793625.6518359337120.60534873485169903131123.5DRYL
2020-06-25 23:54:10FORECAST2020276-1058.2139.9349.0761.2752513037160.00190.02192.612.6319FF26.21461.21183452.6871563016327.7385192643470.50122086236244903131123.5DRYL
2020-06-25 20:00:03FORECAST2020276-1058.2339.9349.0863.4128386666670.00190.02192.612.6319FF26.23460.23183453.4734488480428.7560386514170.50193531743858903131123.5DRYL
2020-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2020276-1057.5438.5248.0363.8532880.00650.03652.562.5965FF25.54460.54183453.6349344494428.9660821162610.47729869389183902131123DRYL
2020-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2020276-1057.0741.8949.4861.5489240.00030.02032.512.5303FF25.07466.07183452.7880628338527.8686180674680.46056106062682902131123DRYL
2020-06-25 08:00:02FORECAST2020276-1044.6239.6742.14562.1476880.00060.02062.492.5106FF12.62429.62183453.0085901177428.1534365199570.11232807001474901131122.5DRYL
2020-06-25 03:54:28FORECAST2020276-1043.5943.1543.3761.314240.00060.01062.482.4906FF11.59455.59183452.7015362046127.7570506392180.095670724498155901131122.5DRYL